Soelden Men: "The Good,The Bad and The Ugly."

Since I started this thread with the girls on Saturday night, I will follow it up with the same format for the guys.
First a little summary. From what I saw, I liked the course setting at Soelden. Speed control for the men was pretty good except the usual trap of letting them go a little too soon coming off the pitch. There is always a temptation to straighten out the set thinking you are off the pitch when setting. And, with the long flat stretch to the finish you want the athletes to have speed to carry through the very flat finish line. The big mistake is that the course setter often lets the set go and does not keep it straight enough or does not give enough room. And, as usual, the hill at Soelden showed her teeth causing a lot of mistakes throughout the field. Even the best had problems. The second run was characterized by dark, flat light, bumpy terrain after almost 200 attempts on the hill and some broken through turns with some bally snow. Now on to the GBU.

The Good:
Great job by Cuche, Ligety and Janka. Proving that they are prepared to make an assault on the GS globe and GS gold in Vancouver. And that they can tough it out in not great conditions to have strong runs.
Ligety's success validates training this summer with less time on snow. It also gives him confidence in his knee and rehabilitation program.
JP ROY! Great job following through on first run success and getting into the top 10.
Robbie Dixon: Great job from that start number and maybe a stepping stone to more?
Both JP and Robbie's success today validate the Canadian preparation period.
Leif Kristian Haugen (NOR): Fantastic performance coming out of Denver University and the NorAm circuit. Awesome!
Kjietl Jansrud (NOR); Once again the winner of run 2 in Soelden. I am sure there is more to come.
Ondrej Bank (CZE): Welcome back to the 2nd run after missing almost 2 whole years with a severe knee injury. VERY IMPRESSIVE!
Tommy Ford (USA): The 20 year old from Bend, Oregon in his first World Cup getting to 32 falling just short of qualification. Qualifying in Soelden from over bib 50 is statistically the toughest in the world. Good job, and make that leap in Beaver Creek!
Switzerland: 1st, 3rd and when you can qualify Zurbriggen in GS, you are doing well.
In general I thought it was a pretty strong showing for the field. With a month to prepare for the next GS in Beaver Creek, the competition will be much deeper.


THE BAD:
Like the ladies yesterday, 3.25 margin of qualification is way too high. Soelden averages 2.56 over the last 8 years.
Not qualifying:Christoph Gruber (AUT), Markus Larsson (SWE), Tim Jitloff (USA). You guys should qualify every time. Even with mistakes, one pole, whatever.
Austria: 5th, 13, 14,18, 25, 27. The long-term decline of their GS skiing is starting to show. Long-time quality GS guys looked horrible.
Thomas Fanara (FRA): You are known for attack, you did not.
Stefan Goergl: See Austria above.

THE UGLY:
Almost the entire field for not picking up the point at which you could let things go coming off the pitch. Almost every guy in the race did not control the ski and keep elevation long enough coming onto the flat. Go download the splits and you will be amazed by the amount of time being given away on the bottom.

To every guy in the field who blew the little turn just above the finish. 6 turns above to be exact. It is there every year. Sometimes a delay, sometimes not but there is always a little ripple cross-rut there from the traverse from the ice box after they start building the finish area and a lot of you chiseled away time there. Pay attention.

Manny Moelgg (ITA): How could you do that after Manu did the same thing the day before? The St. Vigilio/Kronplatz fans are not happy this weekend!

Aksel Lund Svindal (NOR): I am speculating here and no one has reported anything yet. But watch the video. Aksel goes inside and down with his hip skiing right to left and then goes to switch to his left foot and skis out. He immediately lifts his left leg off the snow and does not put it down. Then on stopping, he reaches for his left knee. I am not saying I know anything but that is a classic move to rupture something in your knee. Not always ACL but meniscus, etc. Again, I do not know but watch the tape. Aksel knows if something is wrong. And that would be ugly if what I thought I saw actually happened. I sure hope not!

So that wraps it up for Soelden! We saw a lot, and it will all change by the time they get to Aspen and Beaver Creek. Next is Men and Women SL in Levi, Finland. I will start blogging on that one as soon as it makes sense.
Alpine Race Consulting just finished 2 speaking engagements this weekend for PSIA-NW. Thanks for your hospitality and reception. It was a lot of fun. See you all on the hill this winter!

Soelden: Men's preview. Aksel, Ted, Didier and then?

Soelden is always an interesting race. This is my first time not there in 8 years! It feels strange, empty. But exciting nonetheless. As a coach, you have had a full preparation period. You've done your coaching. You picked the best GS skis. You have watched hours of video. You left no stone unturned in your quest for greatness. Now, here it is. You find out how good your program has been. Will there be validation of your program? Or is there a lot more work to do before Beaver Creek?
3 days away and all the teams stream into Soelden. A tiny resort town at the end of a steep Tirolean valley. The Oetztal winds south from the autobahn toward Italy and ends here. By Friday night there will be thousands of people partying in the street and flowing in one large mass from bar to bar. Drive through town on Friday or Saturday night? It can't be done. All of these revelers welcoming the new race season will end up at the glacier on Sunday morning to see the ski stars. No doubt disappointed that Miller, Albrecht and Palander will not race. They are simply not ready or recovered enough to race so soon. Marcus Sandell will not be there either. And of course, 2005 Champion and ultimate Austrian ski star Hermann Maier announced his retirement this month. If you look it up, you'll see that 4 of the last 5 winners (Miller twice) at Soelden will not race.

MILLER, MAIER, PALANDER, SANDELL, ALBRECHT, NEUREUTHER WILL NOT START

Bode Miller will not start. He decided too late to join the US Ski Team and is simply not ready. A great move by Bode and the staff to not start him here. He has 5 top 5 finishes here inlcuding 2 wins and a 2nd place. But he has never really enjoyed this race. The hill is brutal. It is often bumpy and dark and really does not have a great rhythm to it. It is also very early. By all accounts, Bode has been great within the team environment. Like the pre-Torino Bode. Helpful, hard working and positive. In short, a good leader and teammate. Great news for all involved!
Maier, we know, has retired. Kalle Palander continues to struggle with his tibia fracture issues and still has pain. One Finnish coach said, "This is not good, really not good." His teammate, Marcus Sandell, one of the best young GS skiers in the world, also will not start. Marcus suffered an awful crash in training and had a kidney removed. I heard from Marcus the other day and he is talking about racing in Alta Badia.
Felix Neureuther is not a GS star but he is a slalom star and a German star. FIS World Cup TV ratings run through Germany. And the Germans stream over the passes into Tirol to see this race. The absence of Felix on the start list could have an impact on attendance and will have an impact on TV ratings.
And Dani Albreacht, still recovering from his crash in Kitzbuhel last season. He will be back, but I hear he will try to start with slalom. Hopefully in Levi next month.

THE FAVORITES:

Aksel Lund Svindal (NOR): He will win. He has trained a lot of days this year. He has great history on this hill. He won here in 2007. He is very versatile and consistently fast. His coach is setting run 2. I am heavily in his camp for the win this weekend.

Didier Cuche (SUI): Totally impressed with his GS the last 3 years. He has made changes in his skiing and his approach to GS. He was 2nd last year.

Benni Raich (AUT): While Benni has been consistent at Soelden (5th, 4th, 4th, 4th). Never better than 4th, not worse than 5th when he finished cleanly. I think that's where he ends up again. I don't think Benni wants to risk on that hill and I think he struggles with certain sections of the hill. Specifically the top of the first pitch to the entry of the main pitch.

Max Blardone (ITA): 2nd place in 2004. Nothing since then. And I don't think he will do much this year at Soelden either.

THE DARK HORSES:

Kjietl Jansrud (NOR): Watch out for this guy. He is historically good on courses set by both course setters. He won the 2nd run in Soelden last year. Now in the top 15 so he has a good start number. He is a big, strong, fearless guy. He will put it on the line. His coach sets run 2 which also helps him.

Carlo Janka (SUI): A lot of GS success recently. He is a very strong, consistent and quiet skier. Historically good on steep hills. Fast on courses set by the 2 setters and was 2nd on the 2nd run here last season.

Philipp Shoerghofer (AUT): Had a great race in Soelden last year. He was one of the best Austrians in GS all season long. Very consistent. He has moved into the top 15 so he will have a decent start number. He could send a wake up call.

Romed Baumann (AUT): Great young skier. Very clean and consistent. Skis within himself. He has done well at Soelden before. As with Schoerghofer, he has moved into the top 15 so he will have a good number. The only down-side with him for this weekend is he seems to warm into the season some years. The Austrian staff are really talking him up recently.

Thomas Fanara (FRA): I love to watch this guy attack a GS hill. He is small and very aggressive. He is like Blardone without the notoriety. He has been injured a lot in his career and that is really what holds him back. But, with Chastan setting run 1, watch for Thomas to attack with confidence and make a big move. In fact, I think all the French guys will take a lot of confidence into run 1 with David doing the setting.

THE AMERICANS:

Ted Ligety: Ted is recovering from a knee injury suffered at the US Alpine Championships DH in Alyeska last season. He missed a large portion of the preparation period. He has skied less than many going into the early race. I think this will hurt him a little in Soelden but not too much. According to World Cup Tech coach, Pete Korfiatis, "Ted is good, he is skiing fast when he wants to." After spending 5 years with Ted, I would say that is an assessment that makes me smile. That usually means Ted is confident. Per Lundstam, of USSA Sport Science says, "Ted is about 2kg heavier than this time last year, but seems as explosive." These are all good things. Ted has good history on this hill. His first big breakthrough was here in 2005, coming from start number 64 to finish 8th. He won the first run here in 2007 and finished 2nd. He was 3rd here last year. He will be in the mix again. He IS the best technical skier on the World Cup in GS.

Tim Jitloff: 20th last year for his first WC points. Much better start position in the mid 20s. Men's Head Tech coach, Rudi Soulard says, "Jit, really good." Which seems short but Rudi keeps it simple, which I like. I see Jit getting the job done and scoring double digit points. Somewhere similar to last season's opener.

Jake Zamansky: The Z-Man! He finally broke through last season and had a very impressive race in Sestriere last season. Jake will need to make a move out of the
40s to move in and get a 2nd run. Soelden has not been kind to Jake over the years. He will need to outperform his history in Soelden and shake the ghosts of past failures on this hill.

Tommy Ford: TFord is entered in his first big race. All the USST coaches are talking him up. He has been fast in training against Ted. He was also fast against the Italian heavy hitters last week in Saas-Fee. Being fast against Ted in training is not always a good measure. Remember what Korfiatis said in the comment above. TFord is a great young skier, awesome competitor and a great kid. I am sure he will do his absolute best. The numbers are against him starting that late in the race (60s?). Soelden rarely allows a qualifer from that far back. The hill tends to break down by that time on Sunday. If anyone can get it done, TFord can! Ted did it in '05.

Warner Nickerson: Warner won the spot in a time trial shootout with Dane Spencer. Warner will also need to battle out of a high 50s start position to get a 2nd run. I don't think Warner has much of a shot on this hill. Maybe somewhere like Beaver Creek, he could. I have had to endure watching a lot of late starters over the years in Soelden and it is rarely pretty. I remember one year watching 5 consecutive skiers crash in the same spot and see them piled up like cord-wood next to the fence. It can be brutal!

THE CANADIANS:

Roy, Bourque, Dixon, Kucera

JP Roy always seems to get something done here. He will start in the mid 20s and have a shot to move up. Frank Bourque is coming back from injury so I have a hard time seeing the comeback starting here. Robbie Dixon did a fantastic job on the World Cup last year and is a tough kid. He could hang in there to get it done. And in Kucera they have a real World Cup GS skier who needs to re-establish himself in the top 30 and then the top 15. Johnny is the reigning DH World Champion and that confidence will help him. I think he is the one guy who makes a big move out of the later starters.

Good luck to everyone! It will be fun!