The Ladies go south to Zagreb

Zagreb for the girls on the 3rd and the guys on the 6th. Then the women follow that up with speed on in Haus, Austria and the guys hoof it all the way across the continent to Adelboden, SUI for the classic GS on the Chuenisbaergli, which can have different spellings than that one. Actually, it is spelled differently on different signs in town. But that is not really the subject of this blog, it should be Zagreb, and focused on the ladies’ race at that. It has been a tough season to figure out so far in slalom. We have had 4 women’s world cup slalom races and 4 different winners: Riesch, Zahrobska, Aubert and Schild.
So when I start to think about Zagreb, and look at who has won here, I have to start thinking Riesch right away. I would like to think Vonn, but that won’t happen with an injured hand. Slalom is too tough on the hand. Pole plants blocking gates, it just seems like it would be bothersome. Regardless, Zagreb is a fairly mellow hill. It rolls a bit and has some steeper pitches which are pretty short. In the past, visibility and snow conditions have played a part, at least in the men’s races. And if you put together the fact that you stay in a downtown, urban environment and get police escorts to the hill and public draw and the put 38,000 rabid Croatian fans on the hill, it can be difficult. Especially for the women, not because they are women, but because they generally do not draw that kind of crowd. I was glad to see they drew a nice crowd in Lienz last week. But I am sure the crowd in Zagreb will be much bigger, and much more enthusiastic. And they want to help Ana Jelusic and Nika Fleiss up the standings as much as possible. They are nationalistic, to say the least. When Janica was still racing, there were stories of fans pummeling the first run leader with snow and ice while she rode the chair up for her second run start. Protected only by her goggles and slalom helmet.
As I digressed, I realized I needed to go further on the different results this year and in previous years in Zagreb. There have been 3 different winners the last 3 seasons here. But 2 have won slaloms this season (Riesch and Schild). The other winner was Poutiainen in 2008. Add on to that piece of information, Christian Schwaiger, the coach of the German women, has already set a 1st run this season in Levi, and Maria won the run, and the race. So when you line up a winner on this season, with a previous winner on this hill and winning on a course set by the first run setter, who HAPPENS to be her coach…well I think I lean that way. Maria will likely win this race. All things point to her. But I think Marlies Schild skied the best last week and is coming back from injury so she should be improving her racing every week. And then who? I go with Aubert. And watch for all the French girls who seem to be on a roll!
So, my podium looks like: Maria Riesch, Marlies Schild, Sandrine Aubert.
CANADIANS:
Anna Goodman has had a great season so far and I think she will bounce back from her first run DNF last week in Lienz. She starts 20 and a few more results and she could be in the draw! I thought that Brigitte Acton was solid and needs to put a few races together to really build some confidence. With the other starters not really showing much so far this season, I am reluctant to say anything. I think Marie-Michele Gagnon is an excellent skier but hasn’t really made her mark on the World Cup yet and I think she is a better GS threat than in Slalom.

AMERICANS:
Lindsey starts 3, which is great. But with her injury I just cannot see her competing for a podium. I will be the first one to cheer tomorrow morning when I check results, but I just don’t see it right now. Hailey Duke is starting 35 and I keep waiting for something a little more out of her. It seems she has a bit of the Jitloff bug. “Now, I’ve made it…” after a good year last year and a World Championship appearance, it has sort of dropped off. There have been some injuries but you have to wonder about some complacency. I am not ripping on her or Jitloff personally. It is a very real psychological phenomenon. And every cliché is based in reality. And “the sophomore slump” is a cliché. So add 1+1 and figure it out. Sterling Grant, a total enigma to me. I do not know her very well but I have watched her ski a bunch of times and I can only assume that she has not performed on race day at “The Show.” She is a much better slalom skier than her World Cup results show.
Sarah Schleper has been phenomenal since the Nor Ams at Loveland. Almost like the Aspen disappointment made her evaluate her place, and her motivation. Like she came out of that race re-dedicated to making herself into a new and better version of what she once was. Having a child changes people. I have a son and it changed me dramatically. I know it changed my wife even more. I cannot imagine what it does to a female athlete, especially in a risk-based sport. Sarah has probably had to grapple with emotions that no male athlete will ever have to deal with. Be proud that Sarah is one of ours, and that she is making herself and all of us proud.

And Kaylin, I did not leave you out but I got on a roll about Sarah. Move up, make the flip, and win the second run….simple.
Good luck ladies!

Aspen Women's GS- Preview

It is Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. Those of us on the road this holiday will give thanks and eat turkey with our teammates and friends rather than our families. It has been like this most years of my coaching career, and this year is no different. It is one of the things that make our teammates like family. Why it becomes so hard to let go of them and of the sport as we get older. The bonds that are created by having holidays together are tight.
Tomorrow, the men will take their second training run in Lake Louise and the women will travel to Aspen and settle into their housing, and get ready for free skiing on the race hill on Friday. According to Aspen Valley Ski Club Director, Jeff Kai, the hill is in great shape with man-made snow and injection they did last night. From all that he has said it sounds like the conditions will be excellent
The race hill in Aspen is officially called Lower Ruthie's by the FIS and it has a few places to watch carefully. The first is the bottom of Spring Pitch, which is basically the last bit of Aztec. The ladies need to charge down Spring Pitch and nail the last few turns on the pitch to carry speed as the course bends to the left onto Summer Road. This area is make or break. Someone who can take a little more risk earlier on the pitch will be able to carry more speed across the road as long as she can execute the turns cleanly as the bottom of the pitch approaches and the compression there does not cause a problem. The decision making here along with execution can define their run. After the road the girls will enter Strawpile. As you can tell by the name, this section has large rolls and terrain features. Side-hills, drop-offs. The good terrain skier with some guts will do best through here. After Strawpile things are pretty mellow to the finish. All of this action with injected snow will cause some errors to be made. Both in judgement and execution. The decisions made during inspection and before the start will make a mark on this race, as will the execution of these decisions.
Course Setting:
Last year, both courses were set within 2 turns of minimum which tells me the courses can be set open. Plenty of room between gates. A lot of carving and a lot of fun.
The first run will be set by Guenther Obkircher(AUT). Guenther is a long-time men's coach on all different levels in the Austrian system. From Development to World Cup and back down. Now he is with the Austrian Tech girls. Zettel, Schild, Kirchgasser and Brem are his best. Liz Goergl is not in his group but was 3rd in Aspen last year. Watching him set here in Vail all week, it looks like he will set 26-28 meters for distance most of the time and open it up a bit at the finish. His girls have been skiing well all week. He will try to stick to his own identity as a course setter so his team sees things that they are used to seeing. I would expect them all to have good first runs.
The second run is set by Stefano Costazza(ITA). The same will go for him and will help his athletes. Costazza set in La Molina, Spain last season and set 44 turns, within 4 of minimum. The run he set was won by Zettel, Moelgg was 2nd and Maria Pietilae-Holmner was 3rd. For Americans, Julia was 12th. We watched the La Molina race last year on TV in our apartments near Innsbruck, AUT, the weather was very funky. Warm and very windy with injected snow that was failing under the strength of Mother Nature. This does not discount the results, they are as real as any others. But it does ask the question as to the relevance of the course setter with regard to results in that type of situation.

THE SKIERS:

Tanja Poutiainen(FIN)- I saw Tanja a bit this week and I did get to watch her ski. As I mentioned earlier in the week she was very detail oriented and solid. I watched her free skiing and saw she was making strong transitions and working hard on clean initiations. Great stuff from a great skier. She was happy, relaxed and polishing her approach. She basically said, "One race at a time..." Sounds like any professional athlete anywhere who has been winning. She was second in Aspen last year and will easily be in the mix this week.
Kathrin Zettel(AUT)- She had the flu during the Levi slalom and could not race. She then had to fly here after recovery. The Austrians seem to be keeping her on low volume and few repeat days. They seem concerned with her health and hydration. I will go on a limb and say that she will be less likely to be a factor in Aspen. Recent illness, air travel, jet lag, low volume, the dehydration that flu brings on? It will be tough for her to get it done.
Tina Maze(SLO)- Tina looked very strong and clean in all of her runs in Vail this week. I have been impressed with her skiing,speed and consistency. I would not doubt if she competed for a podium in Aspen.
Denise Karbon(ITA)- I think she is the best female GS skier in the world. I will bet on her every time. She was absolutely crushing the pitch here in Vail today which ends with a bend to the left like in Aspen. She won the first run in Aspen last year and had a problem on the 2nd run, finishing 15th. The only negative for her in Aspen is there might not be enough pitch for her over the duration of the hill.
Kati Hoelzl(GER)- She was fastest here yesterday in some timed runs with girls present from Italy, France and the USA. No other top 7 girls were present for the timed runs. She is a good skier and can compete. The Germans have also been in Vail for about a week.
Tessa Worley(FRA)- She won in Aspen last year, she is a fighter and she seems to be skiing pretty well. Repeat wins are hard to come by on the World Cup but I do think she can be competitive.
Michaela Kirchgasser(AUT)- She has been coming on in GS, her coach is setting, she has seemed very happy and relaxed around Vail all week. I don't know how much pure speed she has in GS, but she is an excellent skier and has an advantage with the course setting. They have been here since the 17th. Look for her in the top 10 by the end of the day on Saturday.

AMERICANS:

Lindsey Vonn- Last year, Lindsey had her best GS result finishing 4th in Aspen. She was 7th after the first run with a mediocre start number. Now she starts 8-15 and is skiing GS better than ever. She is another month on her new equipment since Soelden. She has had unbeatable training in Vail since returning from Levi. She has had her own lane at times, full length, prime real estate. Today she looked very strong and was going on a tight line while making clean turns. I would expect an excellent performance from her. She also seems to be used to her new skis and very happy with the whole equipment package.

Julia Mancuso- At his point I can only hope she does well. The few runs I saw were not exceptionally fast.

Megan McJames- As I have said in previous blogs, I love the way Megan skis. She makes a very nice transition and clean initiation as long as she has time to do so. I think the course sets in Aspen will give her the time. I also think that Colorado snow and Park City snow are very similar. She grew up on this stuff and it does help. So will the home crowd. I am very high on Megan's chances.

Sarah Schleper- Home snow and she was 13th last year in Aspen. Pretty good stuff and a chance to repeat that type of performance.

Jess Kelley- Jess is a great technical skier who needs to find her groove. To get herself in gear and just get after it. She is highly trained after years on the ski team and numbers of years on the World Cup, she needs to put aside any drama and just go.

Stacey Cook- My personal favorite as I was her coach at Mammoth before I moved on to the ski team. Stacey even lived at our house and remains one of my wife's best friends. Stace won the time trial the ski team held for selection. She has scored World Cup points in GS in her career so it is not a shock she won the spot. But her rank is 113 on the FIS list which means she will start near the back. The circumstance cannot drive her performance, she needs to take chances and make it work from back there. She is playing with house money and needs to ski like it.

CANADIANS:

Simard will sneak into the top 30 on the start list so she has a chance. Gagnon is a great young skier with a good number but unless she is able to make major changes from Soelden, I don't think anything earth shattering is going to happen.

DARK HORSES:
Look for Viktoria Rebensburg(GER) and Stefanie Koehle(AUT). I just think they are both excellent skiers and competitors and will eventually break through.

The Podium? This one seems tougher. But I think I am going with Karbon for the win, Poutiainen 2nd and Vonn 3rd. Her first World Cup GS podium.

Lake Louise and Aspen... here we come!

We are 5 days from the GS free ski on the race hill in Aspen for the girls. The boys arrive in Lake Louise on Tuesday. A lot is about to happen here in the ski racing world in North America.
World Cup DH staff and skiers are making their way to Lake Louise from their training venues in order to arrive there before the first Team Captain's Meeting on Tuesday evening. The World Cup DH boys are headed to Lake Louise Tuesday to start the first training run on Wednesday. Three training runs are scheduled for Lake Louise, primarily because it is early season and everyone can use a few extra DH runs to figure out skis and other equipment issues. Not to mention figure out the line on the downhill. The boys and staff will settle in quickly on Tuesday afternoon, do some recovery work and start watching video almost immediately. Putting together archived video of previous races so the guys can see how they executed in the past and who executed better and what they might have done differently. Also, serious discussion happens, lead by the most experienced downhillers to help educate the younger guys and to analyze with the coaches what led to certain difficulties the previous season. The athletes at that level are the best analysts of their problems and successes. Of why results or lack of them happened. Along with the extra pairs of eyes the coaches provide, it ends up being a collaborative experience. As long as everyone is as objective as possible and set ego and feelings aside.
Lake Louise is considered a downhiller's downhill. Very fast in spots, a lot of tucking and tuck turns and the technical sections are still at high speed. Guts has it's role here for sure. But there are a few little glitches along the way that can cause consternation. The Fishnet and C turns always pack a little G force and the Gunbarrel coming off a steep pitch to a flat, narrow section has a nice compression. The trail then bends to the left and crosses under the chair before making the turn to the right in Claire's Corner. Then it rolls and glides to the finish. But Claire's can be tricky and guys can blow the race there by going in too straight, or even worse, applying left ski pressure too late. As one of my favorite cliches goes, "You can't win it here, but you definitely can lose it."
There are 3 training runs in Lake Louise which seems like a ton of time to figure things out. But teams work hard to get the line right on day one. At least as close to perfect as possible to try to adjust for the next day. With 7 cameras on the hill during training, the US Ski Team staff will be knitting video camera views together to watch full runs of each athlete as well as everyone else who was top 3 in any split. Or run winners. So after everyone gets back to the hotel, eats lunch (late) and does their dryland and recovery, they sit down to another hour or 2 of video to make a plan for the next day's attempt.
One of the cooler things about Lake Louise is that the girls race on the same track the following week. The FIS and race organizer do some things to change it. They attempt to soften the surface (usually without success) and they set some different gates that control speed in different places on the hill. Maybe they lower the start a little. But it is essentially the same track and Lake Louise is the only place that happens in DH.
I am in Colorado and most of the women's teams are here in Vail. They are here getting ready for the tech starts in Aspen. We had the good fortune to share the hill with Lindsey Vonn, Tanja Poutiainen(FIN), Tina Maze(FIN), Michaela Kirchgasser(AUT) and Kathrin Zettel(AUT) today among other solid World Cuppers. Lindsey had her own space and was fine tuning for the Aspen GS. Maybe testing some skis, ramp angles or mounting points.
Tina trained GS next to us with Sanni Leinonen(FIN), Ana Drev(SLO) and a few others. Tine Maze looked great on the hill. I have seen her ski a lot over the last 8 years and she looked very strong today. Physically as well as technically.
Kirchgasser and Zettel trained slalom and were very solid and relaxed. If they take that kind of skiing into the slalom at Aspen, they will be highly competitive.
And last, Tanja Poutiainen was free skiing on both sets of equipment.
And I want to make a few points about what I saw.
1. She was definitely trying to feel out some canting and ramp issues. The good thing about her is that her service guy speaks German and she speaks Finnish, so they speak English to each other. Much easier for me to understand.
2. When she skied GS she skied in her GS stuff. GS boots, GS poles, GS helmet, etc. When she skied on slalom skis it was the same deal. Slalom boots, slalom helmet, slalom poles. Attention to detail, over and over and over again.
3. She is in a great mood after her good start early but is keeping it all in perspective. Saying things like: "It's a long season." " I only think about the next race." All one day at a time type stuff. Watch out, she is skiing very well, making a very strong weight transfer when free skiing to create bend in the new turning ski with total control of the where and when.
So here we are, 3 days from the first training run of the first DH of the season and 6 days from the Aspen GS. A lot going on to get ready. I am sure the equipment adjustment game is on. The high and dry Colorado snow, even when injected, is totally different from the it's European cousin. Much drier, more easily carvable, better grip. So edges can be less aggressive, cants can be adjusted, ramp angles can change, or even pick a different pair of skis. To adjust for the .01 that gets you the win or into the flip.
More coming! Ladies' Aspen preview should be up by Thursday and the Lake Louise DH should get a preview after training run 2 or 3. Thanks for reading!

Levi Women's re-cap and Men's bib draw

I spent most of my day flying and driving to Vail today to get ready for our Mission Ridge Ski Team fall camp. I can't wait to get out on the hill Ski Club Vail has prepared. I have heard nothing but outstanding reports and look forward to getting a lot accomplished here.
I got a chance to watch the women's race today on Universal Sports when I got here. The video was a little glitchy but I got the gist of it. First of all, congratulations to Maria, Lindsey and Tanja! As well as Susanne Riesch and Michaela Kirschgasser. That's the top 5 and they all did a great job. Lindsey let me down a little because I picked her to win, but losing by .08 is well, .08. I thought she had it won when Maria had lost ground by the end of the top flat but Maria held it together when she could have lost it. Congrats to Lindsey, a great start to the season. Start racking up those points in slalom and GS and dominate the speed stuff again and the big globe will be yours. Great job! And Tanja as well, right in the mix in the first 2 tech starts. Susanne continues to ski well in Levi and I am so glad to see Michi Kirchgasser start to put her slalom back together. She has been struggling with it for a while but it looks to be back in order. Very cool.
Most impressive stuff:
Nina Loeseth(NOR) coming from 46th start position to 20th place. But even more impressive was younger sister Mona starting 51 and moving up to 14.
The Canadian girls! All 3 got in the flip and finished back to back to back in 14-16-17 (there was a tie for 14th). Nice job ladies.
A solid day for Hailey Duke in 21st place, well done.
And most of all, the 2 girls coming out of the 70s to get second runs. Kristiina Rove(FIN) born in 1990, made the flip and got a second run. She finished last in the 30 but had a smile in the finish area so big that lit the place up! Congrats to her and hopefully it is the beginning of more to come. And to Kaylin Richardson for making a second run happen from start number 70 to finish 23. I really did not think she would get it done and she did, with room to spare. Fantastic.
Now for a not so positive. Anja Paerson can look at this race and think it was an error and keep banging away at slalom. But I see slow feet and the loss of the ability to recover at speed while carrying speed. The last 1/3 of the course on the second run is where that kind of stuff happens when fitness and quickness decline. Is it really just a little mistake? Or is it symptomatic of something more? Is she on the decline, especially in slalom?

MEN'S BIB DRAW

What number a guy draws in the top 7 likely will not mean much with the way the surface looked for the girls up there on the Levi Black. The place looked perfect, and just as I remember it. Frosted over, Acrtic ice fog hanging over the lights. Not quite dark but definitely not light. Very hard snow that holds up extremely well. One real difference between the men and women is the men beat up the hill a bit more. They put more pressure on the skis and they cut harder into the injection. So it can be worse than what we saw today.
Manni Moelgg of Italy drew 1 but I stand by my opinion that he is better on steeper, tighter, straighter courses.
For me, Herbst at number 2 is a good draw for him as is Hargin at number 4. JB Grange drew 7 and I do not think that will cause much problem for him. I believe he will do well. The other great draw his number 9 for Mike Janyk. That will help him in confidence and therefore with his focus going into the race.
Bode at 16 is a great number for him and will have a shot of getting deep into the top 10. Head skis went 1,2 today so that looks good for Bode. Ted is in at 18 and I think the race is winnable from there. If he can stay within three-tenths after run 1, I really believe he can get it done. And remember that Lindsey won the Levi slalom with bib 18 on last year and on Rossignol. I know that sounds superstitious, but I'm just sayin'.
Others and their numbers? Watch for Mark Gini(SUI) who snuck into the top 30. He could get it done on a moderate hill. He won 2 years ago at Reiteralm which was a replacement for Levi.
Four Canadians start between 35 and 45 and will need to hammer to get into the flip.
One thing that is interesting is that there are a lot of great slalom skiers with late start numbers and are worth sticking aroung to watch. Even if they don't qualify, they will entertain with speed and agility as well as high skill.
One of my favorites is Akira Sasaki(JPN) starting 44. Sake-bomb is a cult hero in central Europe and very popular in Austria. Watch him slash his way down the hill as he tries to reclaim his spot in the top 15. Jimmy Cochran starting 46 has a fantastic chance and a great history on this hill. Tim Jitloff starting 49 is, by all accounts, skiing as fast as anyone in slalom. Watch him move into the top 30.
Home-boy Jukka Leino starts 50 and always brings the heat.Jens Byggmark, a former top 7 guy is starting 55. Watch out! He is likely to blast in there too. Thomas Fanara(FRA) starts 56 is a fast skier as is Natko Zrncic-Dim(CRO) at 57. There is a lot of speed in the back at this race. The last guy I want to mention is Stephane Tissot(FRA)starting 63. He was the best slalom skier in the world not long ago. Consecutive injuries have put him into the back but I look for him to regain his old form sooner rather than later.
Check out the race and enjoy!

Levi Women's Preview, Size Matters.

While certainly not the only ingredient for success at Levi, size has played a role in the results over the years in Levi. As has been mentioned in the previous blogs, Levi is a flat hill, with a long flat out of the start and another long one at the bottom after a steep, then moderate middle pitch.
When you put the hill profile together with the course setters, you get a recipe for carving style slalom and higher speeds. Just the pure impact of the gates at higher race speeds gives the advantage to the bigger girls. They can pound through the block with less disruption, then can carve slightly larger radius turns and are will not likely be required to be too quick on the pitches. And it just goes to common sense that they would be able to grip better on a slick surface.
Both course setters have set close to the minimum turns at other venues and both have very tall slalom skiers on their squads.
The result history backs this up. Last year's winner was Lindsey Vonn, 2007 was re-scheduled to Reiteralm, AUT. 2006 was won by Marlies Schild who is fairly tall as well. Prior to that, the Levi race was a women's only event in the late season with 2 races per visit. Those races were won by Kostelic, Paerson, Poutiainen and Maria Riesch. All of whom have size on their side. Last year, Maria Pietilae-Holmner was 2nd and Riesch was 3rd. The only really "small" girl with a podium on this hill is Kathrin Zettel (AUT) who is truly tiny. But I would argue is one of the best carvers of a slalom ski on the women's tour.
So does that mean that only the bigger girls have a chance? No, of course not, it is a ski race and we all know that anything can happen. Start numbers, fog, wind, snow, rain, a funky course set. The possibility of anything happening is part of the fun. "That's why they play the games" as one NFL analyst is prone to say.

FRONT RUNNERS:
Maria Riesch (GER): 3 podiums with 1 win in the last 6 starts in Levi. With good product on her feet, I think she is a contender again. Her coach sets run 1. She should get out to a good start and could hold on if the conditions are good on run 2.
And don't forget, she is the reigning World Champ in slalom.
Maria Pietilae-Hlomner (SWE): Maria was 2nd last year in Levi. I do think racing in Scandanavia will help the Swede this weekend. She is good enough and will have a top 7 start number. For her to get a win here she will need to ski a perfect race. Full speed, no mistakes, smart tactics.
Sarka Zahrobska (CZE): I think Sarka is a good slalom skier with a lot of opportunity to win this season. I just don't think it is here. She is a notoriously slow starter to the season and has had very little success in Levi.
Kathrin Zettel (AUT): As I mentioned earlier, she is a great skier. One of the best carvers of slalom turns on the women's tour. Very consistent and very quick. She truly needs to risk to overtake some of the bigger girls on this hill but she can do it.
Sandrine Aubert (FRA): Watch out for her. Very tall girl and coming off a roll at the end of last season. She won the last 2 World Cups and was leading the World Champs SL after run 1. I am sure the pressure was just too much racing at home in France but she showed her ability on a tough hill in Val d'Isere and went on after that to put up the 2 wins. I think she is primed to move into the slalom elite along with Maria Riesch, Mrs. Vonn, ET AL.
Anja Paerson (SWE): I know this is not the most popular opinion, but I just don't think she has much left in the tank. She won her first World Cup in December 1998 in Mammoth and has been going at it in 4 events pretty much ever since. 11 years is a long time on that tour, plus factor in 4 event skiing in the winter and all the days on snow in the preparation period to be ready to ski 4 events. I am not buying into her as a contender in slalom anymore. She might be able to steel herself for a push for one last Olympics, but I have been watching her fade a little at a time the last couple of seasons and slalom is usually the first to go. I will continue to count her out until she gets the job done.
Tanja Poutiainen (FIN): Never count out the home country! The Levi fans, while only about 5,000 in number, are extremely vocal. They are very loyal and proud of the home team as well as highly lubricated. They will push her to a good finish. I do think she can win and is riding high after the win in Soelden.
OTHERS TO WATCH:
Frida Hansdottir (SWE): A strong end to 2009 and racing in Scandanavia. She could get something done.
Ana Jelusic (CRO): She has a top 5 here in the past but her lack of size will work against her. It puts her in the high risk/reward category.
Therese Borssen (SWE): Again, a strong finish to the season last year and some decent results in the past at Levi. Scandanavian racing is different and there is some history for the Swedes, Norwegians and Finns getting strong results above the Arctic Circle. The snow is just different and the light is very, well...not light.
A few others to look for are Fanny Chmelar(GER), Susanne Riesch (GER) and Sanni Leinonen (FIN). The 2 German girls and very big and strong with their coach setting run 1. And Susanne had her first big World Cup breakthrough on this hill in 2006. Both Fanny and Susanne will start in the top 15. Sanni is at home and is a crowd favorite.

AMERICANS:
Lindsay Vonn: It is tremendously hard to pick a winner. There are so many variables involved as mentioned above. Plus, add that Lindsey recently switched ski companies late in the prep period. I am not sure she really knows what the skis will do. But, that being said, she is very professional and very focused in all areas and can certainly figure that out quickly. Her dedication will be on display throughout the season in 5 disciplines as she fights to retain the overall World Cup globe and earn an Olympic gold or two on the way. I do think Lindsey will defend her Levi win from last season and win this one too.
I do have one criticism however. And I do know that there are bigger things out there this season than the Levi slalom in mid-November. She had to come back to the states after Soelden to do the promo tour. I hope she got herself back to Europe early enough to fight the jet-lag.
In 2006, when Soelden was canceled, we took our team home to the USA and had training on our "private" slope in Keystone. We had injection for slalom. To shorten the story, the boys never could sleep through the night once we arrived in Levi. The jet-lag was the worst any of us had ever had. And we did not recover in time for the race. 3 of the 4 boys did not qualify while Jimmy did well, finishing 15th.
I think Lindsey got over there earlier than we did in that scenario and can find a way to overcome that issue.
As I said before, I do have confidence in her to get it done and win it again.

Resi Steigler: Resi will be racing on her 24th birthday. It is my birthday too but not my 24th! I think she has a great chance to start her comeback in slalom if her start number is decent. It is a great hill for her as she can take that full-attack style to the hill and make it cleanly to the finish.
Hailey Duke: Hailey had a great season last year. She is sitting in 28th on the current World Cup Start List in slalom which is great news for her. The only negative is that she is not 100%. She is nursing an ankle injury.
Sterling Grant: Sterling has a great opportunity with a high 30s or low 40s start number. The snow usually holds up very well in Levi so she will have a shot at getting a second run.
Kaylin Richardson and Sarah Schleper round out the American effort in Levi but with very poor start numbers, I do not expect a lot.
Julia Mancuso: As far as I know, she is not starting in Levi. No comment on that, yet.

CANADIANS:
With Anna Goodman leading the way and starting in the low to mid-20s, it will be tough for them to get a lot done. Anna had her best result at Levi last season finishing 23rd. She had a solid year last year and did her best racing toward the end of the World Cup season. At this point, I do not know who else will be racing but based on world rank I can only guess that Marie-Michelle Gagnon and Brigitte Acton will be their other starters.

The podium?
Vonn, Poutiainen, Aubert.

More to come, stay tuned!

Soelden: Women's Preview

Look on the calendar and it is 3 days away. What is going on in Soelden? What are the teams doing? How are they acting? What is happening with hill prep? And who are the girls to watch?
Soelden: The weather is iffy and all the coaches and athletes know it. The FIS is acutely aware of their situation. The forecast is for a cool night tonight and very cold tomorrow night. That is the good news. The bad news is that there is a slight warming trend into the weekend. With barely freezing temperatures at night and warm and sunny during the day. Will the hill break down? Probably. But FIS will try to get a preemptive strike against mother nature by trying to freeze the piste as hard as they can!
FIS will inject the hill, possibly twice to take advantage of the cold night on Thursday. They have already done it once and will likely do it again so there is water in the hill and near the surface on Thursday. If is gets warm on Friday, they will cancel the free ski on the race hill to try to preserve the surface. If this weather forecast holds true, the hill will break down in the afternoon of the women's race and likely re-freeze for Sunday. Leaving a very bumpy, icy surface in the morning on Sunday and a broken down, rutted, bumpy and dark 2nd run for the boys.
The athletes are tapering their training down, making some last minute ski selections if necessary, going to press conferences. Some are trying on new uniforms. The coaches are scrambling around getting boots and skis measured, suits plombed and figuring out how to get the athletes to the bib draw on time through the crazy traffic in Soelden. 20,000 fans on a glacier with only 1 way in and out? Tough traffic.
MY 7 FAVORITES:
Katrin Zettel(AUT): I think she is the favorite. She has great start position and a good draw will nail it down. She has steadily improved since October 2005. She was 5th that year, 3rd in 2007 and won last year. Same course setters as last year, which will help her cause.
Tanja Poutiainen (FIN): Very solid skier with good history on the hill and with the course setters. Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races in Soelden. The down-side? If she wins the first run, she will not win the race. Not a great leader going into run 2. I also think she misses her former coach, Michael Bont.
Andrea Fischbacher (AUT): 3rd last year. 5th in 2005. She is not that consistent but when she is confident she can let it rip.
Tina Maze (SLO): 2 wins on this hill. Very up and down from year to year. From all reports out of Slovenia, she is on her game so look for a big show from her. A lot of time on snow this summer but only in Europe on glaciers? Good for Soelden, maybe not so good later in the year?
Niki Hosp (AUT): Part of the famous 3-way tie in October, 2002 with Maze and Flemmen. It was her rookie year on the World Cup and I think she can regain that form. A lot of Men's team coaches were switched to the Women's side in Austria this year and I think it has helped her skiing. From all reports she is healthy again. Start number will hurt.
Denise Karbon (ITA): My favorite female GS skier with Lara Gut out of the field. I think that when Denise is on, she will win. She can get on a roll and keep it going like no other. She is traditionally strong on men's hills, as Soelden is. And if they get the surface very hard, it is even more in her favor. My pick to win.
Viktoria Rebensburg (GER): Young up and comer and I think a dark horse to win this race. I think she has a real chance of making a big splash this season in GS.

THE AMERICANS:
Lindsey Vonn: Great all around skier. Very professional. Hard working. I cannot say enough positive about Lindsey's approach to the sport and to her professional life. Her GS has improved a great deal in the last year and a half but I think the podium is asking a lot of her in GS. 7th-10th place is my guess, and I think she should be happy with that with the late ski company switch. Remember what comes with that. Every time she looked down, put her skis on, picked up her skis, walked into the ski room for HER ENTIRE LIFE, the skis said Rossignol. Now they say Head. New service man. Should it matter? No. But sometimes it does. It will be interesting to watch.

Julia Mancuso: She definitely lost her way after the magical 2006 season.
She was 2nd in the Soelden GS in 2007. The word on the street is that she is "rededicated." We'll see, but I wouldn't bet on her. Not this early in the season with only one top 5 on this hill in her career. Start number will not help.
Sarah Schleper: I hope Sarah can find her old form. She was out for a while and has now had a year to get back into the fold and get moving up the WCSL. She is 44 on the WCSL and 41 on the FIS list. Tough move from there to the top 30 if the course starts to break up.
Resi Steigler: Resi stands in 37th on the FIS list. It means she only needs to move up 7 spots to get a 2nd run. She has been out of World Cup GS for a long time and Soelden is a potentially rude welcome back. I think this is a race for Resi to get her feel back and be used to starting World Cup GS again. She can do it, but it is a stretch.
Megan McJames: Megan is an excellent young skier. Tons of talent and a technically solid skier. She really has great potential in GS. The main obstacle in Soelden is her start number. While she holds 36 on the WCSL, this is a double bummer. First of all, skiers outside the 30 are seeded by FIS points. Her FIS rank is 63. To add a little insult to that, 31-35 ranked on the WCSL are protected to starting right after 45 if ranked worse than 45 on the FIS list. This is a problem in that she did not score enough WC points to get into the 30 AND did not get good FIS point scores at Europa Cup and NorAm Cup to start earlier on the FIS list. Or, she did not get the opportunity to do so? Regardless, Megan has a tall order to get into the 30. Hopefully she finishes 29 or 30, gets a clean 2nd run and can reproduce her 14th place from last year. She is certainly a good enough skier to do it.
Jess Kelley: Healthy? Starting 55 or so? Tall order for Jess. She will need to toughen up and get it done. Simple as that.

THE CANADIANS:
Sorry, not this week. Not starting any girls in the top 30 is bad news in Soelden. Christina Lustenberger at 32 is the best number. But Marie-Michelle Gagnon at 38 is their best shot at scoring points. She is their best skier and only 20 years old.

Other skiers to look for: Kathrin Hoelzl (GER), Michaela Kirchgasser (AUT) and Tessa Worley (FRA). All 3 of these girls are very strong competitors and have the mental toughness to compete on a tough hill like Soelden.

Alpine Race Consulting will be presenting at Mt. Hood Community College and Seattle Pacific University this weekend at the PSIA-NW Fall Seminars. Men's preview tomorrow!