The Lake and The Beav...

We are on the eve of the Lake Louise Women’s World Cup DH and for the FIS Men’s World Cup Super Combi in Beaver Creek, Colorado. I am on the plane flying home from the Women’s NorAms in Aspen and Loveland Valley, Colorado. I have been on a lot of injected hills over the last 8 seasons. I have done probably 40 nights worth of injection myself during that time. I have been on hand-watering missions on the glacier in Soelden with about 5 psi and I have been on the end of a bar that had so much pressure one evening that when one of the coaches who was holding a bar-end, tried to answer his phone, the pressure blew the bar 10 feet in the air above us and sent us all scrambling for cover. I have been on the bars in all conditions as well as hand-watering a number of times. Anyway, all of this anecdotal background is being included because you know that almost 100% of all Men’s World Cup Tech Events over the last 8 years have been injected, with varying degrees of success. I just wanted to go on record that the GS hill in Aspen was as hard and slick as anything I have been on in that time with the exception of a few well-documented venues. Add to that the difficulty of Aspen as a GS hill and the relative experience of the athletes racing in the Nor Ams, I think they all did well and deserve a pat on the back. So if you are sitting at home reading this just give a little thought or energy or whatever you want to the boys and girls who hit the Aspen and Loveland Nor Ams on the injection this past week and energized their learning curve. They might not know it yet, but they have.
On to the Lake Louise World Cup! Training runs are now over and there are people happy, or wondering, relaxed or stressed. And some of them know exactly where they are, or think they do… With regard to DH races on hills that are repeated annually, it gets increasingly hard to figure out who did what in training. You can read the splits on-line, but when Lindsey Vonn has the highest speed in Gunbarrel and then pulls 48th place on the bottom split, you tend to think she stood up before the finish. And then Stacey Cook has the 3rd highest speed and also is not fast at the bottom, you start to wonder. Did she stand up too? Does she have the history and confidence to stand up? Then on run 3 she is making up time on the bottom. Where was Alice McKennis today? The darling of the first 2 runs was 36th with some tough splits in the turns in the middle of the hill. Maria Holaus(AUT) was around a lot but was fast on the bottom today. Was she looking for confidence based in a training run win? And let’s not forget Keely Kelleher stepping up today in run 3. That could give her the confidence she needs to put one down tomorrow. Those training runs need to be about each athlete within their tactical plan and what their service guys need to know on skis. Then keeping it in perspective and putting it down on race day, which is tomorrow. We can treat training runs like they are real races and often we do. But they are not. The better you are, the more you mess with line and with skis trying to optimize your chances. There is a good chance that if you have little experience or have a lower confidence level, you will push harder in the training runs to gain confidence, etc.

The Lake Louise Preview:

Lindsey Vonn has won the last 3 Downhills in Lake Louise. In the 2007 season she won the 2nd DH after "losing" to Maria Riesch in the first of two races. Lindsey's last 3 wins have come by 1.33, .78 and .61 at The Lake. Which is obviously a decreasing trend, but not enough to cry about. With regard to the Lake Louise Women's DH there is no preview. Lindsey is the winner until someone else steals it from her.
Who else can win? Riesch, she won one in the 2007 season. And Goetschl....oh sorry, she's retired. Then who? Holaus, maybe but I am thinking a top 5 for her. But not a win. I could see Nadia Styger and Dominique Gisin of Switzerland making a push for the podium too.

AMERICANS?
They have all looked great in training but that does not necessarily mean much. Stacey Cook has the best recent result outside of Vonn in 4th in second race in the 2007 season. But Keely Kelleher, Chelsea Marshall, Leanne Smith, Julia Mancuso, surprise girl Alice McKennis and the aforementioned Cook have all had strong training runs. Maybe with a little confidence built they can put together "the day." The day when they all score, when 5 are in the top 10, when you have the ultimate team finish. Something like Lindsey in first and all the others in the top 20? It is not out of the question. Laurenne Ross could also make a push for her first World Cup points.

CANADIANS:
I do not know where they are physically. With litle or no inside knowledge, I do not know where to go with them. I think that Vanderbeek is good and so is Britt Janyk. She is the best technical skier of the bunch and has been strong in training. Brydon? I also have no idea. But on the hill in Lake Louise I think she is their best bet. She is the only one with 2 top tens there to back it up and is very big, which certainly does not hurt on that bottom flat section. I think all 3 will score points but I doubt any of them make the steps.

Dark Horses?
Maria Holaus(AUT): She has been in there in the past and is an up and comer.
Andrea FIschbacher(AUT): She has been fast in training and has a solid history on the hill. Maybe she sneaks onto the podium.
Nadia Styger(SUI): Solid results here in the past and some strong training gets her in the conversation. I am not a fan of her skill set but she can go fast and is a strong glider.

It is obvious to me as the first Downhill of the season approaches that we will miss Lara Gut(SUI) challenging the established stars for wins.

The podium? Vonn(USA), Riesch(GER), Holaus(AUT)

THE SUPER COMBI AT THE BEAV
In all honesty I am not a fan of Super Combi. To make it it's own discipline and give a globe for it seems contrived. In addition, it forces development programs to put them on the calendar at the Continental Cup level, at least. Asking developing athletes and programs to spend more money, more time on the road and miss more school. Personally, I like the traditional combined or paper combined that still takes place at Kitzbuhel and until recently took place in Wengen. Using the already established Downhill and slalom races and then just combining the times. Hence the name. NOW, we race Downhill in the morning and Slalom in the afternoon. I makes for a very long day for the athletes with a tough recovery and turn around to the real Downhill in the morning. Add in the shortened course for Downhill in Wengen and you are heavily favoring slalom skiers at that venue. I was the Combi coach for the USA for a while and I have not seen the kind of interest with the live crowd that the FIS claims is there. We will see as it develops. The up-side is that a lot of the top skiers on the tour do compete in the event. The Swiss have an excellent Combi team.

Super Combi in The Beav. After the DH portion is done, The slalom starts at below the Golden Eagle jump and heads down the bottom rolling section to the finish. It is a very moderate slalom hill. The guys really can rip this hill up.

As I said above, the Swiss have an excellent Combi team. Even without Daniel Albrecht in the race. Zurbriggen, Janka and Defago have all challenged for or have won Combis. The French have JB Grange and Julien Lizeroux. Both of whom are acceptable Downhillers and excellent Slalom skiers. Especially on moderate slalom hills. Norway has 3 real threats in Lars Myhre, Aksel Lund Svindal and Kjietl Jansrud. The Austrians put most of their hope in Benni Raich.

Dark Horses:
Natko Zrncic-Dim(CRO): He goes for it. High risk versus reward type guy in both ends of the discipline. He could put down some fast runs and could also put it in the fence. A fun guy to watch.
Onrej Bank(CZE): On his way back from a major knee injury. He is a skilled skier with some hope in this event.
Markus Larsson(SWE): A very aggressive skier who has occasionally threateed in this discipline. A very fast slalom guy who can compete with a decent DH run.

Americans:

Ted and Bode hold all of our hope. They start 32 and 33. Andrew Weibrecht really needs to win the DH portion to have a chance at the podium by the end of the day. But he could rack up some World Cup points for sure.

Check out the races on Universal Sports TV and www.universalsports.com. I am planning on watching all day long!