That's right, two races in North America tomorrow and I cannot wait. My Palm Pre will be on live timing all day while I am on the hill and I will watch the races as soon as possible tomorrow. I am a junkie, I can't stop watching racing and the anticipation for tomorrow is almost too much to take. Last year at this time I was trying to sleep before the race in Lake Louise and not doing very well at it. Not really nerves, more like excitement! The season is about it get into full swing.
LAKE LOUISE MEN'S DOWNHILL
The training runs were marred by weather. The 2nd run was canceled which really does not have an impact on the guys. I think they would rather only have 2 runs most of the time. But it does change things for the service guys and ski selection. They will have less information, some of which is not reliable. Both training runs were strange and inconsistent. There was softening snow on day 1 and then the residue from the 15 centimeters of snow that fell on day 2 when they went out of the gate on day 3. According to Uncle Virgil (USST Head Men's DH Coach, Chris Brigham) today's run was fluky. With some groomed snow on the track and changing light and weather. The light was good early and then went away later. The wind picked up and was gusty at times. You can look at the times all you want from today but it just can't tell you anything. And race day brings out the true competitors.
The draw might tell you something too. Walchhofer chose 16 with the first pick. Kroell grabbed 19 with pick number 2. Svindal 20, Defago 22, Cuche 18,Manny Osborne-Paradis picked 17 and Bode 21. What does that say? They do not want to start early. And Bode wants to see the other guys go because 15 was open when he selected. So in the random part of the draw, Austrians drew 4 in the first 5 starters along with Adrian Theaux(FRA). If the big boys are right about how the track will shape up, these Austrian boys will have a slow track starting early. In contrast, Sullivan drew 23, Lanning 24, Fisher 25 and Nyman 29. Again, going off of how the highest ranked guys chose, these would seem like great draws. Directly after the TV break so some hill work gets done and very close to where highly ranked guys chose.
FAVORITES:
Walchhofer(AUT)- A downhill like this has to favor him. Right in his wheelhouse. As I said before, this is a big downhiller's downhill and he is a big downhiller. A consummate pro who has excellent skiing skills. He is often derided as not being a good skier but he has been in the top 30 in the world in slalom and has scored world cup GS points numerous times. He has won slalom runs on the world cup level.
Kroell(AUT)- Another strong Austrian candidate in this race. Good glider, good skier, strong and big. He was 5th last year at Lake Louise.
Svindal(NOR)- One of my favorite skiers and people on the tour. But recovering from the leg injury it sounds like he is not quite willing to risk. His Tweets this week seem to hint that he is not 100%. 7th last year in his first DH back from his injury in Beaver Creek the previous year.
Defago(SUI)- He proved last year that he is a great downhiller winning Wengen and Kitzbuhel back to back. The 2 most legendary downhills in a 7 day period. He was 8th last year here and I would think he would not do worse that that this year.
Cuche(SUI)- Geting better with age. He won the first training run and should compete for the podium this year.
CANADIANS
The home hill and adrenaline definitely pays off. Sometimes it energizes and sometimes it pressurizes. The undisputed leader of their squad, Erik Guay, finished 10th last year in a somewhat fluky race. He did look tight and made some line decisions that were too risky. Manny Osborne-Paradis was 30th, he really should do better on this hill but again, was there unseen pressure? He might be the best glider in the world. John Kucera should have a shot at the podium. He is the World Champion in Downhill, granted on the opposite type hill. But Johnny is a great skier and can get it done for the home fans. Robbie Dixon came off the Nor Am circuit to finish 24th last year starting 60th. Dixon starts 7th, he should score. Jan Hudec is big, strong and fast but is coming off yet another injury. And Louis-Pierre Helie has been skiing well in the training runs. He starts 60. Tyler Nella starts 64 in his 2nd World Cup. He was 51st in Wengen in his only other appearance. I watched Tyler improve dramatically through the week in Wengen. He is a strong skier and I would not be entirely surprised if he snuck into the back end of the points.
AMERICANS
BODE MILLER- Probably the best chance we have in Lake Louise. Always the competitor and always fast on that hill. If he keeps his plan together he will podium.
Bode was 16th last year after winning training runs. It was a strange day last year, funky weather and an ill-timed hold in front of him and behind him due to fog.
MARCO SULLIVAN- A true downhiller. He has worked on his GS skills diligently for the last 2 years and it really has showed. Especially in his Super-g. With a little luck last season, he would have had a much more productive DH season as well. Marco was
23rd last year in a dense fog.
TJ LANNING- Last year, TJ charged from the back to finish 9th in stormy and foggy conditions. He showed his strength both physically and mentally. Finally announcing his big time arrival on the FIS World Cup. He has a great number at 24.
ERIK FISHER-Fish came on last season after the big day in Val Gardena. He followed that show up with 11th at Kitzbuhel. The kid has it for sure and I saw him last week skiing much improved GS. I see Fish finishing in the top 15. He also has a great number at 25.
STEVEN NYMAN- Believe in Steven! I do. He goes 29th.
SCOTT MACARTNEY- Mac is back again this year. The horrific crash in Kitzbuhel cut short a fantastic season and his knee injury in Wengen cut-off his comeback. He was doing great when he got hurt. Hopefully he can get this comeback underway here tomorrow. Mac starts 35.
JEREMY TRANSUE- We know him as "Worm" and that he will be in this blog for the rest of the season. Worm has battled injuries his whole career but has great natural talent and might be as good at gliding as Manny Osborne-Paradis. Worm wears 57 tomorrow.
ANDREW WEIBRECHT- "Warhorse" or "Horse" or "Warbird" (he'll answer to any of them) is a fantastic talent and was on his way to a top 20 finish in Lake Louise last year when he inexplicably almost fell over while on a straight, flat glide section only 20 seconds from the finish. He starts 64.
TRAVIS GANONG- "Traw" is starting 71 and in his first World Cup. He was 13th today coming out of the back in training. It would be unlikely for him to score a point tomorrow but it sure would be exciting for all involved.
DARK HORSES/OTHERS TO WATCH
Hans Olsson(SWE) has a great history on this hill and is a big guy with great gliding skills. He starts 11. Werner Heel and Christoph Innerhofer of Italy will do well, they always do. Heel starts 9 and Inner starts 12. Innerhofer was 6th last year. Carlo Janka(SUI) is a great skier and starts 15. Janka was 2nd last year at Lake Louise. And Andrej Jerman(SLO) is starting 27th. He has won World Cup Downhills and is a strong glider too. "Jerry" could pop into the top 5.
THE PODIUM: Miller, Walchhofer, Cuche.
ASPEN WOMEN'S GIANT SLALOM
I did most of the writing on this one the other night. But with the start numbers out it seems there is more to say.
I spoke with Stacey Cook who will start 56 tomorrow. They had their free ski today on the race hill and her reaction was clear. "It is really, really hard." It was injected on Tuesday, skied on today, it will be raced on tomorrow. She also said, "I don't have to worry about the course deteriorating."
That being said, let's go inside the numbers.
Maria Pietilae-Holmner(SWE) drew 1. Hoelzl(GER)2. Goergl(AUT)3. Poutiainen(FIN)4. Zettel(AUT)5. Maze(SLO)6. Karbon(ITA) 7. Our friend Lindsey Vonn drew 9, which is great. Little grooves and bouncing chatters can happen on that hard injection and 9 is a great place to start. Julia Mancuso is 18, Megan McJames 30, Sarah Schleper 35, Leanne Smith 41, Stacey Cook 56. Canadians Gagnon and Janyk start 29 and 54 respectively. With McJames sneaking into the top 30, I really like her chances. As I said before, I like the way she skis, she needs to get the job done in Aspen. I think she will.
One last mention that needs to be made. Sarah Jarvis(NZE) is on the start list at number 69. I used to coach Sarah at Mammoth Mountain, California when she was a J3. I was surprised to see her on the list and it might be a way to get her on the hill before the Nor Ams start in Aspen on Monday. Sarah is making a push to qualify for the New Zealand Olympic Team headed for Vancouver in February.
The other night I picked Karbon, Poutiainen and Vonn in that order and I am sticking to it.
Turn on your Universal Sports TV tomorrow or watch on www.universalsports.com. Two races in one day, the only thing better would be three.
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