Racing on the Face de Bellevarde, not nice.

Val d’Isere hosted this same race series last season on the Face de Bellevarde and again hosted on the Face in February for the World Alpine Ski Championships. There is one name that appeared at the top of the list in both GS races and the Super-G in the December races. The name is Janka, Carlo Janka. After the can he opened on everyone in Beaver Creek last week, I will go out on a limb to say he will continue to own the World Cup and open up his overall lead; which is already 105 points as of today. He could conceivably win all 3 races in Val d’Isere and add another 300 points onto his total.
Add to it that the hill on the Face de Bellevarde favors the type of skier Janka is. He can do it all. The SG there favors guys who can ski GS at the World Cup level. The top 4 at the World Cup SG last December was: Janka, Kucera, Ligety, Raich. All of them have very strong career GS resumes. And the World Championship SG was won by Cuche, with Ligety on his way to a podium finish before he took that power –slide all the way down the pitch. The GS on the Face allows the slalom/GS hybrid type guy to shine, or at least someone with solid slalom skills. The World Championship GS went like this: Janka, Raich, Ligety, Hirscher, Blardone. Everyone in that group is a skilled slalom skier except Max, who loves steep GS races to match his intensity and hop and slide style. The December GS saw Janka win and Blardone in second, Gauthier deTessieres(FRA) in 3rd with a charging 2nd run to move up to 3rd. Aksel was 4th and we know he has all the skills. And the Super Combi was Raich, Grange and Hirscher. The World Champs Super Combi went to Aksel with Julien Lizeroux second and Natko Zrncic-Dim(CRO). We saw “Nacho” display his skills again in Beaver Creek. He did the same thing in Wengen last year. But these were all DH combined races. I just don’t see him pulling it off on a GS-like Super-G like the Face de Bellevarde.
Your Super-G course setter is Hans Flatscher(SUI), the Combi Setters are Andy Evers(AUT) for SG and Reto Schlaeppi(SUI) for the slalom portion and Peter Korfiatis(USA) for GS run 1 and Christian Leitner(FIN) for the 2nd run of GS. They all have their own interests and all but Pete are very experienced World Cup course setters. They will be dictated to by the severity of the hill and difficulty of making minimum turns for GS and Super-G. Reto will have some freedom to move around the hill and set something in the normal ranges. The GS at 450 meters of vertical with no flat sections presents the most problems. First of all, I measured with my watch a couple of times while there in February and got 440 meters. Even that small difference in vertical gets you down to 48 turns from 50 turns which makes a huge difference when you are trying to squeeze in turns. That would allow you to spread each turn out 1 meter all the way down. Anyway, the FIS measured as they did and it is possible that my watch is off. So to get 50 turns, there needs to be a clear strategy and Peter will have a couple of days to plan it out. Pete has only had 1 other World Cup set. It was the GS in Sestriere which is a very fun hill to set on with no problem making the minimum turns. The only real way to get it stretched out to close to normal (and here I am talking 24-25 meters) is to try to meander around the hill as much as they will let you and eliminate the delays. Last year we saw sets as small as 19 meters in some places on this hill. It is relentless and steep. It has not one flat area to make up gate count. Look for very tight (18-20m) out of the start and gradually relaxing the distances as the set continues to the main pitch. And even there you need to keep your head because it is very steep and probably icy there too. It will be a lot of work to get the gate count up to minimum and have the race have any flow at all. It will be a chore. If Pete does a good job, look for Herr Leitner to match it or move it over. Christian has a ton of experience and might reset the whole thing. Also, Finland is missing the great Kalle Palander and Marcus Sandell has not expressed that he will race in Val d’Isere. So it is possible that Leitner will be without an athlete in the second run. There is certainly no guarantee that Jukka Leino will qualify. If that is the case, who knows what Leitner will do? The slalom portion of the SG Combi is not an exceptionally difficult task for the course setter. I set the slalom for the Super Combi at World Championships last year and made minimum turns with a few to spare. The hill is very wide and still steep but with a few big rolls. So there is a flat spot on which to traverse out from the start to the middle of the trail and then edge back to skier’s right, then back to the left a little. Hans Pieren, FIS Technical Race Director, will try to keep the setter to the right to stay out of the potential GS track. And to have the gates closer to the TV platforms. But you can do what you want in order to make a nice set and a good race, within reason. Reto should have some leeway. If you work the hill, there should be little problem making minimum turns. And I have said many times in the past; if the hill is difficult enough, don’t set anything tricky. Just let the hill and the athletes shine!
CANADIANS
The Canadians start L-P Helie, Ryan Semple, Robbie Dixon, Mike Janyk and Manny Osborne-Paradis in the Combi. It is pretty obvious that they start Robbie and Manny to get them an extra shot at the Super-G hill. Mike is almost strictly a slalom skier these days and will likely leave himself too much time to make up after the SG portion of the day in the Super Combi. I can get behind Louis-Pierre for some points but that is about it in the Combi race. The GS boys are all good enough to get it done on this hill. The loss of Johnny K definitely will be felt this week in all events.
AMERICANS
Starting just 3 boys in the Combi (Ligety, Miller and Weibrecht), it looks as though some tactical and budget oriented decision making went on this week. Obviously, Ligety has a chance to win the Combi with good success last year in Super G on this hill. Miller can win any race at any time. And Andrew has been on fire of late so it is clear to me why these guys are in the SC. Ligety, Miller and Weibrecht have the best developed GS skills of the group starting the SG so they are the ones who can score here in that discipline. And Ligety is the current GS World Championship Bronze Medalist on this hill.
Super Combi Podium:
Janka, Ligety, Raich. Some good dark-horses: Hirscher, Zurbriggen, Kostelic, Viletta(SUI)
As we look toward the SG, I still think Janka should win. Watch for Cuche to pull it together and challenge. But I still think the GS guys will do well in this Super-G. Any time Ted and Benni have been presented with a Super-G like this, they have done well or at least been in the hunt. Ted was 3rd in December last season and was in the game for a podium when he crashed. He was also in there in the SG in Lenzerheide which is similar. Benni has been in the top 5 in this Super-G and had a great finish in Lake Louise.
I think we could see Janka, Cuche, Raich for the Super-G podium.
And the GS? Janka again, followed by Blardone and Ligety. I think Aksel could be in the conversation but if his leg is still at all bothersome, this hill will bring that out. And the GS is the third race in 3 days. Sorry Bode fans, I just cannot reconcile my image of Bode’s movement patterns and attitude with this hill. I watched him live twice in GS last year on the hill and he will find it hard to get past the first interval timer without a major mistake.
I think it is entirely possible for Janka to sweep these 3 races for 6 wins in a row. The biggest foe for him is probably the Face de Bellevarde itself. It is a relentless, steep, icy face that requires the course setters to keep the boys turning the whole way. One bobble and it can be over. But he is the most likely to win in each situation.
Before you go, please read this. I have stood on the Face de Bellevarde and watched the best in the world look humbled, angered and even confused. The hill is simply difficult to the point of being unfair. The GS has to be set 4-8 meters shorter distance per gate than the most difficult World Cup GS races in order to fit in the minimum number of turns on the hill. Add to that what they did to the hill with the incredibly slick ice, and the recipe is for awful skiing. To put a product on TV that simply looks like it is, difficult. It is so far out of the ordinary that ski manufacturers all made new (slightly shorter) models to try to grab the advantage at World Championships. In my humble opinion, I would much rather see these races take place at the old venue in La Daille.
Good luck to all!

Soelden: Men's preview. Aksel, Ted, Didier and then?

Soelden is always an interesting race. This is my first time not there in 8 years! It feels strange, empty. But exciting nonetheless. As a coach, you have had a full preparation period. You've done your coaching. You picked the best GS skis. You have watched hours of video. You left no stone unturned in your quest for greatness. Now, here it is. You find out how good your program has been. Will there be validation of your program? Or is there a lot more work to do before Beaver Creek?
3 days away and all the teams stream into Soelden. A tiny resort town at the end of a steep Tirolean valley. The Oetztal winds south from the autobahn toward Italy and ends here. By Friday night there will be thousands of people partying in the street and flowing in one large mass from bar to bar. Drive through town on Friday or Saturday night? It can't be done. All of these revelers welcoming the new race season will end up at the glacier on Sunday morning to see the ski stars. No doubt disappointed that Miller, Albrecht and Palander will not race. They are simply not ready or recovered enough to race so soon. Marcus Sandell will not be there either. And of course, 2005 Champion and ultimate Austrian ski star Hermann Maier announced his retirement this month. If you look it up, you'll see that 4 of the last 5 winners (Miller twice) at Soelden will not race.

MILLER, MAIER, PALANDER, SANDELL, ALBRECHT, NEUREUTHER WILL NOT START

Bode Miller will not start. He decided too late to join the US Ski Team and is simply not ready. A great move by Bode and the staff to not start him here. He has 5 top 5 finishes here inlcuding 2 wins and a 2nd place. But he has never really enjoyed this race. The hill is brutal. It is often bumpy and dark and really does not have a great rhythm to it. It is also very early. By all accounts, Bode has been great within the team environment. Like the pre-Torino Bode. Helpful, hard working and positive. In short, a good leader and teammate. Great news for all involved!
Maier, we know, has retired. Kalle Palander continues to struggle with his tibia fracture issues and still has pain. One Finnish coach said, "This is not good, really not good." His teammate, Marcus Sandell, one of the best young GS skiers in the world, also will not start. Marcus suffered an awful crash in training and had a kidney removed. I heard from Marcus the other day and he is talking about racing in Alta Badia.
Felix Neureuther is not a GS star but he is a slalom star and a German star. FIS World Cup TV ratings run through Germany. And the Germans stream over the passes into Tirol to see this race. The absence of Felix on the start list could have an impact on attendance and will have an impact on TV ratings.
And Dani Albreacht, still recovering from his crash in Kitzbuhel last season. He will be back, but I hear he will try to start with slalom. Hopefully in Levi next month.

THE FAVORITES:

Aksel Lund Svindal (NOR): He will win. He has trained a lot of days this year. He has great history on this hill. He won here in 2007. He is very versatile and consistently fast. His coach is setting run 2. I am heavily in his camp for the win this weekend.

Didier Cuche (SUI): Totally impressed with his GS the last 3 years. He has made changes in his skiing and his approach to GS. He was 2nd last year.

Benni Raich (AUT): While Benni has been consistent at Soelden (5th, 4th, 4th, 4th). Never better than 4th, not worse than 5th when he finished cleanly. I think that's where he ends up again. I don't think Benni wants to risk on that hill and I think he struggles with certain sections of the hill. Specifically the top of the first pitch to the entry of the main pitch.

Max Blardone (ITA): 2nd place in 2004. Nothing since then. And I don't think he will do much this year at Soelden either.

THE DARK HORSES:

Kjietl Jansrud (NOR): Watch out for this guy. He is historically good on courses set by both course setters. He won the 2nd run in Soelden last year. Now in the top 15 so he has a good start number. He is a big, strong, fearless guy. He will put it on the line. His coach sets run 2 which also helps him.

Carlo Janka (SUI): A lot of GS success recently. He is a very strong, consistent and quiet skier. Historically good on steep hills. Fast on courses set by the 2 setters and was 2nd on the 2nd run here last season.

Philipp Shoerghofer (AUT): Had a great race in Soelden last year. He was one of the best Austrians in GS all season long. Very consistent. He has moved into the top 15 so he will have a decent start number. He could send a wake up call.

Romed Baumann (AUT): Great young skier. Very clean and consistent. Skis within himself. He has done well at Soelden before. As with Schoerghofer, he has moved into the top 15 so he will have a good number. The only down-side with him for this weekend is he seems to warm into the season some years. The Austrian staff are really talking him up recently.

Thomas Fanara (FRA): I love to watch this guy attack a GS hill. He is small and very aggressive. He is like Blardone without the notoriety. He has been injured a lot in his career and that is really what holds him back. But, with Chastan setting run 1, watch for Thomas to attack with confidence and make a big move. In fact, I think all the French guys will take a lot of confidence into run 1 with David doing the setting.

THE AMERICANS:

Ted Ligety: Ted is recovering from a knee injury suffered at the US Alpine Championships DH in Alyeska last season. He missed a large portion of the preparation period. He has skied less than many going into the early race. I think this will hurt him a little in Soelden but not too much. According to World Cup Tech coach, Pete Korfiatis, "Ted is good, he is skiing fast when he wants to." After spending 5 years with Ted, I would say that is an assessment that makes me smile. That usually means Ted is confident. Per Lundstam, of USSA Sport Science says, "Ted is about 2kg heavier than this time last year, but seems as explosive." These are all good things. Ted has good history on this hill. His first big breakthrough was here in 2005, coming from start number 64 to finish 8th. He won the first run here in 2007 and finished 2nd. He was 3rd here last year. He will be in the mix again. He IS the best technical skier on the World Cup in GS.

Tim Jitloff: 20th last year for his first WC points. Much better start position in the mid 20s. Men's Head Tech coach, Rudi Soulard says, "Jit, really good." Which seems short but Rudi keeps it simple, which I like. I see Jit getting the job done and scoring double digit points. Somewhere similar to last season's opener.

Jake Zamansky: The Z-Man! He finally broke through last season and had a very impressive race in Sestriere last season. Jake will need to make a move out of the
40s to move in and get a 2nd run. Soelden has not been kind to Jake over the years. He will need to outperform his history in Soelden and shake the ghosts of past failures on this hill.

Tommy Ford: TFord is entered in his first big race. All the USST coaches are talking him up. He has been fast in training against Ted. He was also fast against the Italian heavy hitters last week in Saas-Fee. Being fast against Ted in training is not always a good measure. Remember what Korfiatis said in the comment above. TFord is a great young skier, awesome competitor and a great kid. I am sure he will do his absolute best. The numbers are against him starting that late in the race (60s?). Soelden rarely allows a qualifer from that far back. The hill tends to break down by that time on Sunday. If anyone can get it done, TFord can! Ted did it in '05.

Warner Nickerson: Warner won the spot in a time trial shootout with Dane Spencer. Warner will also need to battle out of a high 50s start position to get a 2nd run. I don't think Warner has much of a shot on this hill. Maybe somewhere like Beaver Creek, he could. I have had to endure watching a lot of late starters over the years in Soelden and it is rarely pretty. I remember one year watching 5 consecutive skiers crash in the same spot and see them piled up like cord-wood next to the fence. It can be brutal!

THE CANADIANS:

Roy, Bourque, Dixon, Kucera

JP Roy always seems to get something done here. He will start in the mid 20s and have a shot to move up. Frank Bourque is coming back from injury so I have a hard time seeing the comeback starting here. Robbie Dixon did a fantastic job on the World Cup last year and is a tough kid. He could hang in there to get it done. And in Kucera they have a real World Cup GS skier who needs to re-establish himself in the top 30 and then the top 15. Johnny is the reigning DH World Champion and that confidence will help him. I think he is the one guy who makes a big move out of the later starters.

Good luck to everyone! It will be fun!