Levi Slalom: Men's Preview

Who is going to win this race? The one who skis the fastest...Really? Is that it? I think in this one it really is. There have been only 2 men's World Cup slalom races on the Levi Black and there were 6 different guys on the podium. (Grange, Miller, Matt in 2008) and (Raich, Larsson and Rocca in 2006). Here we are in 2009 and no repeats on the podium to draw from. And not really any repeats in the top 10 that we can draw anything from. Look at last year's podium. Grange is a great skier who is excellent on moderate hills. Miller is possibly the fastest, while most inconsistent top slalom skier in history. And Matt is among the most consistent in history. In the 2006 podium you have a winner who is super consistent and was on his way to a slalom globe that year, Larsson who rivals Miller for lack of consistency and Rocca who is the streakiest slalom skier ever. So, if I put all of those facts together with a qualification margin of 1.40 last season and 1.71 in 2006, I see flat-out, wide-open racing. The course setting is likely to be fairly open for the hill to ski well so we should see more of the same. I expect a high-risk, leave-it-all-on-the- hill approach even in run 1 because if you play it too safe, you will find yourself too far behind to make up the places. Or maybe watching it from the finish area?
With the courses expected to be open, I see very little tactical adjustment or planning. Maybe a tiny re-direct of the skis at the top of the pitch to be ahead of the tempo for 3 or 4 turns and then a full-gas approach the rest of the way.
All of this makes it incredibly hard to pick, but a lot of fun to watch. It also leaves some favorites for their style of skiing. I will hit on some of that here and have a look at the favorites, and their positives and negatives.

TOP DAWGS:

JB Grange(FRA): It all seems to be leaning in his direction. The hill is mellow, the courses will likely allow a lot of carving, he's the slalom king and defending champ. Along with a top 7 number and watch out. JB is definitely the favorite. His one real weakness, the lack of a classic pole-plant move, will not likely be deadly on this kind of hill.
Manfred Pranger(AUT): Always a threat and a guy who gets extremely ramped up. I actually think that will hurt him on this hill. He might get overamped and not even make it through the rollers on the top flat. Plus, Manny is much better on tighter courses with less swing. I expect the opposite type of sets in Levi.
Julien Lizeroux(FRA): I like his aggressive style and positive attitude. But I think he is similar to Pranger in many ways on the hill and I think he might push for a little too much and be a DNF or have a major error.
Ivica Kostelic(CRO): A big, strong guy and always a threat. His best is 5th in Levi and I think it's because he is also a little better at the straighter, tighter stuff. Just not versatile enough. He also is very energy-dependant. Sometimes he looks like he is just not into it. He also carries nagging injuries into the early season after their overly aggressive preparation period training volume.
Reinfried Herbst(AUT): I think he is built for this type of hill. A lot of success in similar venues over the years. I am pretty high on him in Levi and with Hoeflehner setting run 2, I think he can charge onto the podium on run 2.
Manni Moelgg(ITA): I am a big Manni Moelgg fan. He hails from St. Vigilio, a beautiful place nestled deep in the Dolomites near the Kronplatz and Alta Badia. A great place you should visit at any time of year. I do think he can be ok in Levi but he tends to excel on steeper, tighter, tougher stuff.
Mattias Hargin (SWE): This hill is tailor made for him! You heard it here! A free-swinging Swede who has found himself in the top 7. Similar approach to Byggmark. It's like a heavyweight fight that opens with a flurry of punches when this guy hits the hill. Unbeleiveable energy and speed. With a fairly gentle hill, watch out for a big breakthrough.
Mario Matt(AUT): One of the most consistent slalom skiers of this generation, along with Benni Raich. He will likely do well but I am not sure he will risk enough to win.
Marcel Hirscher(AUT): Super fast young guy. Born in 1989 and just making his mark on the FIS World Cup. He can be in there for sure.
Benni Raich(AUT): See Matt above. I think he lacks the risk for this hill even though he did win here in 2006. If there is going to be a winner by default or attrition, it will be Benni.
Mike Janyk(CAN): Here it is Canadian brothers, Mike Janyk will compete for a podium in Levi. The hill sets up perfectly for him and if the courses have room and swing, that is right in his wheelhouse. Good luck Mikey, let it rip!

AMERICANS:
I have avoided being a homer in the blog so far this season. But I am hearing so much good stuff out of the American training sessions, I just have to chuck fairness out the window. The news has been positive, I believe they are talented and skilled.

The USA is starting Miller, Ligety, Jitloff, Cochran and Nolan Kasper.
Here it is in a nutshell. The word from the American training in Taernaby is that Ted has found his speed and is ready to go. Ligety will fight off a mediocre first run start position to win this race. Ted has never won a FIS World Cup slalom. He has 6 podiums, the last coming in Wengen on Jaunary 12, 2008. He went all last season without a World Cup podium. That streak will end, the winless streak will end. Ligety will win on Levi Black.
Bode will do very well too. He is likely not ready yet but this is a great hill for him and will compete well for a top 10 finish.
Jitloff and Jimmy C will fight off some tough start numbers to qualify and then turn in excellent 2nd runs to make the top 20. And while I like Nolan as a skier, I think he has too much to overcome in start number and nerves to get it done here. But not to worry, he is a good skier and the tougher hills might favor him more. I think we come out something like: 1, 8, 13, 18.

CANADIANS:
As far as the neighbors to the north, I think they have a lot to cheer for. Janyk is ready to make a move, for sure. When you look at he rest of them, you have occasional qualifers in Trevor White, Brad Spence, Ryan Semple and Julien Cousineau. They all ski well on this type of hill. They just need to get a little lucky with course conditions and risk/reward but they can get it done.

Other dark horses to watch? Giuliani Razzoli(ITA), maybe Mark Gini(SUI) to come from outside the top 30. The same with Christian DeVille(ITA). Sandro Viletta(SUI) also brings a lot of heat to every run. One last one, this was the first big breakthrough for Jens Byggmark in 2006. Watch for him again, this time on Volkl.

Whew, that was a whirlwind. It just got me so fired up for this race!

Levi confirmed yesterday. WC Slalom season starts.

Here we are again! 10 days from the ladies' free ski on the race hill in Levi, Finland. Levi is a very interesting place. Getting there is a struggle, it is only light out this time of year for about 2-3 hours. Please notice I said light out, not sun. The sun sort of sweeps over the hilltops above the arctic circle in early November for about an hour and a half. You see this dull, yellowish orb straining to light the earth and warm all the creatures below. It does so feebly and ineffectively. Then, as quickly as it scraped the tree tops, it's gone and it's back to the darkness. Leaving teams to find very creative ways to keep busy. Train a little on the hill, eat some lunch, take a nap, do some conditioning. And then, well then what? Watch some video....ok then what? Exactly why there are more "restaurants" in Levi than any other establishment. Pubs, bars, discos, whatever you want to call them. They are everywhere, and they are packed! Try the Wanha Hullu Poro for starters, and go from there.

There are all sorts of ways to get ready for Levi. The one most teams have settled on is to get themselves to Lapland somehow and train a few days. Get used to the lack of sunlight and the funky schedule. The American boys are going to Taernaby, Sweden. The famous hometown of Ingemar and Anja. They will train a few days and then make the drive across the tundra to Levi. On arrival there it is just train, free ski and race.

Yesterday ,Hans Pieren, the Technical Race Director for the FIS, approved the hill in Levi for the races on the 14th and 15th. He said they would start injecting as soon as possible and be done with the injection by Wednesday night if the weather cooperates. If not, they would have to draw out the process another day or two. This is not a problem and still will leave the crews plenty of time to smooth out the surface and get the protection and finish area all done. According to Hans, they will use 2 million liters of water in prepping the hill. That translates to just over 500,000 US Gallons. That hill will be hard. Combine cold weather, no sunshine and 500,000 gallons of water pressure-injected into the hill, you will get some very hard snow. Ice? Yeah, ok, ice. Ski areas don't like that word so we don't use it. The "Levi Black" trail will be shiny. And as it gets slipped off by the ski school and then the track gets slipped by the athletes, it will be slick. The good thing about the injection is that it will provide a measure of difficulty to an otherwise benign hill.

"Levi Black": Last year, the qualifying margin for the women was 2.16 seconds, for the men it was 1.40 seconds. That is tremendously close racing on both sides. It creates an atmosphere of intensity and risk at the start and on the hill. Everyone is searching for an advantage and trying to find the correct measure of risk. It can also make the course setters try to separate the field a little with tighter course setting or tricky combinations. The thing with Levi, is that it is flat and fairly long, so if you set too many gates it gets monotonous. I still fall on the side of keeping it basic; set to the strength of the hill and let the athletes sort it out.

Levi Black starts out with a long, 20-25 second flat section with a few man made rolls in it. The rolls are fairly sharp and can cause problems (Ted crashed on one of them in 2006). But nonetheless, it is an opening highway where the athletes really do not have to think or plan, just go fast. As they approach 20 seconds or so, there is a sharp break over into the main pitch. it is steep for about 4 or 5 turns but causes little trouble. If the snow is very slick, there can be problems here. For instance, if a given ski company is having problems with grip on ice, you will notice it there. After about 5 turns it gradually flattens and eventually bends to the right to run-out toward the finish.

For the girls, you will see some difficulty in dealing with the break over into the main pitch and dealing with ice on a pitch. There it is really about skiing cleanly with good grip and making good solid turns until you can let loose into the flat section to the finish. For the guys it is somewhat the same except there will likely be a choice from each athlete about where to start risking coming off the pitch. Some will try to push the envelope higher on the pitch, often based on any mistakes that have been made above and feeling pressure from knowing that the qualification margin normally is so small in Levi.

With an easy hill, perfectly fair conditions and fair light (artificial) you will likely see a similar story as in the past. Couple that with a hill that is not stressful for the course setters and there is an even better chance you will see that kind of very close race.