A Flachau Summary and a Look at Wengen

Looking back at Flachau and a little window into the famous Lauberhornrennen.
I had a lot of fun watching the Flachau slalom on TV; especially considering the lack of perspective that TV gave the hill. It is a solid hill. It has excellent pitch and is very consistent in the middle. There are some short flat sections that precede rolls. It just seemed more flat and less fun on TV. I always thought of it as a very fun hill with a lot of cool terrain to work with. So I think there were some “mysterious” losses of time that were not easily explained by the coverage.
For one, the entire middle section of pitch is a right foot fall-away and a pretty strong one. The dead give-away on that is that there are 2, count ‘em 2, big right-foot delays that cross the hill pretty hard on the second run. A good sign that the course-setter is feeling “pulled’ right the whole way. It is something that was not commented on or very noticeable on video. This type of hill will obviously favor some women who are stronger with their right side, etc.
From watching that race, there were some things that were pretty obvious to me.
1. Marlies Schild is the best women’s slalom skier in the world. She gets to the new ski very early and is solid in the core. This is not only fast, but consistent. And let’s face it; skiing consistently fast is the goal.
2. Tanja Poutiainen is very solid and goes to the new ski well. But she struggles with combinations, especially hairpins and often exits late.
3. Susanne Riesch should have won. She will be a force in slalom in the future. The best thing to see was that she was in heated discussion (or upset) in talking with her coach Christian Schwaiger after the race. I am sure he was consoling her but then teaching her. Learning to win with a lead is very difficult. But it is also a necessity at all levels of FIS racing these days with the flip 30. It is a tough deal and puts on a lot of pressure. Learning to deal with it and ski your own race is tough and takes time.
4. Her sister Maria did a great job and I hope Lindsey can bounce back to get the overall lead back to wear it was. That was a huge hit to Lindsey and I hope she does not have to rely on speed wins only the rest of the season.
5. Schlep is solid now and needs to go a step up in intensity and focus. She knows she needs the early pressure to the new ski but she needs to use it to get in tighter on the pole and exit even earlier and higher on the hill to be able to roll the ski in cleanly. She definitely needs to recognize and execute hairpins better.
6. The rest of our slalom team needs to step it up. We can support them emotionally, but they need to find a way to get on the board too.
7. I will say it one more time. The French girls are scoring and moving up in slalom. Another solid result in slalom from Noens, Worley, Dautherives and Marmottan. Pretty soon, they will all be in the top 30 in slalom and what happens then?
8. The German girls are good at slalom. Aside from the Riesch family, Fanny Chmelar had a great weekend as did Duerr and Geiger. They are on a roll.
9. All 3 Loeseth (NOR) sisters scored points this week.
10. Aside from Brigitte Acton, the Canadians have nothing going on…I do have something to say about the decimation of the team through injury and it will be said at some point. I have to give credit to the men’s slalom team for hanging in there and the women’s DH team to some extent.
WENGEN COMING UP!
We have one of the coolest downhills in the world coming up in one of the most beautiful mountain towns on the planet. For those of you who have not been there, you drive up the valley toward Lauterbrunnen from Interlaken and come to the train station. Unload all your stuff, put it on the train (park your car and get a ticket somewhere in there) and jump on board. The train climbs for a while. Maybe 1000 meters? And drops you in the village of Wengen. There are no cars, only those that are owned by hotels as shuttles and certain service providers, etc. throughout the village. So for the American boys, we call the Park Hotel and they send 2 electric carts down to get us and all of our stuff. A few laps later we are all moved in to the ski room and the hotel. The ski room is under the gondola building and the hotel up on the high end of town. So it kind of feels like the whole town is yours.
There is so much to talk about in Wengen; I can only hope to get a portion of it across in the blog. To step back a little, on the way to the hotel on the one main street, we pass the town square on the right with the stage set-up for awards and draw and bands. Beer stands all around. Behind there is the ice rink, where we spent almost every evening last winter skating around or playing hockey. Between the hotel and the rink is a beginner’s slope that any ski area in the world would dream of having. It is hugely wide with a ton of different minor pitches, right in the middle of town. There are shops and restaurants and bars. The place goes off all night on race weekend, another insane stop on tour.
So at 7 AM you board the train to get pulled all the way up to the Kleine Scheidegg and then jump on the chair to the Lauberhorn start. When you get up there you can see it all. The Jungfrau, The Monch and The Eiger are most prominent and near the ski area. If you look down the opposing valley to Wengen you look into Grindelwald. All attached by lifts. Across the other valley from Wengen is Muerren, an epic ski area and original World Cup stop in its own right. As well, the jet show by the Swiss Air Force just before the race is amazing.
To me, the coolest thing about the Lauberhornrennen is the pure length and variety of it. It is a sneaky hill. You break out of the start and head down a pitch and a series of seemingly endless sweeping high-speed turns with jumps. It goes on forever as such and most of you all will never see it on TV, usually only from a helicopter after a break in the action. But the end of that long series of turns ends in possibly the most famous jump on the World Cup, the Hundschopf. After completing a 180 degree turn to the right, you get on the right foot and jump through a hole in the rock with A- Net hanging out over your head. As a matter of fact, you aim for the end of the net for the jump. You fly under the net, land and find the right foot to move left through the Minshkante and then into Canadian Corner before carrying speed into the road and the “S” turn. By now, you are on the hill for 1:20, longer than most USSA downhills. The importance of the Minschkante and Canadian Corner cannot be denied. Get yourself out to the left off the Minsch and then get hard to the left foot on the brutal fall-away to stay high and carry speed into the road. The best thing about Wengen is that it’s sneaky. You get on the road and your instinct is to relax, but the “S” in the middle is always ICY and super narrow. If you fall-asleep or are not on the game, you hit the airbags and the game is over. Even though it is dead flat here, you can definitely lose the race here. Walchhofer did last season, I was standing 10 feet away when he bounced off the little side hill and almost hit the A-Net. Then through the famous tunnel and into the Super G turns. Again, this downhill is so long and the SG section is never on TV. It leads into the Haneggschuss area which is the fastest section of World Cup DH. Ligety went 158 KMH here a few years ago in the kombi downhill. Anyway, you need to exit the SG turns with a high enough angle on the Haneggschuss to make speed for the next flat. And down into the “S” at the bottom which is always injected and you have hit about 2:20. One more turn and on to the finish pitch, your legs are totally seized up, praying to finish. I once saw Bode throw himself off the finish pitch head-first because he was “done” and went way too straight into the pitch and knew he would not pull it off so he just dove, head-first down the finish pitch. I was there, I saw it, and he won.
It’s an insane week. The Kombi on Friday, then the DH and then the slalom. The slalom hill deserves an article all to itself. I think with training tomorrow and then kombi, I might be able to do that.
Watch the Swiss here; they have been capitalizing on the home crowd in recent years. I will be shocked if Cuche doesn’t make his statement. Defago won here last year and a variety of Swiss have dominated the Kombi in recent years. Watch for Janka to come back to prominence in both races. The American boys have good guys for this race. Miller can win, so can Marco as can Nyman. It is a great hill for Nyman because his fitness is such a strong point. I think Nyman just needs to tactically figure out the bottom section. It is usually injected and is always dark and very narrow in there. Erik Fisher could do well too if he can ski the top turns better. Italy boys Heel and Innerhofer can do well here too and watch for the return of Peter Fill. I don’t think he will be on the podium but he will play in the game for a while. Always, Walchhofer can do well here as can Klaus Kroell and Georg Streitberger. Mario Scheiber has been very good of late and I would think he will continue here. It looks as though Andrej Jerman will make a statement again. He won in Bormio in convincing fashion and Wengen taxes the system similarly. If he cleans up his top 60 seconds, he will be tough to beat. The Canadians have not looked exceptional in training and I cannot figure out why Erik Guay has not been good all season. But I would not doubt a top 10 appearance by Manny Osborne-Paradis. I think all the athletes were happy for the “day-off” due to the cancellation of the second training run. It will lead to much better skiing out of the guys at the bottom of the course.
Podiums:
Kombi: Janka, Zurbriggen, Zrncic-Dim
DH: Jerman, Sullivan, Defago.
Marco will surface here if he can get the top turns figured out. He did well on top last year and it led to a podium. I also think we will see the resurgence of Defago after the double of Wengen, Kitzbuhel last year will give him confidence.

The Ladies go south to Zagreb

Zagreb for the girls on the 3rd and the guys on the 6th. Then the women follow that up with speed on in Haus, Austria and the guys hoof it all the way across the continent to Adelboden, SUI for the classic GS on the Chuenisbaergli, which can have different spellings than that one. Actually, it is spelled differently on different signs in town. But that is not really the subject of this blog, it should be Zagreb, and focused on the ladies’ race at that. It has been a tough season to figure out so far in slalom. We have had 4 women’s world cup slalom races and 4 different winners: Riesch, Zahrobska, Aubert and Schild.
So when I start to think about Zagreb, and look at who has won here, I have to start thinking Riesch right away. I would like to think Vonn, but that won’t happen with an injured hand. Slalom is too tough on the hand. Pole plants blocking gates, it just seems like it would be bothersome. Regardless, Zagreb is a fairly mellow hill. It rolls a bit and has some steeper pitches which are pretty short. In the past, visibility and snow conditions have played a part, at least in the men’s races. And if you put together the fact that you stay in a downtown, urban environment and get police escorts to the hill and public draw and the put 38,000 rabid Croatian fans on the hill, it can be difficult. Especially for the women, not because they are women, but because they generally do not draw that kind of crowd. I was glad to see they drew a nice crowd in Lienz last week. But I am sure the crowd in Zagreb will be much bigger, and much more enthusiastic. And they want to help Ana Jelusic and Nika Fleiss up the standings as much as possible. They are nationalistic, to say the least. When Janica was still racing, there were stories of fans pummeling the first run leader with snow and ice while she rode the chair up for her second run start. Protected only by her goggles and slalom helmet.
As I digressed, I realized I needed to go further on the different results this year and in previous years in Zagreb. There have been 3 different winners the last 3 seasons here. But 2 have won slaloms this season (Riesch and Schild). The other winner was Poutiainen in 2008. Add on to that piece of information, Christian Schwaiger, the coach of the German women, has already set a 1st run this season in Levi, and Maria won the run, and the race. So when you line up a winner on this season, with a previous winner on this hill and winning on a course set by the first run setter, who HAPPENS to be her coach…well I think I lean that way. Maria will likely win this race. All things point to her. But I think Marlies Schild skied the best last week and is coming back from injury so she should be improving her racing every week. And then who? I go with Aubert. And watch for all the French girls who seem to be on a roll!
So, my podium looks like: Maria Riesch, Marlies Schild, Sandrine Aubert.
CANADIANS:
Anna Goodman has had a great season so far and I think she will bounce back from her first run DNF last week in Lienz. She starts 20 and a few more results and she could be in the draw! I thought that Brigitte Acton was solid and needs to put a few races together to really build some confidence. With the other starters not really showing much so far this season, I am reluctant to say anything. I think Marie-Michele Gagnon is an excellent skier but hasn’t really made her mark on the World Cup yet and I think she is a better GS threat than in Slalom.

AMERICANS:
Lindsey starts 3, which is great. But with her injury I just cannot see her competing for a podium. I will be the first one to cheer tomorrow morning when I check results, but I just don’t see it right now. Hailey Duke is starting 35 and I keep waiting for something a little more out of her. It seems she has a bit of the Jitloff bug. “Now, I’ve made it…” after a good year last year and a World Championship appearance, it has sort of dropped off. There have been some injuries but you have to wonder about some complacency. I am not ripping on her or Jitloff personally. It is a very real psychological phenomenon. And every cliché is based in reality. And “the sophomore slump” is a cliché. So add 1+1 and figure it out. Sterling Grant, a total enigma to me. I do not know her very well but I have watched her ski a bunch of times and I can only assume that she has not performed on race day at “The Show.” She is a much better slalom skier than her World Cup results show.
Sarah Schleper has been phenomenal since the Nor Ams at Loveland. Almost like the Aspen disappointment made her evaluate her place, and her motivation. Like she came out of that race re-dedicated to making herself into a new and better version of what she once was. Having a child changes people. I have a son and it changed me dramatically. I know it changed my wife even more. I cannot imagine what it does to a female athlete, especially in a risk-based sport. Sarah has probably had to grapple with emotions that no male athlete will ever have to deal with. Be proud that Sarah is one of ours, and that she is making herself and all of us proud.

And Kaylin, I did not leave you out but I got on a roll about Sarah. Move up, make the flip, and win the second run….simple.
Good luck ladies!

Val d'Isere and Aare, and Jackson Hole...

Obviously, I gave the jinx to Janka this week. I am like the cover of Sports Illustrated so far this year. Anyone I feel confident will win, does not. I am currently in Jackson, Wyoming at a regional FIS race. It is a different level of racing but it is a lot of fun. Being back in the States and working at this level is rejuvenating. The kids are all enthusiastic and putting in the highest effort on the hill, no one is used to being coddled by the system. They are stacked into condos or hotel rooms to reduce cost. They get out on the hill early and stay out until the end of the day in most cases. They carry clothes for each other and cheer each other on at the start. It is a true moment in sport. For the most part, they want to do as well as they can, and they want their friends to do well too. Some kids become mini-stars within their peer groups for big move-ups or huge results. It is a very happy thing to behold. Even when pressed with something that might be controversial like a brutally tight and tough course set, the course setter takes some heat but with a bit of kindness rolled into it. We have all been there; we have all set something that we thought would run better and caused a large percentage of DNFs. In this case it was Tyler Palmer. I think I had heard of him before. Like from the poster on my wall as a kid racing in Vermont. He was a World Cup winner. He won slalom in St. Moritz in January, 1971 along with one in Sestriere in December of 1971. He caught a ton of light-hearted crap from everyone all day as the kids struggled with his 1968-era set. He himself said, “I saw Killy run this exact course in 1968, and he crashed too!” Anyway, it has been a fun 3 days getting back to the roots here in Jackson and we have 1 more to go. Great to be here!
But on the serious side, what did we see this weekend? The Val d’Isere hill on the Face de Bellevarde is supremely difficult and relentless. And when you see course workers beating on the surface with rakes and shovels, it cannot be good news on that difficult of a hill. This week, it once again earned the nickname Val de Misere. When I watched the races this afternoon I was struck once again with the difficulty. The difficulty to set a good course where the athletes can ski their best, and the inability for them to execute a plan with any success. Even the guys on the podium could not have been happy with the performance. With regard to the outcome I am sure they picked up the check, but I doubt they were internally happy with their performance. It’s possible that they are only happy to be out of there and on to Val Gardena and Alta Badia. I was pretty much an Austrian party in France this week. Taking advantage of others’ greater mistakes, the Austrians won all 3 races. Raich, Walchhofer and Hirscher all came with wins. A win is a win but I think it is un-cool when wins happen by default or attrition. Big weekends nonetheless from Hirscher, Raich and Baumann. A great job from Ted in the Super-G just to hang in the race, let alone podium in Super-G. That should show everyone that you never give up in a ski race. Rumor has it that he has a new pair of slalom skis that are working very well and we should be expecting resurgence from Ted in his breakthrough discipline. It’s funny how the misfortune of one can help another, figure that one out on your own.
Some other quick observations on the week in Val d’Isere. The Swiss, after handing it to everyone all season were pretty well crushed in France. Cuche hurt his ribs in a free ski crash on the Super-G hill. He raced the SG but pulled out of the GS. Berthod was their only guy in the GS finish area after 2 runs. Jitloff got his first points of the season. Zamansky scored again. And to Leif Haugen, who scored in his 3rd consecutive GS on 3 VERY different hills, “Right on man! College skiers all over the USA are on the bandwagon.” If you think the Face does not favor GS guys in the SG and slalom guys in the GS look at the result. How many GS points has Lizeroux scored in GS in his career? How many wins has Marcel Hirscher in GS? How many World Cup wins does he have, period? Look it up! Hop and switch Blardone brings the heat every time on that hill. Markus Larsson in the top 10? In SG you have Ligety on the podium, Raich 5th, Scheiber, Svindal, Gorza, Miller, Cuche, Hirscher!, de Tessieres, Baumann…All capable if not absolute GS skiers. What else happened? Miller and Cuche did not start due to injury. Miller with a chronic ankle problem that is exacerbated by the tough, steep, bumpy hill. And Tommy Ford just missed his start. Too much time in the restaurant at the top and miss-timed it. It happens. Not often but it does. I would like to remind him that Ted slept through an entire race day in Korea and came out and won the next day. So Tommy should expect big things in Alta Badia!
I talked to Pete Korfiatis today and he said he had to set about 22-23 meters all the way down that GS hill. I have to say that is not GS. Sliding and hitting just makes the whole sport look bad on TV and makes the athletes feel bad about their experience. I love the challenging hills on the World Cup in all the disciplines, but after being on this hill a few times I think it feels forced. I don’t like it and I don’t think I ever will. Move back to La Daille!
THE LADIES IN AARE.
The French girls swept the wins in Aare and I have to say I am a bit surprised in one way, but not in another. I expected the Swedes to make more of a push at home in the dark in Northern Sweden in December. The very grippy snow and the dark usually favors them. But I am not surprised at the French right now. The girls were all at the NorAms I attended last month in Colorado and I was very impressed with their chemistry within the group. You can tell by just watching them in the lodge or at the start. Very happy, relaxed and calm. They all seemed genuinely happy to be there at a Continental Cup and to be there with each other. I am also a big fan of Tessa Worley. She is a fantastic GS skier and will get more wins as her career moves on. I have been touting her all year and she came through this week. Just like what she brings to the hill as a skier and in her attitude. Good focus on the hill, an easy demeanor and good skiing. Look for more from her. Tina Maze continues to impress and make it look pretty easy. Brignone backed up Aspen with another good result! Validating a result with another is something we all hope for. It was great to see Sarah Schleper finish 8th in a World Cup. But even more importantly she won the second run. That momentum cannot be replaced. Her confidence should be skyrocketing! Further congrats to Chemmy Alcott making a statement in 11th for the Great Britain program! Mark Tilston should be happy. And to Ingrid Jacquemod for continuing to score in GS! And to Jessica Lindell-Vikarby for scoring again in her return after being injured.
The slalom was won by Sandrine Aubert. The girl from Les 2 Alpes was about a month late on my call from Levi. So I gave up on calling her for the win and she wins…I guess that is just the way it is. The Riesch girls crushed it onto the podium. The first time for them together! And I need to make a comment about tall girls in slalom again. Aare is a relatively tame hill with cold, grippy, slow snow. So the bigger girls, if they ski mistake –free, can win or equal their best. Weight helps with the friction in the snow but also the ability to block the gate high off the snow creates less resistance. Zettel got 4th and she is small, but she is seriously a better technician than most girls. A big shout-out to Anna Goodman of Canada with her first top 10! After 2 wins in Loveland at the NorAms, that should really boost her confidence as we move on. And to Hailey Duke, back in the second run! Boise’s own can build on that!

Lindsey and The Lake

Even with an awful weekend in Aspen, Lindsey Vonn still leads the overall World Cup standings. And the rest of the girls should feel relieved they are still so close. Maria Riesch is not far behind but Zettel is already 169 points out. She is in the lead because she is by far the best Downhiller in the world and is also the best Super-g skier; even if she handed the race to Lizz Goergl in Lake Louise. Lindsey had that race won and mysteriously lost over .5 seconds on the bottom flat. And they are on the same ski brand.
Looking back at the DH races at the Lake, Lindsey was obviously the heavy favorite. She won by large margins of victory in the past and it just kept coming. The 2 wins in Lake Louise make it 8 for her just at this venue. The combination of sweeping turns, cold snow and long glide sections make it the perfect hill for her. She consistently executes the fall-away section as well or better than anyone, every time. And then keeps her head about her in the very fast Gunbarrel and even more importantly, exiting Gunbarrel. There is a camera switch there so it is difficult to see on TV sometimes. But the trail bends to the left at almost 90 degrees at that point and there is usually a little against the grain turn there and if the girls fall asleep, thinking it’s over, then they can chisel that one and begin dumping speed the rest of the way. I believe this is what happened when Lindsey lost the Super-G. She had a large lead with good speed and no mistakes coming into Gunbarrel. But there is a little bounce in her right leg in that corner, and with the very cold snow temps and sharp crystals, the friction can slow you down quickly.
As I mentioned earlier in the week, Downhill 1 was a big day for the North American contingent. The girls stacked themselves in the points. And many of them expressed sentiment that they were very happy to have another crack at it on the following day. And some of them certainly took advantage. Brydon backed it up with another podium, Britt Janyk locked down another top 10, Alice McKennis followed up her first-ever points with her first top 10. Cookie moved up to 11th, solidifying herself in the top 30 on the WCSL. Julia was 12th, and don’t get me wrong, I think Julia is still a great ski racer, but she needs these small victories to build her confidence as the calendar steams on toward Whistler. Kelly Vanderbeek was 13th and Larisa Yurkiw finished 16th for the Canadians. Leanne Smith was 23rd and Chelsea Marshall was 25th. The American girls scored 186 World Cup points on this day. That is a huge number and has to help morale as the girls bounce back from the Aspen troubles and head to Europe.
The Super-G was an interesting race. Fishnet showed how difficult it can run. If you were not sound technically there, you killed speed or just did not make it. It looked as though the FIS injected that section to save it from falling apart. No one likes that change in snow, but it happens a lot and the teams know it in advance and the girls all see it at inspection. Nonetheless, it increased the degree of difficulty. Congrats to Larisa Yukiw again for scoring in SG and to Shona Rubens. It was a nice, solid and professional run out of Britt Janyk. This week is the best she skied in years. She was in the front of the boots, driving the skis and looked physically strong in every turn. Aside from a sloppy jump at the bottom, so was Kelly Vanderbeek. My only problem with watching her is that I keep waiting for her edge to grab and slap her to the ground. She just constantly looks like she lacks control over the front of her skis. And my last mention is to Keely Kelleher. 20th place in the Super-G for her personal best World Cup finish! Congratulations Keels and build some momentum!

General comments and observations on the women’s races.
There was far too much hanging on to the turn from the entire field. Finish the turn earlier and get on to the new one, all of you! The more you hang on, the later you switch. The later you switch, the harsher the pressure. The harsher the pressure, the more you slide or grind. And, when you switch too late, you lose snow contact and we all know that is slow.
What terrain are you looking at? Almost everyone was getting bounced around like crazy, especially in the SG. Everyone needs to inspect terrain better and look for it when you are approaching it. And I am not talking about jumps and big breaks. I am talking about small rolls, ripples and bumps. These are the ones that knock you out of your tuck or just bounce your skis around.
I am amazed that the FIS allows 2 DH races at the same venue at the World Cup level. I understand it after a cancellation has happened but to do it at the opener just puts the entire field behind because you know that Lindsey Vonn is going to win if she executes. If I were a nation with a big voice like Switzerland or Austria, I would be screaming about this schedule.
Last, I want to give a big hand to Sarah Schleper. She had a tough go at Aspen, basically holding on and skiing tentatively. She blamed only herself. She went to Loveland to the NorAm on the injection and skied inconsistently on day 1 but acknowledged that she needed to get pressure on the ski higher in the turn and get off sooner. She did that on the second slalom day and got herself a podium and a nice 6.80 result losing by just .08. Good luck in Are!

Can you feel it? 2 World Cups tomorrow!

That's right, two races in North America tomorrow and I cannot wait. My Palm Pre will be on live timing all day while I am on the hill and I will watch the races as soon as possible tomorrow. I am a junkie, I can't stop watching racing and the anticipation for tomorrow is almost too much to take. Last year at this time I was trying to sleep before the race in Lake Louise and not doing very well at it. Not really nerves, more like excitement! The season is about it get into full swing.

LAKE LOUISE MEN'S DOWNHILL

The training runs were marred by weather. The 2nd run was canceled which really does not have an impact on the guys. I think they would rather only have 2 runs most of the time. But it does change things for the service guys and ski selection. They will have less information, some of which is not reliable. Both training runs were strange and inconsistent. There was softening snow on day 1 and then the residue from the 15 centimeters of snow that fell on day 2 when they went out of the gate on day 3. According to Uncle Virgil (USST Head Men's DH Coach, Chris Brigham) today's run was fluky. With some groomed snow on the track and changing light and weather. The light was good early and then went away later. The wind picked up and was gusty at times. You can look at the times all you want from today but it just can't tell you anything. And race day brings out the true competitors.
The draw might tell you something too. Walchhofer chose 16 with the first pick. Kroell grabbed 19 with pick number 2. Svindal 20, Defago 22, Cuche 18,Manny Osborne-Paradis picked 17 and Bode 21. What does that say? They do not want to start early. And Bode wants to see the other guys go because 15 was open when he selected. So in the random part of the draw, Austrians drew 4 in the first 5 starters along with Adrian Theaux(FRA). If the big boys are right about how the track will shape up, these Austrian boys will have a slow track starting early. In contrast, Sullivan drew 23, Lanning 24, Fisher 25 and Nyman 29. Again, going off of how the highest ranked guys chose, these would seem like great draws. Directly after the TV break so some hill work gets done and very close to where highly ranked guys chose.

FAVORITES:

Walchhofer(AUT)- A downhill like this has to favor him. Right in his wheelhouse. As I said before, this is a big downhiller's downhill and he is a big downhiller. A consummate pro who has excellent skiing skills. He is often derided as not being a good skier but he has been in the top 30 in the world in slalom and has scored world cup GS points numerous times. He has won slalom runs on the world cup level.
Kroell(AUT)- Another strong Austrian candidate in this race. Good glider, good skier, strong and big. He was 5th last year at Lake Louise.
Svindal(NOR)- One of my favorite skiers and people on the tour. But recovering from the leg injury it sounds like he is not quite willing to risk. His Tweets this week seem to hint that he is not 100%. 7th last year in his first DH back from his injury in Beaver Creek the previous year.
Defago(SUI)- He proved last year that he is a great downhiller winning Wengen and Kitzbuhel back to back. The 2 most legendary downhills in a 7 day period. He was 8th last year here and I would think he would not do worse that that this year.
Cuche(SUI)- Geting better with age. He won the first training run and should compete for the podium this year.

CANADIANS
The home hill and adrenaline definitely pays off. Sometimes it energizes and sometimes it pressurizes. The undisputed leader of their squad, Erik Guay, finished 10th last year in a somewhat fluky race. He did look tight and made some line decisions that were too risky. Manny Osborne-Paradis was 30th, he really should do better on this hill but again, was there unseen pressure? He might be the best glider in the world. John Kucera should have a shot at the podium. He is the World Champion in Downhill, granted on the opposite type hill. But Johnny is a great skier and can get it done for the home fans. Robbie Dixon came off the Nor Am circuit to finish 24th last year starting 60th. Dixon starts 7th, he should score. Jan Hudec is big, strong and fast but is coming off yet another injury. And Louis-Pierre Helie has been skiing well in the training runs. He starts 60. Tyler Nella starts 64 in his 2nd World Cup. He was 51st in Wengen in his only other appearance. I watched Tyler improve dramatically through the week in Wengen. He is a strong skier and I would not be entirely surprised if he snuck into the back end of the points.

AMERICANS

BODE MILLER- Probably the best chance we have in Lake Louise. Always the competitor and always fast on that hill. If he keeps his plan together he will podium.
Bode was 16th last year after winning training runs. It was a strange day last year, funky weather and an ill-timed hold in front of him and behind him due to fog.
MARCO SULLIVAN- A true downhiller. He has worked on his GS skills diligently for the last 2 years and it really has showed. Especially in his Super-g. With a little luck last season, he would have had a much more productive DH season as well. Marco was
23rd last year in a dense fog.
TJ LANNING- Last year, TJ charged from the back to finish 9th in stormy and foggy conditions. He showed his strength both physically and mentally. Finally announcing his big time arrival on the FIS World Cup. He has a great number at 24.
ERIK FISHER-Fish came on last season after the big day in Val Gardena. He followed that show up with 11th at Kitzbuhel. The kid has it for sure and I saw him last week skiing much improved GS. I see Fish finishing in the top 15. He also has a great number at 25.
STEVEN NYMAN- Believe in Steven! I do. He goes 29th.
SCOTT MACARTNEY- Mac is back again this year. The horrific crash in Kitzbuhel cut short a fantastic season and his knee injury in Wengen cut-off his comeback. He was doing great when he got hurt. Hopefully he can get this comeback underway here tomorrow. Mac starts 35.
JEREMY TRANSUE- We know him as "Worm" and that he will be in this blog for the rest of the season. Worm has battled injuries his whole career but has great natural talent and might be as good at gliding as Manny Osborne-Paradis. Worm wears 57 tomorrow.
ANDREW WEIBRECHT- "Warhorse" or "Horse" or "Warbird" (he'll answer to any of them) is a fantastic talent and was on his way to a top 20 finish in Lake Louise last year when he inexplicably almost fell over while on a straight, flat glide section only 20 seconds from the finish. He starts 64.
TRAVIS GANONG- "Traw" is starting 71 and in his first World Cup. He was 13th today coming out of the back in training. It would be unlikely for him to score a point tomorrow but it sure would be exciting for all involved.

DARK HORSES/OTHERS TO WATCH

Hans Olsson(SWE) has a great history on this hill and is a big guy with great gliding skills. He starts 11. Werner Heel and Christoph Innerhofer of Italy will do well, they always do. Heel starts 9 and Inner starts 12. Innerhofer was 6th last year. Carlo Janka(SUI) is a great skier and starts 15. Janka was 2nd last year at Lake Louise. And Andrej Jerman(SLO) is starting 27th. He has won World Cup Downhills and is a strong glider too. "Jerry" could pop into the top 5.

THE PODIUM: Miller, Walchhofer, Cuche.

ASPEN WOMEN'S GIANT SLALOM

I did most of the writing on this one the other night. But with the start numbers out it seems there is more to say.
I spoke with Stacey Cook who will start 56 tomorrow. They had their free ski today on the race hill and her reaction was clear. "It is really, really hard." It was injected on Tuesday, skied on today, it will be raced on tomorrow. She also said, "I don't have to worry about the course deteriorating."
That being said, let's go inside the numbers.
Maria Pietilae-Holmner(SWE) drew 1. Hoelzl(GER)2. Goergl(AUT)3. Poutiainen(FIN)4. Zettel(AUT)5. Maze(SLO)6. Karbon(ITA) 7. Our friend Lindsey Vonn drew 9, which is great. Little grooves and bouncing chatters can happen on that hard injection and 9 is a great place to start. Julia Mancuso is 18, Megan McJames 30, Sarah Schleper 35, Leanne Smith 41, Stacey Cook 56. Canadians Gagnon and Janyk start 29 and 54 respectively. With McJames sneaking into the top 30, I really like her chances. As I said before, I like the way she skis, she needs to get the job done in Aspen. I think she will.
One last mention that needs to be made. Sarah Jarvis(NZE) is on the start list at number 69. I used to coach Sarah at Mammoth Mountain, California when she was a J3. I was surprised to see her on the list and it might be a way to get her on the hill before the Nor Ams start in Aspen on Monday. Sarah is making a push to qualify for the New Zealand Olympic Team headed for Vancouver in February.
The other night I picked Karbon, Poutiainen and Vonn in that order and I am sticking to it.
Turn on your Universal Sports TV tomorrow or watch on www.universalsports.com. Two races in one day, the only thing better would be three.

Aspen Women's GS- Preview

It is Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. Those of us on the road this holiday will give thanks and eat turkey with our teammates and friends rather than our families. It has been like this most years of my coaching career, and this year is no different. It is one of the things that make our teammates like family. Why it becomes so hard to let go of them and of the sport as we get older. The bonds that are created by having holidays together are tight.
Tomorrow, the men will take their second training run in Lake Louise and the women will travel to Aspen and settle into their housing, and get ready for free skiing on the race hill on Friday. According to Aspen Valley Ski Club Director, Jeff Kai, the hill is in great shape with man-made snow and injection they did last night. From all that he has said it sounds like the conditions will be excellent
The race hill in Aspen is officially called Lower Ruthie's by the FIS and it has a few places to watch carefully. The first is the bottom of Spring Pitch, which is basically the last bit of Aztec. The ladies need to charge down Spring Pitch and nail the last few turns on the pitch to carry speed as the course bends to the left onto Summer Road. This area is make or break. Someone who can take a little more risk earlier on the pitch will be able to carry more speed across the road as long as she can execute the turns cleanly as the bottom of the pitch approaches and the compression there does not cause a problem. The decision making here along with execution can define their run. After the road the girls will enter Strawpile. As you can tell by the name, this section has large rolls and terrain features. Side-hills, drop-offs. The good terrain skier with some guts will do best through here. After Strawpile things are pretty mellow to the finish. All of this action with injected snow will cause some errors to be made. Both in judgement and execution. The decisions made during inspection and before the start will make a mark on this race, as will the execution of these decisions.
Course Setting:
Last year, both courses were set within 2 turns of minimum which tells me the courses can be set open. Plenty of room between gates. A lot of carving and a lot of fun.
The first run will be set by Guenther Obkircher(AUT). Guenther is a long-time men's coach on all different levels in the Austrian system. From Development to World Cup and back down. Now he is with the Austrian Tech girls. Zettel, Schild, Kirchgasser and Brem are his best. Liz Goergl is not in his group but was 3rd in Aspen last year. Watching him set here in Vail all week, it looks like he will set 26-28 meters for distance most of the time and open it up a bit at the finish. His girls have been skiing well all week. He will try to stick to his own identity as a course setter so his team sees things that they are used to seeing. I would expect them all to have good first runs.
The second run is set by Stefano Costazza(ITA). The same will go for him and will help his athletes. Costazza set in La Molina, Spain last season and set 44 turns, within 4 of minimum. The run he set was won by Zettel, Moelgg was 2nd and Maria Pietilae-Holmner was 3rd. For Americans, Julia was 12th. We watched the La Molina race last year on TV in our apartments near Innsbruck, AUT, the weather was very funky. Warm and very windy with injected snow that was failing under the strength of Mother Nature. This does not discount the results, they are as real as any others. But it does ask the question as to the relevance of the course setter with regard to results in that type of situation.

THE SKIERS:

Tanja Poutiainen(FIN)- I saw Tanja a bit this week and I did get to watch her ski. As I mentioned earlier in the week she was very detail oriented and solid. I watched her free skiing and saw she was making strong transitions and working hard on clean initiations. Great stuff from a great skier. She was happy, relaxed and polishing her approach. She basically said, "One race at a time..." Sounds like any professional athlete anywhere who has been winning. She was second in Aspen last year and will easily be in the mix this week.
Kathrin Zettel(AUT)- She had the flu during the Levi slalom and could not race. She then had to fly here after recovery. The Austrians seem to be keeping her on low volume and few repeat days. They seem concerned with her health and hydration. I will go on a limb and say that she will be less likely to be a factor in Aspen. Recent illness, air travel, jet lag, low volume, the dehydration that flu brings on? It will be tough for her to get it done.
Tina Maze(SLO)- Tina looked very strong and clean in all of her runs in Vail this week. I have been impressed with her skiing,speed and consistency. I would not doubt if she competed for a podium in Aspen.
Denise Karbon(ITA)- I think she is the best female GS skier in the world. I will bet on her every time. She was absolutely crushing the pitch here in Vail today which ends with a bend to the left like in Aspen. She won the first run in Aspen last year and had a problem on the 2nd run, finishing 15th. The only negative for her in Aspen is there might not be enough pitch for her over the duration of the hill.
Kati Hoelzl(GER)- She was fastest here yesterday in some timed runs with girls present from Italy, France and the USA. No other top 7 girls were present for the timed runs. She is a good skier and can compete. The Germans have also been in Vail for about a week.
Tessa Worley(FRA)- She won in Aspen last year, she is a fighter and she seems to be skiing pretty well. Repeat wins are hard to come by on the World Cup but I do think she can be competitive.
Michaela Kirchgasser(AUT)- She has been coming on in GS, her coach is setting, she has seemed very happy and relaxed around Vail all week. I don't know how much pure speed she has in GS, but she is an excellent skier and has an advantage with the course setting. They have been here since the 17th. Look for her in the top 10 by the end of the day on Saturday.

AMERICANS:

Lindsey Vonn- Last year, Lindsey had her best GS result finishing 4th in Aspen. She was 7th after the first run with a mediocre start number. Now she starts 8-15 and is skiing GS better than ever. She is another month on her new equipment since Soelden. She has had unbeatable training in Vail since returning from Levi. She has had her own lane at times, full length, prime real estate. Today she looked very strong and was going on a tight line while making clean turns. I would expect an excellent performance from her. She also seems to be used to her new skis and very happy with the whole equipment package.

Julia Mancuso- At his point I can only hope she does well. The few runs I saw were not exceptionally fast.

Megan McJames- As I have said in previous blogs, I love the way Megan skis. She makes a very nice transition and clean initiation as long as she has time to do so. I think the course sets in Aspen will give her the time. I also think that Colorado snow and Park City snow are very similar. She grew up on this stuff and it does help. So will the home crowd. I am very high on Megan's chances.

Sarah Schleper- Home snow and she was 13th last year in Aspen. Pretty good stuff and a chance to repeat that type of performance.

Jess Kelley- Jess is a great technical skier who needs to find her groove. To get herself in gear and just get after it. She is highly trained after years on the ski team and numbers of years on the World Cup, she needs to put aside any drama and just go.

Stacey Cook- My personal favorite as I was her coach at Mammoth before I moved on to the ski team. Stacey even lived at our house and remains one of my wife's best friends. Stace won the time trial the ski team held for selection. She has scored World Cup points in GS in her career so it is not a shock she won the spot. But her rank is 113 on the FIS list which means she will start near the back. The circumstance cannot drive her performance, she needs to take chances and make it work from back there. She is playing with house money and needs to ski like it.

CANADIANS:

Simard will sneak into the top 30 on the start list so she has a chance. Gagnon is a great young skier with a good number but unless she is able to make major changes from Soelden, I don't think anything earth shattering is going to happen.

DARK HORSES:
Look for Viktoria Rebensburg(GER) and Stefanie Koehle(AUT). I just think they are both excellent skiers and competitors and will eventually break through.

The Podium? This one seems tougher. But I think I am going with Karbon for the win, Poutiainen 2nd and Vonn 3rd. Her first World Cup GS podium.

Choices

We all make choices. With skiing, and more specifically ski racing, we make choices about many things. Training venue, training conditions, travel days, days off, using or not using an opportunity that is presented. When you look at the contrasts in these choices, they do not seem like much. Like they will not make much of a difference. But when you look at a sport that is measured in hundredths of seconds, and probably should be measured in thousandths, these decisions make all the difference. Between 1st and 2nd, 3rd and 4th, 30th and 31st. All the placings that really matter in World Cup and all ski racing usually are decided by very small margins. So when to fly, where and when to train, when not to train, what to eat and when, hydration, sleep, when to do conditioning and what time to do so all play a role. What can inspire? What can call to question? All these things make a difference. This is what the coach does in approach to a race. To make these choices but also to take advantage of relationships, call in favors. To give their athletes the best possible chance to take advantage of their opportunities. When you do all of these things well, all you have done is give your athletes the opportunity to excel. You are not and are never guaranteeing anything, but you can help them succeed by making better decisions.
All of that being said, we are just days away from free skiing day on Friday in Aspen. Teams are spread throughout North America training and making decisions. There are some things I would most likely take into consideration. The first is geographic proximity to the race. Why? Short travel time into the race, similar snow temperatures and texture, more control over days off, avoidance of air travel to name a few. So if you were going to race in Aspen why would you fly from Europe and go to Canada to train? It's like flying from the USA or Canada and prepping for Alta Badia in Norway! But yet teams do this. And even here in Colorado you have differences. Vail is closer to the same elevation of Aspen than Loveland or Keystone. It is even closer geographically. Sleeping at higher elevations has a negative effect on recovery. Even if by only 1000 feet. My opinion is that everyone who has trained at Vail this fall is at an advantage at Aspen. Does it mean that the people training here will prevail in Aspen? No, of course not. But it does give them an advantage.
In talking to Jeff Kai, the Program Director of the Aspen Valley Ski Club, the race hill is well prepared with excellent man-made snow and they injected the hill today. The temperatures have been great here and the water will take very well. They have 2 more days to prep the surface and make it smooth for the ladies' race. I do not think it will be overly slick as their plan has been good. With good but not extreme temperatures and night and good care of the hill.
So who has trained here a lot? Poutiainen, Maze, Drev, Hoelzl, Vonn, Zettel, Kirchgasser, Schild, Leinonen. Maria Riesch just got here so she is fighting some jet lag and training. Mancuso maybe did 2 days here in the last couple weeks, Schleper? I haven't seen her here. Hometown and all... Decisions, I am not criticizing, just observing. And I am sure there is a valid reason for every single decision made and it does not make them incorrect. But it does allow for 2nd guessing.

Soelden: Women's Preview

Look on the calendar and it is 3 days away. What is going on in Soelden? What are the teams doing? How are they acting? What is happening with hill prep? And who are the girls to watch?
Soelden: The weather is iffy and all the coaches and athletes know it. The FIS is acutely aware of their situation. The forecast is for a cool night tonight and very cold tomorrow night. That is the good news. The bad news is that there is a slight warming trend into the weekend. With barely freezing temperatures at night and warm and sunny during the day. Will the hill break down? Probably. But FIS will try to get a preemptive strike against mother nature by trying to freeze the piste as hard as they can!
FIS will inject the hill, possibly twice to take advantage of the cold night on Thursday. They have already done it once and will likely do it again so there is water in the hill and near the surface on Thursday. If is gets warm on Friday, they will cancel the free ski on the race hill to try to preserve the surface. If this weather forecast holds true, the hill will break down in the afternoon of the women's race and likely re-freeze for Sunday. Leaving a very bumpy, icy surface in the morning on Sunday and a broken down, rutted, bumpy and dark 2nd run for the boys.
The athletes are tapering their training down, making some last minute ski selections if necessary, going to press conferences. Some are trying on new uniforms. The coaches are scrambling around getting boots and skis measured, suits plombed and figuring out how to get the athletes to the bib draw on time through the crazy traffic in Soelden. 20,000 fans on a glacier with only 1 way in and out? Tough traffic.
MY 7 FAVORITES:
Katrin Zettel(AUT): I think she is the favorite. She has great start position and a good draw will nail it down. She has steadily improved since October 2005. She was 5th that year, 3rd in 2007 and won last year. Same course setters as last year, which will help her cause.
Tanja Poutiainen (FIN): Very solid skier with good history on the hill and with the course setters. Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races in Soelden. The down-side? If she wins the first run, she will not win the race. Not a great leader going into run 2. I also think she misses her former coach, Michael Bont.
Andrea Fischbacher (AUT): 3rd last year. 5th in 2005. She is not that consistent but when she is confident she can let it rip.
Tina Maze (SLO): 2 wins on this hill. Very up and down from year to year. From all reports out of Slovenia, she is on her game so look for a big show from her. A lot of time on snow this summer but only in Europe on glaciers? Good for Soelden, maybe not so good later in the year?
Niki Hosp (AUT): Part of the famous 3-way tie in October, 2002 with Maze and Flemmen. It was her rookie year on the World Cup and I think she can regain that form. A lot of Men's team coaches were switched to the Women's side in Austria this year and I think it has helped her skiing. From all reports she is healthy again. Start number will hurt.
Denise Karbon (ITA): My favorite female GS skier with Lara Gut out of the field. I think that when Denise is on, she will win. She can get on a roll and keep it going like no other. She is traditionally strong on men's hills, as Soelden is. And if they get the surface very hard, it is even more in her favor. My pick to win.
Viktoria Rebensburg (GER): Young up and comer and I think a dark horse to win this race. I think she has a real chance of making a big splash this season in GS.

THE AMERICANS:
Lindsey Vonn: Great all around skier. Very professional. Hard working. I cannot say enough positive about Lindsey's approach to the sport and to her professional life. Her GS has improved a great deal in the last year and a half but I think the podium is asking a lot of her in GS. 7th-10th place is my guess, and I think she should be happy with that with the late ski company switch. Remember what comes with that. Every time she looked down, put her skis on, picked up her skis, walked into the ski room for HER ENTIRE LIFE, the skis said Rossignol. Now they say Head. New service man. Should it matter? No. But sometimes it does. It will be interesting to watch.

Julia Mancuso: She definitely lost her way after the magical 2006 season.
She was 2nd in the Soelden GS in 2007. The word on the street is that she is "rededicated." We'll see, but I wouldn't bet on her. Not this early in the season with only one top 5 on this hill in her career. Start number will not help.
Sarah Schleper: I hope Sarah can find her old form. She was out for a while and has now had a year to get back into the fold and get moving up the WCSL. She is 44 on the WCSL and 41 on the FIS list. Tough move from there to the top 30 if the course starts to break up.
Resi Steigler: Resi stands in 37th on the FIS list. It means she only needs to move up 7 spots to get a 2nd run. She has been out of World Cup GS for a long time and Soelden is a potentially rude welcome back. I think this is a race for Resi to get her feel back and be used to starting World Cup GS again. She can do it, but it is a stretch.
Megan McJames: Megan is an excellent young skier. Tons of talent and a technically solid skier. She really has great potential in GS. The main obstacle in Soelden is her start number. While she holds 36 on the WCSL, this is a double bummer. First of all, skiers outside the 30 are seeded by FIS points. Her FIS rank is 63. To add a little insult to that, 31-35 ranked on the WCSL are protected to starting right after 45 if ranked worse than 45 on the FIS list. This is a problem in that she did not score enough WC points to get into the 30 AND did not get good FIS point scores at Europa Cup and NorAm Cup to start earlier on the FIS list. Or, she did not get the opportunity to do so? Regardless, Megan has a tall order to get into the 30. Hopefully she finishes 29 or 30, gets a clean 2nd run and can reproduce her 14th place from last year. She is certainly a good enough skier to do it.
Jess Kelley: Healthy? Starting 55 or so? Tall order for Jess. She will need to toughen up and get it done. Simple as that.

THE CANADIANS:
Sorry, not this week. Not starting any girls in the top 30 is bad news in Soelden. Christina Lustenberger at 32 is the best number. But Marie-Michelle Gagnon at 38 is their best shot at scoring points. She is their best skier and only 20 years old.

Other skiers to look for: Kathrin Hoelzl (GER), Michaela Kirchgasser (AUT) and Tessa Worley (FRA). All 3 of these girls are very strong competitors and have the mental toughness to compete on a tough hill like Soelden.

Alpine Race Consulting will be presenting at Mt. Hood Community College and Seattle Pacific University this weekend at the PSIA-NW Fall Seminars. Men's preview tomorrow!