Men in Levi, What was that?

Every once in a while you get one of those races that just does not turn out well. Maybe it's the snow, the course set, poor light and shadows, bad tactics by the athletes, bad advice from coaches? All or any of those things can happen. Sometimes it just doesn't look great as a product on TV and maybe the smartest guys made the podium today and not the purely fastest guys?
First, I have to address course setting. And I was not standing there on the hill so I do not know for sure, but the turn totals looked high and the second run was a little out of the range for this hill to run well. Christian Hoeflehner(AUT) set and his guy won so it is all ok there. But he lost 2 guys of his own in a section that took out a bunch of guys. Maybe that was the plan? The hill deemed too easy for the men so he set some tricky rhythm changes? I don't know the plan but the Austrians usually have one. But in my mind, that hill runs best in the range from 57 to 61 turns, not 65. You can set it turny and with some room to carve and you get very close, fast and fun racing. Instead, it turned into a war of attrition. To me it looked too fast entering the pitch and for a turn or two after the break and then turned them a bit too much, too late on the pitch with not enough distance to recover if necessary. Lizeroux, Grange, Ligety, Cousineau, Myhrer and many more had major problems in the same section. They were a little late with the pressure there, like Hirscher and Matt, then trapped in the very aggressive snow in the already late groove, and were done.
But enough of that. When you get the information or see it on TV at the start, change your tactics. The run 1 leaders all get to see plenty of guys make mistakes. Get on the radio and call your coach in the area, or listen to what he is already saying, or just change what you want to do based on what you are seeing.
Herbst just skied within himself, used his lead over the people who had gone before. He put himself in the lead and let the others try to catch him. Kostelic did the same thing. Very smart, and then executed well, and finished 1-2.

I want to write about Mattias Hargin(SWE). He has only one gear, all out. And he paid a little in the section in question too. It will be interesting to see if he learns over time when he needs to give away a little line and make some good turns to get through a tricky section. Usually that takes more experience in the top 7 to establish that kind of confidence. The confidence that your speed is high enough to win as it is. And then usually it takes that confidence to recognize the issue, but then also the confidence to actually do it in the heat of a slalom run. Tough stuff. He still turned in a great performance and should be very happy with the outcome.
Some other things I saw.
Jimmy Cochran(USA)- I was pretty happy to see him ski as well as he did. I think he skied technically better than I have even seen him recently. I hope he can fix those consistency issues a little further to make his move into the upper level once and for all.
Axel Baeck(SWE)- What can you say about him? The Swedes just seem to keep pushing new slalom guys into the show. He is the newest one and moved from 48 to 15! Good stuff.
Marc Gini(SUI)- A very strong performance from him. He started in the late 20s and finished in 10th. That type of hill is good for him, almost every time.
Lars Myhre(NOR)- He was great today. Sometimes he just has these moments of brilliance but rarely backs it up with another run or race. It will be very interesting to see if he can back it up next time.
I want to go on record to say that I jinxed the American boys. I rarely predict odd-ball wins like that. If a guy does not start in the top 7, I will rarely pick him to win. I just had one of those really good feelings about all the boys but it just didn't work out. I have done this before and should have learned my lesson. Ask Robi Kristan who tuned Bode's skis for a long time. We were in Adelboden in 2003 and riding up the tbar. I looked at him and told him "I have a good feeling about today!" He said, "Really? Awesome." We started 8 guys that day. Daron finished 22nd. Schlopy fell on run 2, 2 guys did not qualify, and 4 fell on the first run. So I should know better about my "good feelings."

Levi Slalom: Men's Preview

Who is going to win this race? The one who skis the fastest...Really? Is that it? I think in this one it really is. There have been only 2 men's World Cup slalom races on the Levi Black and there were 6 different guys on the podium. (Grange, Miller, Matt in 2008) and (Raich, Larsson and Rocca in 2006). Here we are in 2009 and no repeats on the podium to draw from. And not really any repeats in the top 10 that we can draw anything from. Look at last year's podium. Grange is a great skier who is excellent on moderate hills. Miller is possibly the fastest, while most inconsistent top slalom skier in history. And Matt is among the most consistent in history. In the 2006 podium you have a winner who is super consistent and was on his way to a slalom globe that year, Larsson who rivals Miller for lack of consistency and Rocca who is the streakiest slalom skier ever. So, if I put all of those facts together with a qualification margin of 1.40 last season and 1.71 in 2006, I see flat-out, wide-open racing. The course setting is likely to be fairly open for the hill to ski well so we should see more of the same. I expect a high-risk, leave-it-all-on-the- hill approach even in run 1 because if you play it too safe, you will find yourself too far behind to make up the places. Or maybe watching it from the finish area?
With the courses expected to be open, I see very little tactical adjustment or planning. Maybe a tiny re-direct of the skis at the top of the pitch to be ahead of the tempo for 3 or 4 turns and then a full-gas approach the rest of the way.
All of this makes it incredibly hard to pick, but a lot of fun to watch. It also leaves some favorites for their style of skiing. I will hit on some of that here and have a look at the favorites, and their positives and negatives.

TOP DAWGS:

JB Grange(FRA): It all seems to be leaning in his direction. The hill is mellow, the courses will likely allow a lot of carving, he's the slalom king and defending champ. Along with a top 7 number and watch out. JB is definitely the favorite. His one real weakness, the lack of a classic pole-plant move, will not likely be deadly on this kind of hill.
Manfred Pranger(AUT): Always a threat and a guy who gets extremely ramped up. I actually think that will hurt him on this hill. He might get overamped and not even make it through the rollers on the top flat. Plus, Manny is much better on tighter courses with less swing. I expect the opposite type of sets in Levi.
Julien Lizeroux(FRA): I like his aggressive style and positive attitude. But I think he is similar to Pranger in many ways on the hill and I think he might push for a little too much and be a DNF or have a major error.
Ivica Kostelic(CRO): A big, strong guy and always a threat. His best is 5th in Levi and I think it's because he is also a little better at the straighter, tighter stuff. Just not versatile enough. He also is very energy-dependant. Sometimes he looks like he is just not into it. He also carries nagging injuries into the early season after their overly aggressive preparation period training volume.
Reinfried Herbst(AUT): I think he is built for this type of hill. A lot of success in similar venues over the years. I am pretty high on him in Levi and with Hoeflehner setting run 2, I think he can charge onto the podium on run 2.
Manni Moelgg(ITA): I am a big Manni Moelgg fan. He hails from St. Vigilio, a beautiful place nestled deep in the Dolomites near the Kronplatz and Alta Badia. A great place you should visit at any time of year. I do think he can be ok in Levi but he tends to excel on steeper, tighter, tougher stuff.
Mattias Hargin (SWE): This hill is tailor made for him! You heard it here! A free-swinging Swede who has found himself in the top 7. Similar approach to Byggmark. It's like a heavyweight fight that opens with a flurry of punches when this guy hits the hill. Unbeleiveable energy and speed. With a fairly gentle hill, watch out for a big breakthrough.
Mario Matt(AUT): One of the most consistent slalom skiers of this generation, along with Benni Raich. He will likely do well but I am not sure he will risk enough to win.
Marcel Hirscher(AUT): Super fast young guy. Born in 1989 and just making his mark on the FIS World Cup. He can be in there for sure.
Benni Raich(AUT): See Matt above. I think he lacks the risk for this hill even though he did win here in 2006. If there is going to be a winner by default or attrition, it will be Benni.
Mike Janyk(CAN): Here it is Canadian brothers, Mike Janyk will compete for a podium in Levi. The hill sets up perfectly for him and if the courses have room and swing, that is right in his wheelhouse. Good luck Mikey, let it rip!

AMERICANS:
I have avoided being a homer in the blog so far this season. But I am hearing so much good stuff out of the American training sessions, I just have to chuck fairness out the window. The news has been positive, I believe they are talented and skilled.

The USA is starting Miller, Ligety, Jitloff, Cochran and Nolan Kasper.
Here it is in a nutshell. The word from the American training in Taernaby is that Ted has found his speed and is ready to go. Ligety will fight off a mediocre first run start position to win this race. Ted has never won a FIS World Cup slalom. He has 6 podiums, the last coming in Wengen on Jaunary 12, 2008. He went all last season without a World Cup podium. That streak will end, the winless streak will end. Ligety will win on Levi Black.
Bode will do very well too. He is likely not ready yet but this is a great hill for him and will compete well for a top 10 finish.
Jitloff and Jimmy C will fight off some tough start numbers to qualify and then turn in excellent 2nd runs to make the top 20. And while I like Nolan as a skier, I think he has too much to overcome in start number and nerves to get it done here. But not to worry, he is a good skier and the tougher hills might favor him more. I think we come out something like: 1, 8, 13, 18.

CANADIANS:
As far as the neighbors to the north, I think they have a lot to cheer for. Janyk is ready to make a move, for sure. When you look at he rest of them, you have occasional qualifers in Trevor White, Brad Spence, Ryan Semple and Julien Cousineau. They all ski well on this type of hill. They just need to get a little lucky with course conditions and risk/reward but they can get it done.

Other dark horses to watch? Giuliani Razzoli(ITA), maybe Mark Gini(SUI) to come from outside the top 30. The same with Christian DeVille(ITA). Sandro Viletta(SUI) also brings a lot of heat to every run. One last one, this was the first big breakthrough for Jens Byggmark in 2006. Watch for him again, this time on Volkl.

Whew, that was a whirlwind. It just got me so fired up for this race!