Race Day tomorrow!

The boys and girls are deep in sleep tonight as I write this, awaiting race starts tomorrow. The women are on a Super Combi, and what amounts to another training run on the Downhill for most. And the men are onto Super G tomorrow, a dreaded break in the program of Downhill. This is an issue the athletes constantly bring up as inherently unfair and even unsafe in the scheduling. Breaking up the downhill training routine with a Super- G. One issue that is often described by many of the top speed guys is that is ruins the rhythm of the week. They would much rather be racing downhill tomorrow, or have the week start one day later so the downhill could still be on Saturday after 2 training runs and then have SG on Sunday after the main event, so to speak. The other thing they mention is that they are used to certain gate placements on blind knolls, etc. and it can get confusing. In fact, they often say that it is not the Super -G race that bothers them, it is switching back to downhill on the day after. Increasing the speed back up to 80 MPH or so and then being a little unsure about which direction to go when approaching a blind roll. And Groeden has an unbelievable number of jumps and blind bumps and rolls. I think we were told last year that there are 26 actual jumps on the way down the Saslong; that you actually leave the ground for a noticeable amount of time at 26 different spots on the hill. Add to that all the rough bumps and high speeds, tough light and shadows and you have a great spectacle of sport. Nothing is like it, anywhere in any sport. 80 miles per hour, jumping 26 different times? Going in and out of shadows and going as fast as you can handle. It sounds cool to me. It cannot be explained and TV dulls it down too much to really appreciate it. You need to look for all the little compressions and bumps and jerky little rollers all the way down this hill. Unlike Kitzbuhel and Beaver Creek, it is not at all visually intimidating. The Saslong is more of a puzzle…a piece by piece run that requires you to have a tactical plan and put that plan together with execution on race day. That is why I think you see very disjointed training run times and splits. With guys all over the map during training runs. They are playing sections to see how they can figure out entry to Ciaslat, or double the Camel, or where do you aim when you land the Spinel Jump near the top. How much direction do you need exiting the Ciaslat to make it work to the bottom.
So looking at splits, I see the guys with interesting splits. I will doubt someone who is slow all the way down and wins the last split, ending up 5th on the run, is going to win. It will be someone who is fast in sections and does not push through the finish. That is why I am not super high on the winners from today. While I like Cuche, Svindal and Heel in general, I just don’t think they are going to be that fast. I think they are great downhillers, but with Olsson winning all the way down and pulling 33rd at the bottom split, he becomes a podium favorite. But I do not think he will win. He is likely playing it cool, and I think he will have some nerves come Saturday. So I look for him to be in the mix, maybe 3rd. I think Walchhofer is tough to beat on this hill, a 3 peat never happens but I am thinking about calling for it, at least just to jinx him! And the rest? Watch out for Staudacher(ITA) who is at home and has been skiing well this season. Klaus Kroell (AUT)is a standard top performer here, as is Ambrosi Hoffmann (SUI). But watch out for Old Man Jaerbyn (SWE). He is just about 60 years old now and still out there fighting. Really, he just turned 40 in April and is still in the top 10 occasionally. He cannot always train effectively but he keeps going. Make sure you watch him on the Saslong. He loves this course and can be a factor here. But I am going out on a limb here by predicting another big North American day at possibly our favorite stop on tour. Bode, Marco, Nyman, Fish and Weibrecht will all be in the top 15. I think Mac will shake his funk and get in the 30. Our friend Worm Transue will get his first points and it will be a big party. Because Manny Osborne-Paradis is going to win this race. And if he does, watch out Wolkenstein, and everyone should just close their eyes and walk away, it will be ugly. I think Robbie will be in the points and Guay will challenge for a top 10 too. I just think it sets up great for all the North Americans. We might feel the ripples from the party all the way over here.
SG Podium: Heel, Cuche, Defago
DH Podium: Manny O-P, Bode, Walchhofer and Olsson will tie for 3rd! How’s that for a call!? If this one comes true on Saturday, someone has to give me some credit.
In Val d’Isere I am inclined to just wrap this one up for Lindsey Vonn in the DH. She was taking it easy out of the start and then cruised at the bottom, winning all the turning splits. That tells me she is confident and ready to go. No doubt, she wins another cow. Ingrid Jacquemod made herself felt today and she Tweeted that she was ready to go. I am a little worried about Maria Riesch at this race as her splits have been all over the place. And the training video I was sent on-line looks like she just isn’t skiing very well. Her pressure not well distributed and often miss-timing entries into blind turns. Maybe the Combined will give her the opportunity to figure things out. I am still hanging tough on my prediction for Julia to bust out and I do think that Leanne Smith will get it done. I am very high on Stacey Cook, as you all know. I think her skiing skills are remarkable and she just needs to figure out how to channel the talent into speed. But I think she has it with an excellent training run today, I am ready to say she will get herself into the top 10 again.
The Super Combi is tomorrow. It will provide another training run for the downhillers in the guise of a race. Maybe even forcing Stacey or Leanne to run some slalom to finish off the race and get their FIS point back-ups out of it. But there are only 2 real leaders in this discipline right now. Mrs. Vonn and Maria Riesch. They are the 2 best downhillers in the world and among the top 5 slalom skiers in the world. It’s tough to beat that combination. They need to give it away for someone else to win.
Combi Podium: Vonn, Riesch, Goergl
I honestly can’t see the Super G shaping up. So this is a total guess and maybe a little sentiment for her to win at home, so here it goes. Ingrid Jacquemod wins! Vonn second and Fabienne Suter will finish 3rd.
Have a great weekend everyone watching these races on classic hills. It should be excellent action and don’t turn off that TV until the last person goes…both places have a history of the light improving a little in the early afternoon. It could be the difference between scoring and not scoring, or 11th and 10th or 3rd and 4th…Keep a keen eye on that sunlight late in the runs. Right around number 50…