The Ladies go south to Zagreb

Zagreb for the girls on the 3rd and the guys on the 6th. Then the women follow that up with speed on in Haus, Austria and the guys hoof it all the way across the continent to Adelboden, SUI for the classic GS on the Chuenisbaergli, which can have different spellings than that one. Actually, it is spelled differently on different signs in town. But that is not really the subject of this blog, it should be Zagreb, and focused on the ladies’ race at that. It has been a tough season to figure out so far in slalom. We have had 4 women’s world cup slalom races and 4 different winners: Riesch, Zahrobska, Aubert and Schild.
So when I start to think about Zagreb, and look at who has won here, I have to start thinking Riesch right away. I would like to think Vonn, but that won’t happen with an injured hand. Slalom is too tough on the hand. Pole plants blocking gates, it just seems like it would be bothersome. Regardless, Zagreb is a fairly mellow hill. It rolls a bit and has some steeper pitches which are pretty short. In the past, visibility and snow conditions have played a part, at least in the men’s races. And if you put together the fact that you stay in a downtown, urban environment and get police escorts to the hill and public draw and the put 38,000 rabid Croatian fans on the hill, it can be difficult. Especially for the women, not because they are women, but because they generally do not draw that kind of crowd. I was glad to see they drew a nice crowd in Lienz last week. But I am sure the crowd in Zagreb will be much bigger, and much more enthusiastic. And they want to help Ana Jelusic and Nika Fleiss up the standings as much as possible. They are nationalistic, to say the least. When Janica was still racing, there were stories of fans pummeling the first run leader with snow and ice while she rode the chair up for her second run start. Protected only by her goggles and slalom helmet.
As I digressed, I realized I needed to go further on the different results this year and in previous years in Zagreb. There have been 3 different winners the last 3 seasons here. But 2 have won slaloms this season (Riesch and Schild). The other winner was Poutiainen in 2008. Add on to that piece of information, Christian Schwaiger, the coach of the German women, has already set a 1st run this season in Levi, and Maria won the run, and the race. So when you line up a winner on this season, with a previous winner on this hill and winning on a course set by the first run setter, who HAPPENS to be her coach…well I think I lean that way. Maria will likely win this race. All things point to her. But I think Marlies Schild skied the best last week and is coming back from injury so she should be improving her racing every week. And then who? I go with Aubert. And watch for all the French girls who seem to be on a roll!
So, my podium looks like: Maria Riesch, Marlies Schild, Sandrine Aubert.
CANADIANS:
Anna Goodman has had a great season so far and I think she will bounce back from her first run DNF last week in Lienz. She starts 20 and a few more results and she could be in the draw! I thought that Brigitte Acton was solid and needs to put a few races together to really build some confidence. With the other starters not really showing much so far this season, I am reluctant to say anything. I think Marie-Michele Gagnon is an excellent skier but hasn’t really made her mark on the World Cup yet and I think she is a better GS threat than in Slalom.

AMERICANS:
Lindsey starts 3, which is great. But with her injury I just cannot see her competing for a podium. I will be the first one to cheer tomorrow morning when I check results, but I just don’t see it right now. Hailey Duke is starting 35 and I keep waiting for something a little more out of her. It seems she has a bit of the Jitloff bug. “Now, I’ve made it…” after a good year last year and a World Championship appearance, it has sort of dropped off. There have been some injuries but you have to wonder about some complacency. I am not ripping on her or Jitloff personally. It is a very real psychological phenomenon. And every cliché is based in reality. And “the sophomore slump” is a cliché. So add 1+1 and figure it out. Sterling Grant, a total enigma to me. I do not know her very well but I have watched her ski a bunch of times and I can only assume that she has not performed on race day at “The Show.” She is a much better slalom skier than her World Cup results show.
Sarah Schleper has been phenomenal since the Nor Ams at Loveland. Almost like the Aspen disappointment made her evaluate her place, and her motivation. Like she came out of that race re-dedicated to making herself into a new and better version of what she once was. Having a child changes people. I have a son and it changed me dramatically. I know it changed my wife even more. I cannot imagine what it does to a female athlete, especially in a risk-based sport. Sarah has probably had to grapple with emotions that no male athlete will ever have to deal with. Be proud that Sarah is one of ours, and that she is making herself and all of us proud.

And Kaylin, I did not leave you out but I got on a roll about Sarah. Move up, make the flip, and win the second run….simple.
Good luck ladies!

Levi Women's Preview, Size Matters.

While certainly not the only ingredient for success at Levi, size has played a role in the results over the years in Levi. As has been mentioned in the previous blogs, Levi is a flat hill, with a long flat out of the start and another long one at the bottom after a steep, then moderate middle pitch.
When you put the hill profile together with the course setters, you get a recipe for carving style slalom and higher speeds. Just the pure impact of the gates at higher race speeds gives the advantage to the bigger girls. They can pound through the block with less disruption, then can carve slightly larger radius turns and are will not likely be required to be too quick on the pitches. And it just goes to common sense that they would be able to grip better on a slick surface.
Both course setters have set close to the minimum turns at other venues and both have very tall slalom skiers on their squads.
The result history backs this up. Last year's winner was Lindsey Vonn, 2007 was re-scheduled to Reiteralm, AUT. 2006 was won by Marlies Schild who is fairly tall as well. Prior to that, the Levi race was a women's only event in the late season with 2 races per visit. Those races were won by Kostelic, Paerson, Poutiainen and Maria Riesch. All of whom have size on their side. Last year, Maria Pietilae-Holmner was 2nd and Riesch was 3rd. The only really "small" girl with a podium on this hill is Kathrin Zettel (AUT) who is truly tiny. But I would argue is one of the best carvers of a slalom ski on the women's tour.
So does that mean that only the bigger girls have a chance? No, of course not, it is a ski race and we all know that anything can happen. Start numbers, fog, wind, snow, rain, a funky course set. The possibility of anything happening is part of the fun. "That's why they play the games" as one NFL analyst is prone to say.

FRONT RUNNERS:
Maria Riesch (GER): 3 podiums with 1 win in the last 6 starts in Levi. With good product on her feet, I think she is a contender again. Her coach sets run 1. She should get out to a good start and could hold on if the conditions are good on run 2.
And don't forget, she is the reigning World Champ in slalom.
Maria Pietilae-Hlomner (SWE): Maria was 2nd last year in Levi. I do think racing in Scandanavia will help the Swede this weekend. She is good enough and will have a top 7 start number. For her to get a win here she will need to ski a perfect race. Full speed, no mistakes, smart tactics.
Sarka Zahrobska (CZE): I think Sarka is a good slalom skier with a lot of opportunity to win this season. I just don't think it is here. She is a notoriously slow starter to the season and has had very little success in Levi.
Kathrin Zettel (AUT): As I mentioned earlier, she is a great skier. One of the best carvers of slalom turns on the women's tour. Very consistent and very quick. She truly needs to risk to overtake some of the bigger girls on this hill but she can do it.
Sandrine Aubert (FRA): Watch out for her. Very tall girl and coming off a roll at the end of last season. She won the last 2 World Cups and was leading the World Champs SL after run 1. I am sure the pressure was just too much racing at home in France but she showed her ability on a tough hill in Val d'Isere and went on after that to put up the 2 wins. I think she is primed to move into the slalom elite along with Maria Riesch, Mrs. Vonn, ET AL.
Anja Paerson (SWE): I know this is not the most popular opinion, but I just don't think she has much left in the tank. She won her first World Cup in December 1998 in Mammoth and has been going at it in 4 events pretty much ever since. 11 years is a long time on that tour, plus factor in 4 event skiing in the winter and all the days on snow in the preparation period to be ready to ski 4 events. I am not buying into her as a contender in slalom anymore. She might be able to steel herself for a push for one last Olympics, but I have been watching her fade a little at a time the last couple of seasons and slalom is usually the first to go. I will continue to count her out until she gets the job done.
Tanja Poutiainen (FIN): Never count out the home country! The Levi fans, while only about 5,000 in number, are extremely vocal. They are very loyal and proud of the home team as well as highly lubricated. They will push her to a good finish. I do think she can win and is riding high after the win in Soelden.
OTHERS TO WATCH:
Frida Hansdottir (SWE): A strong end to 2009 and racing in Scandanavia. She could get something done.
Ana Jelusic (CRO): She has a top 5 here in the past but her lack of size will work against her. It puts her in the high risk/reward category.
Therese Borssen (SWE): Again, a strong finish to the season last year and some decent results in the past at Levi. Scandanavian racing is different and there is some history for the Swedes, Norwegians and Finns getting strong results above the Arctic Circle. The snow is just different and the light is very, well...not light.
A few others to look for are Fanny Chmelar(GER), Susanne Riesch (GER) and Sanni Leinonen (FIN). The 2 German girls and very big and strong with their coach setting run 1. And Susanne had her first big World Cup breakthrough on this hill in 2006. Both Fanny and Susanne will start in the top 15. Sanni is at home and is a crowd favorite.

AMERICANS:
Lindsay Vonn: It is tremendously hard to pick a winner. There are so many variables involved as mentioned above. Plus, add that Lindsey recently switched ski companies late in the prep period. I am not sure she really knows what the skis will do. But, that being said, she is very professional and very focused in all areas and can certainly figure that out quickly. Her dedication will be on display throughout the season in 5 disciplines as she fights to retain the overall World Cup globe and earn an Olympic gold or two on the way. I do think Lindsey will defend her Levi win from last season and win this one too.
I do have one criticism however. And I do know that there are bigger things out there this season than the Levi slalom in mid-November. She had to come back to the states after Soelden to do the promo tour. I hope she got herself back to Europe early enough to fight the jet-lag.
In 2006, when Soelden was canceled, we took our team home to the USA and had training on our "private" slope in Keystone. We had injection for slalom. To shorten the story, the boys never could sleep through the night once we arrived in Levi. The jet-lag was the worst any of us had ever had. And we did not recover in time for the race. 3 of the 4 boys did not qualify while Jimmy did well, finishing 15th.
I think Lindsey got over there earlier than we did in that scenario and can find a way to overcome that issue.
As I said before, I do have confidence in her to get it done and win it again.

Resi Steigler: Resi will be racing on her 24th birthday. It is my birthday too but not my 24th! I think she has a great chance to start her comeback in slalom if her start number is decent. It is a great hill for her as she can take that full-attack style to the hill and make it cleanly to the finish.
Hailey Duke: Hailey had a great season last year. She is sitting in 28th on the current World Cup Start List in slalom which is great news for her. The only negative is that she is not 100%. She is nursing an ankle injury.
Sterling Grant: Sterling has a great opportunity with a high 30s or low 40s start number. The snow usually holds up very well in Levi so she will have a shot at getting a second run.
Kaylin Richardson and Sarah Schleper round out the American effort in Levi but with very poor start numbers, I do not expect a lot.
Julia Mancuso: As far as I know, she is not starting in Levi. No comment on that, yet.

CANADIANS:
With Anna Goodman leading the way and starting in the low to mid-20s, it will be tough for them to get a lot done. Anna had her best result at Levi last season finishing 23rd. She had a solid year last year and did her best racing toward the end of the World Cup season. At this point, I do not know who else will be racing but based on world rank I can only guess that Marie-Michelle Gagnon and Brigitte Acton will be their other starters.

The podium?
Vonn, Poutiainen, Aubert.

More to come, stay tuned!