Soelden: Women's Preview

Look on the calendar and it is 3 days away. What is going on in Soelden? What are the teams doing? How are they acting? What is happening with hill prep? And who are the girls to watch?
Soelden: The weather is iffy and all the coaches and athletes know it. The FIS is acutely aware of their situation. The forecast is for a cool night tonight and very cold tomorrow night. That is the good news. The bad news is that there is a slight warming trend into the weekend. With barely freezing temperatures at night and warm and sunny during the day. Will the hill break down? Probably. But FIS will try to get a preemptive strike against mother nature by trying to freeze the piste as hard as they can!
FIS will inject the hill, possibly twice to take advantage of the cold night on Thursday. They have already done it once and will likely do it again so there is water in the hill and near the surface on Thursday. If is gets warm on Friday, they will cancel the free ski on the race hill to try to preserve the surface. If this weather forecast holds true, the hill will break down in the afternoon of the women's race and likely re-freeze for Sunday. Leaving a very bumpy, icy surface in the morning on Sunday and a broken down, rutted, bumpy and dark 2nd run for the boys.
The athletes are tapering their training down, making some last minute ski selections if necessary, going to press conferences. Some are trying on new uniforms. The coaches are scrambling around getting boots and skis measured, suits plombed and figuring out how to get the athletes to the bib draw on time through the crazy traffic in Soelden. 20,000 fans on a glacier with only 1 way in and out? Tough traffic.
MY 7 FAVORITES:
Katrin Zettel(AUT): I think she is the favorite. She has great start position and a good draw will nail it down. She has steadily improved since October 2005. She was 5th that year, 3rd in 2007 and won last year. Same course setters as last year, which will help her cause.
Tanja Poutiainen (FIN): Very solid skier with good history on the hill and with the course setters. Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races in Soelden. The down-side? If she wins the first run, she will not win the race. Not a great leader going into run 2. I also think she misses her former coach, Michael Bont.
Andrea Fischbacher (AUT): 3rd last year. 5th in 2005. She is not that consistent but when she is confident she can let it rip.
Tina Maze (SLO): 2 wins on this hill. Very up and down from year to year. From all reports out of Slovenia, she is on her game so look for a big show from her. A lot of time on snow this summer but only in Europe on glaciers? Good for Soelden, maybe not so good later in the year?
Niki Hosp (AUT): Part of the famous 3-way tie in October, 2002 with Maze and Flemmen. It was her rookie year on the World Cup and I think she can regain that form. A lot of Men's team coaches were switched to the Women's side in Austria this year and I think it has helped her skiing. From all reports she is healthy again. Start number will hurt.
Denise Karbon (ITA): My favorite female GS skier with Lara Gut out of the field. I think that when Denise is on, she will win. She can get on a roll and keep it going like no other. She is traditionally strong on men's hills, as Soelden is. And if they get the surface very hard, it is even more in her favor. My pick to win.
Viktoria Rebensburg (GER): Young up and comer and I think a dark horse to win this race. I think she has a real chance of making a big splash this season in GS.

THE AMERICANS:
Lindsey Vonn: Great all around skier. Very professional. Hard working. I cannot say enough positive about Lindsey's approach to the sport and to her professional life. Her GS has improved a great deal in the last year and a half but I think the podium is asking a lot of her in GS. 7th-10th place is my guess, and I think she should be happy with that with the late ski company switch. Remember what comes with that. Every time she looked down, put her skis on, picked up her skis, walked into the ski room for HER ENTIRE LIFE, the skis said Rossignol. Now they say Head. New service man. Should it matter? No. But sometimes it does. It will be interesting to watch.

Julia Mancuso: She definitely lost her way after the magical 2006 season.
She was 2nd in the Soelden GS in 2007. The word on the street is that she is "rededicated." We'll see, but I wouldn't bet on her. Not this early in the season with only one top 5 on this hill in her career. Start number will not help.
Sarah Schleper: I hope Sarah can find her old form. She was out for a while and has now had a year to get back into the fold and get moving up the WCSL. She is 44 on the WCSL and 41 on the FIS list. Tough move from there to the top 30 if the course starts to break up.
Resi Steigler: Resi stands in 37th on the FIS list. It means she only needs to move up 7 spots to get a 2nd run. She has been out of World Cup GS for a long time and Soelden is a potentially rude welcome back. I think this is a race for Resi to get her feel back and be used to starting World Cup GS again. She can do it, but it is a stretch.
Megan McJames: Megan is an excellent young skier. Tons of talent and a technically solid skier. She really has great potential in GS. The main obstacle in Soelden is her start number. While she holds 36 on the WCSL, this is a double bummer. First of all, skiers outside the 30 are seeded by FIS points. Her FIS rank is 63. To add a little insult to that, 31-35 ranked on the WCSL are protected to starting right after 45 if ranked worse than 45 on the FIS list. This is a problem in that she did not score enough WC points to get into the 30 AND did not get good FIS point scores at Europa Cup and NorAm Cup to start earlier on the FIS list. Or, she did not get the opportunity to do so? Regardless, Megan has a tall order to get into the 30. Hopefully she finishes 29 or 30, gets a clean 2nd run and can reproduce her 14th place from last year. She is certainly a good enough skier to do it.
Jess Kelley: Healthy? Starting 55 or so? Tall order for Jess. She will need to toughen up and get it done. Simple as that.

THE CANADIANS:
Sorry, not this week. Not starting any girls in the top 30 is bad news in Soelden. Christina Lustenberger at 32 is the best number. But Marie-Michelle Gagnon at 38 is their best shot at scoring points. She is their best skier and only 20 years old.

Other skiers to look for: Kathrin Hoelzl (GER), Michaela Kirchgasser (AUT) and Tessa Worley (FRA). All 3 of these girls are very strong competitors and have the mental toughness to compete on a tough hill like Soelden.

Alpine Race Consulting will be presenting at Mt. Hood Community College and Seattle Pacific University this weekend at the PSIA-NW Fall Seminars. Men's preview tomorrow!