Levi Slalom: Men's Preview

Who is going to win this race? The one who skis the fastest...Really? Is that it? I think in this one it really is. There have been only 2 men's World Cup slalom races on the Levi Black and there were 6 different guys on the podium. (Grange, Miller, Matt in 2008) and (Raich, Larsson and Rocca in 2006). Here we are in 2009 and no repeats on the podium to draw from. And not really any repeats in the top 10 that we can draw anything from. Look at last year's podium. Grange is a great skier who is excellent on moderate hills. Miller is possibly the fastest, while most inconsistent top slalom skier in history. And Matt is among the most consistent in history. In the 2006 podium you have a winner who is super consistent and was on his way to a slalom globe that year, Larsson who rivals Miller for lack of consistency and Rocca who is the streakiest slalom skier ever. So, if I put all of those facts together with a qualification margin of 1.40 last season and 1.71 in 2006, I see flat-out, wide-open racing. The course setting is likely to be fairly open for the hill to ski well so we should see more of the same. I expect a high-risk, leave-it-all-on-the- hill approach even in run 1 because if you play it too safe, you will find yourself too far behind to make up the places. Or maybe watching it from the finish area?
With the courses expected to be open, I see very little tactical adjustment or planning. Maybe a tiny re-direct of the skis at the top of the pitch to be ahead of the tempo for 3 or 4 turns and then a full-gas approach the rest of the way.
All of this makes it incredibly hard to pick, but a lot of fun to watch. It also leaves some favorites for their style of skiing. I will hit on some of that here and have a look at the favorites, and their positives and negatives.

TOP DAWGS:

JB Grange(FRA): It all seems to be leaning in his direction. The hill is mellow, the courses will likely allow a lot of carving, he's the slalom king and defending champ. Along with a top 7 number and watch out. JB is definitely the favorite. His one real weakness, the lack of a classic pole-plant move, will not likely be deadly on this kind of hill.
Manfred Pranger(AUT): Always a threat and a guy who gets extremely ramped up. I actually think that will hurt him on this hill. He might get overamped and not even make it through the rollers on the top flat. Plus, Manny is much better on tighter courses with less swing. I expect the opposite type of sets in Levi.
Julien Lizeroux(FRA): I like his aggressive style and positive attitude. But I think he is similar to Pranger in many ways on the hill and I think he might push for a little too much and be a DNF or have a major error.
Ivica Kostelic(CRO): A big, strong guy and always a threat. His best is 5th in Levi and I think it's because he is also a little better at the straighter, tighter stuff. Just not versatile enough. He also is very energy-dependant. Sometimes he looks like he is just not into it. He also carries nagging injuries into the early season after their overly aggressive preparation period training volume.
Reinfried Herbst(AUT): I think he is built for this type of hill. A lot of success in similar venues over the years. I am pretty high on him in Levi and with Hoeflehner setting run 2, I think he can charge onto the podium on run 2.
Manni Moelgg(ITA): I am a big Manni Moelgg fan. He hails from St. Vigilio, a beautiful place nestled deep in the Dolomites near the Kronplatz and Alta Badia. A great place you should visit at any time of year. I do think he can be ok in Levi but he tends to excel on steeper, tighter, tougher stuff.
Mattias Hargin (SWE): This hill is tailor made for him! You heard it here! A free-swinging Swede who has found himself in the top 7. Similar approach to Byggmark. It's like a heavyweight fight that opens with a flurry of punches when this guy hits the hill. Unbeleiveable energy and speed. With a fairly gentle hill, watch out for a big breakthrough.
Mario Matt(AUT): One of the most consistent slalom skiers of this generation, along with Benni Raich. He will likely do well but I am not sure he will risk enough to win.
Marcel Hirscher(AUT): Super fast young guy. Born in 1989 and just making his mark on the FIS World Cup. He can be in there for sure.
Benni Raich(AUT): See Matt above. I think he lacks the risk for this hill even though he did win here in 2006. If there is going to be a winner by default or attrition, it will be Benni.
Mike Janyk(CAN): Here it is Canadian brothers, Mike Janyk will compete for a podium in Levi. The hill sets up perfectly for him and if the courses have room and swing, that is right in his wheelhouse. Good luck Mikey, let it rip!

AMERICANS:
I have avoided being a homer in the blog so far this season. But I am hearing so much good stuff out of the American training sessions, I just have to chuck fairness out the window. The news has been positive, I believe they are talented and skilled.

The USA is starting Miller, Ligety, Jitloff, Cochran and Nolan Kasper.
Here it is in a nutshell. The word from the American training in Taernaby is that Ted has found his speed and is ready to go. Ligety will fight off a mediocre first run start position to win this race. Ted has never won a FIS World Cup slalom. He has 6 podiums, the last coming in Wengen on Jaunary 12, 2008. He went all last season without a World Cup podium. That streak will end, the winless streak will end. Ligety will win on Levi Black.
Bode will do very well too. He is likely not ready yet but this is a great hill for him and will compete well for a top 10 finish.
Jitloff and Jimmy C will fight off some tough start numbers to qualify and then turn in excellent 2nd runs to make the top 20. And while I like Nolan as a skier, I think he has too much to overcome in start number and nerves to get it done here. But not to worry, he is a good skier and the tougher hills might favor him more. I think we come out something like: 1, 8, 13, 18.

CANADIANS:
As far as the neighbors to the north, I think they have a lot to cheer for. Janyk is ready to make a move, for sure. When you look at he rest of them, you have occasional qualifers in Trevor White, Brad Spence, Ryan Semple and Julien Cousineau. They all ski well on this type of hill. They just need to get a little lucky with course conditions and risk/reward but they can get it done.

Other dark horses to watch? Giuliani Razzoli(ITA), maybe Mark Gini(SUI) to come from outside the top 30. The same with Christian DeVille(ITA). Sandro Viletta(SUI) also brings a lot of heat to every run. One last one, this was the first big breakthrough for Jens Byggmark in 2006. Watch for him again, this time on Volkl.

Whew, that was a whirlwind. It just got me so fired up for this race!

Levi: The Course Setters

As I wrote recently about the Levi course, it is not difficult. And really no stress to set on regarding making minimum turns. It is only 180 meters of vertical and has a long flat at the top. Only needing 54 (-3) 51 turns to make minimum and a lot of opportunity to put in flushes on the flats, there is really no problem making "the number." In the past, setters have been up around 60 turns without really setting tight. When I was there, and the rule was 55 turns without tolerance, the sets were 61 turns on run 1 and 60 on run 2. Both were over 11.5 meters the whole way with the combinations set at 5.5 to 6 meters.In fact, the 60 turn course was closer to 12 meters the whole way. Last year, the women's courses were 59 turns and 61 turns respectively and then men were 63 and 62 turns respectively. With all that said, it looks like we will see courses in the 11 to 12 meter range for both genders.
THE COURSE SETTERS
WOMEN:
Run 1: Christian Schwaiger (GER).
Schwaiger is the German women's technical coach after spending years as the men's Great Britain tech coach. Taking care of the Baxter boys, et al. As a course setter, I have only seen him set in person in training venues, but he tends not to get too caught up in novelties and funky combos. As well, he has some good slalom skiers in Maria and Susanne Riesch and Fanny Chmelar. All 3 are very tall, big girls. I would assume he is going to set to their strength, which would be the slightly bigger turn. It is really good news that Christian is setting in Levi for all 3 of these girls as they all have good histories on the hill. It gives them an excellent opportunity to be competitive on run 1 and build confidence. The last SL Christian set was in Aspen last season and the run was won by Nicole Hosp (AUT). That will not happen again as she tore her ACL in Soelden and is gone for the season. She is making noise about returning in Garmisch at the FIS World Cup Finals but that statement does not make sense in so many ways.
Run 2: Phillippe Willman (FRA)
While I know very little about Phillippe's course setting skills, I have spoken to a few women's FIS World Cup coaches about him and they all feel confident he will set a nice course. His history by the numbers is that he hits the minimum turns often. However, even if he sets 13 meters the whole way in Levi, he will still likely be over the absolute minimum of 51. Again, this is all good news for the bigger girls. Higher speed, less foot speed is necessary, hit the gates harder at higher speed so "size does matter." Both setters and the hill lean toward defending Levi champ Lindsey Vonn, Maria Riesch and the other Garmisch giants and Sandrine Aubert (FRA). The last time Phillippe set was in Ofterschwang, Germany. The race was won by Aubert, his own athlete. The run was won by Alexandra Daum (AUT). Hailey Duke of Boise, Idaho was 3rd and Marie-Michelle Gagnon was also in the mix, giving the Canadian camp some hope going into Levi.
MEN:
Run 1: Manfred Widauer (GER)
Manfred is new on the scene as a course setter. He was the German assistant tech coach last year and is now the Head Coach of the German Tech group. Felix Neureuther, Stefan Kogler and maybe even Dominik Stehle look to take advantage of this fact. Kogler and Stehle both got 2nd runs last season at Levi, and given the fact that they are really the only people who have skied Manfred's sets, they have an advantage. The Germans did train with the Americans in Coronet Peak, NZ this past summer so Ted, Jimmy Cochran and company have likely run some of his stuff too. According to the USA coaches there was nothing out of the ordinary or "freaky" going on with his setting. In my own experience, the first World Cup slalom set I made was very basic. With all the distraction of people measuring and Hans and Guenther telling you what to do, you tend to default to basics on your first World Cup set. Also, with little concern with making minimum turns, I expect something solid and basic with plenty of distance. Close racing for sure.
Run 2: Christian Hoeflehner (AUT)
Now this is a guy I know a lot about. He has been with the World Cup SL guys in Austria off and on since 2002. We came into the World Cup together and spent a lot of time together those first years when team USA and the Austrians were official training partners. Our friendship did not dissolve when the teams ended the agreement nor when he was promoted to Head Slalom coach. He is responsible for the dominance of the Austrian slalom machine. Herbst, Hirscher, Pranger, Raich, Matt. Watch out for a strong run 2 push out of these guys. Historically, "Hoefi" has liked to set out past 11 meters. The turn count of 63 last year sounds like 11 meters to me. Even though Herbst and Pranger are better at tighter courses, this hill just does not run well at 10 meters and Hoefi is aware of the aesthetics of World Cup racing. It has to play well on TV. He wants the product to look good and the boys to look good on television back in Austria. Last year, Grange won the run Hoefi set, Ligety was 2nd and Bode was 3rd, just .01 behind Ted. JB won the race. Grange also won a Super-Combi slalom run set by Hoeflehner. Huh...
As an aside, I doubt much if Bode is ready for this race and there is a persistent but yet unconfirmed rumor that his knee is bothersome and he will not start in Levi.