Olympic Selection is Near

Olympic Selection is Near.
Sunday was the Wengen slalom for men and the Maribor slalom for women. After those races, the men will have 1 event remaining in each discipline for selection for the Olympics except in GS which is complete. The Adelboden GS has been rescheduled as a 2nd GS in Kranjska Gora, after the Games. They will contest all of their remaining events at Kitzbuhel. One downhill, one Super-G and one slalom on Sunday. Selection is on Monday, January 25th. No races will be used after that date, meaning the slalom in Schladming will not be used. The women had the slalom in Maribor yesterday and then have a downhill, super-g and GS in Cortina coming up. Again, the last of their selection events.
The Olympic Selection for the US Ski Team goes as follows:
There are 3 lines of objective criteria. If more than 3 are selected at any line of criteria, they use the best FIS point result to rank the athletes selected to that point, in the last line of criteria used. If they are still tied, then they would use World Cup points to date. The fourth line is the need to decrease the team size and then they would use the highest single World Cup placing, then World Cup points and on.
The first line of criteria is a World Cup podium. The second line is a World Cup top 10. The third line is total World Cup points. Last, the fourth selection is reserved for a discretionary choice by the staff. I will let you know that this is rarely used, but it does happen. There is usually a pretty good point at which the points drop-off and selection is often obvious. But there have been times where it has been close and the younger guy or someone coming on strong directly before the Games has gotten chosen.
TEAM USA TO THIS POINT
MEN:
DOWNHILL
As of today, January 17, 2010, the men’s DH selection is as follows: Bode Miller is selected first with a podium. Andrew Weibrecht is second on points; Sullivan third on points, Nyman is fourth on points. After that we have Fisher and Macartney who need big results in Kitzbuhel and some kind of falter by Steven or Sully to make it in.
SUPER-G
This is a bit of a surprise since our leader is Ted Ligety. Ted has a podium in Super G and will be the first selection. Miller will also be selected with a top 10. Weibrecht sits in 3rd on points and Sully sits in 4th on points. Obviously, Nyman, Fish and Macartney need to get after it a bit in Kitz to get into the mix.




GS
GS should be a done deal as there are no more GS races on the docket before selection and this one is interesting. Ted gets in with a podium. Then comes Zamansky, Ford and Jitloff in that order with VERY LOW point totals. Please notice that there is one obvious name missing from this list and I don’t know how many people are aware of this, but Mr. Miller has not scored a World Cup point this season in GS, in his historically best event. So here is where your safety net, the discretionary spot, has to be used. I know, there are guys who more or less earned it but getting more points than Bode. But the Olympics are about 3 things, Gold, Silver and Bronze and NOTHING else. You are not there to gain experience, be an Olympian, or any other reason you can think of. You are one of the best 4 of Americans in your discipline and you are there to attempt to win a medal. There is One Gold, One Silver and one Bronze. I think my point is clear. They need to put Bode in the GS. Sorry, Jit but that’s the way it should be. I would think that the team would be Ligety, Miller, Zamansky and Ford. Miller can win races and we all know it.
SL
Ligety and Cochran are leading this selection with a top 10 each and then Miller on points. At this point there is not a fourth guy with any points. Due to the rules the discretionary pick comes into play. There are a lot of choices but really not a lot of good ones. They could decide to have the guys’ race for it at Europa Cups this week but we are getting to the deadline and the Kitzbuhel slalom will be the deciding factor. They can only hope that someone identifies himself. They could also use someone already qualified for the games in another discipline like Tommy Ford.
The other thing that is going to become a nuisance for the tech group is the potential for a shrinking World Cup quota in slalom. They need someone to step up and get the job done.
KOMBI
The Kombi selection is a little different as it only has 2 objective spots and those go to Miller and Ligety. Then Weibrecht has points so I would think he has a spot. After that, I think they will either select someone out of who is already on the team or no one at all.

WOMEN:
DOWNHILL
I think Lindsey Vonn gets a spot in DH? Then we have 3 girls with top 10 finishes. They are Cook, Mancuso and McKennis. So it seems like a done deal. There is an outside shot from Chelsea Marshall, Leann Smith and Keely Kelleher but they need big results into the top 10 and have the other girls get shut out for it to happen for them. I think the book is closed on this one.

SUPER G
Ummmm, Vonn gets a spot. Then Julia with a top 10. After that, Keely, Chelsea and Alice all have points but not a lot of points. So Cookie, Leann and Kaylin Richardson could all get on the board with a strong finish and steal a slot. Cookie is the only one with a lot of World Cup experience on the hill in Cortina and I would think she will be the one to break through if anyone does. She did have two top-15 finishes here in 2008.
GS
Sarah Schleper leads the way with a top 10 finish. Lindsey has her top 10 from Soelden. Then come Julia Mancuso and Megan McJames on points. No one else has any GS points on the World Cup so it looks like a solid selection. I think that Megan is an excellent choice even if you went through the discretionary criteria. It is possible that someone could make a charge in Cortina but no one has really shown themselves.
SL
The Maribor has passed with no points scored by the American girls. Mrs. Vonn has her podium from Levi for selection, then Schlep with a top 10. Then Hailey Duke and Kaylin Richardson have some points. Not a lot of points, by the way. The discretionary word comes up again. Who would you put in there instead of Kaylin, or Hailey? Maybe Megan McJames? She won a couple NorAm slaloms recently so maybe she could do it. It would keep the team size down and save some money. But then, why get rid of Richardson? She can be your 4th Kombi athlete too. So what about Duke? While she has not done much this year, she has managed some points after a solid season last year and has struggled since her ankle injury in the fall. At this point I would go straight off the points for slalom.
KOMBI
Vonn, the world leader in this category is an obvious choice again. Then Mancuso, who has been a staple in the Kombi for all major events in recent memory. I would guess that Stacey Cook would go in Kombi and Kaylin Richardson.
There will be a little fun watching the status of selections change as the teams charge for the last available slots. Good luck everyone!

Greatest Show on Snow, the January Tour

The Greatest show on snow coming up this month!
MEN: Adelboden, Wengen, Kitzbuhel, Schladming
WOMEN: Haus, Flachau, Maribor, Cortina
Before I get going on this one I need to take care of some business. I left the US Ski Team last spring but somehow retained the title of Fantasy Football League Commissioner. And I have to congratulate and acknowledge fellow Wenatchee-ite, former employee and athlete of mine and current World Cup coach Pete Korfriatis as the champion of the US Ski Team Fantasy Football league for the 2nd straight season. It is the first repeat championship since the fabled 3-peat of 2002-2004 by yours truly. I would also like to wish the best to Anna Goodman of Canada. Another injury in a tough season for injuries.
First stop for the guys, Adelboden. The nickname should say it all, “Rattleboden.” It is the classic GS race on the World Cup. As great as Alta Badia is, and I love it there, I think Adelboden is the one. The one I would want to win if I ever skied fast enough to get the opportunity. The one that I always watched as a young racer and was amazed that they could do what they did. Tucked up the Frutigen Valley just outside of Interlaken, Switzerland, it is an amazing place. Sheer rock walls and a giant ski area. You can ski over to Lenk on the west side too. It is not far from the home of Gruyere cheese, either.
And on that note, one of the most amazing things they serve in Adelboden is cheese bread. First, a half baguette is skewered on a hot metal rod and left there for a few seconds. Then Raclette is scraped and poured into the hole in the bread. For 5 SFR it is yours and one of the best treats ever! Cheese fondue in every bite. Anyway, Adelboden has sold 37,000 tickets this year so it should be an amazing show. The most I have ever seen there is about 30,000. I have seen 10,000 people at the GS bib draw where they zip-line the boys in from a roof-top to the stage, ripping across a public square above the crowd. Watch out, it can be crazy. Half way down the hill there is a tent and a big screen. Usually about 5,000 people hang out here drinking wine and beer and schnapps. As well as eating a cheese bread or some sausage. It is just below the slalom start and often gives the home country boys a boost when they are about to bonk.
The first couple times I went there, the hill had only a t-bar. The quad they have is new only a few years ago. We would ride up between 2 fences with the race hill on one side and the crowd on the other. It felt like being in a zoo. People staring through b-net at us as we rode the t-bar. Now there is a quad so it is a little easier, although a little less familiar. But I will say this, no tech race is more impressive than Adelboden. The bottom pitch is insanely steep, with a road 3 gates above the finish. And when all the speed builds up into the compression and you hit the road, anything can happen. Rahlves’ crash there is the most violent crash that ever happened in a tech event. And with all of the play that crash got, Andreas Schifferer(AUT) had a very similar crash on run 1 that day and went a little above the air-bag, sliced through the net and broke a spectator’s femur. It is an intense day there.
When you drive up to the hill, there is always a feeling of anticipation, of intensity waiting to happen. And then you ride up for free ski and the hill is injected wall to wall. It drops out of the start for 5 turns of almost free fall. Then it hits a compression as the hill bends to the right. A road is there almost immediately and bounces you again, still bending right. Of course with fall-away right foot the whole way. It will stay relentlessly right footed all the way to the bottom pitch. Then it breaks to the left briefly and then re-adopts the right foot attitude and another pronounced road. Six more turns or so and then another road with a major deepening of the right foot pull. Then it flattens a little and into the slalom hill. A big break-over for a couple of turns and onto a dead-flat with some big, round rolls in it. It flattens more and starts bending to the right hard. Then breaks over again into the almost free-fall finish pitch. 1 minute and 13-15 seconds of unending intensity. Rattle-boden all the way. 30 thousand plus screaming Swiss at the bottom.
In the 7 years I spent on the World Cup, this race always amazed me with the fervor the crowd backed their boys. Their skiers are loved in Adelboden. I was there one year when Berthod and Albrecht were young. They had not done much all year and I was having my lunch at the slalom start trying to will my last athletes to stay in the top 30. When Berthod left the start, a buzz began, I looked up to the screen and he was only a couple tenths out at the first split, the noise got louder. He hit split 2 and the entire crowd understood, he was just .97 behind. They were willing him to qualify. And he did, the place exploded. The same happened on the next racer, when Dani Albrecht went. It was amazing.
At the awards there, they lift the top 3 out on a crane to the parking lot above the stadium. The year Berthod won (January 2005) and Albrecht was 2nd it was like a religious experience. I think Jimmy was like 17th? None of our other guys finished. But I stayed and watched the ceremony as I was waiting for the slalom course set anyway. And the crowd went nuts, and sung the national anthem over and over…it was a deep and moving experience. It was something that sticks with me and I hope we can someway reach that type of experience.
I will say more, that Adelboden requires a rare combination of intensity and tactics. It needs an athlete to be aggressive with their movement and body position. To be driving the switches and moving hard to be in the front of the boots, but yet to understand the tactics of the blind rolls, fall-away turns, the compressions and roads. It has it all. To put a little understanding on it, we were talking about which GS was toughest and the argument was between Alta Badia and Adelboden. I chose Adelboden. Ted looked at me and told me that he did not think Adelboden was all that tough. The next morning he hit the bottom of the first pitch and high sided himself into the red-room right in front of me. That was the year he won the GS globe. He still has not done better than 9th there ever. I think I am going to rest my case. Just recall the crash Daron Rahlves had at the bottom of Adelboden and that will tell you the level of risk there is on this hill.
Very quickly, congrats to Lindsey for her win today in the replacement race for Val d’Isere in Haus, Austria. Also to Stacey Cook and Alice McKennis for solid World Cup points!

Lindsey and The Lake

Even with an awful weekend in Aspen, Lindsey Vonn still leads the overall World Cup standings. And the rest of the girls should feel relieved they are still so close. Maria Riesch is not far behind but Zettel is already 169 points out. She is in the lead because she is by far the best Downhiller in the world and is also the best Super-g skier; even if she handed the race to Lizz Goergl in Lake Louise. Lindsey had that race won and mysteriously lost over .5 seconds on the bottom flat. And they are on the same ski brand.
Looking back at the DH races at the Lake, Lindsey was obviously the heavy favorite. She won by large margins of victory in the past and it just kept coming. The 2 wins in Lake Louise make it 8 for her just at this venue. The combination of sweeping turns, cold snow and long glide sections make it the perfect hill for her. She consistently executes the fall-away section as well or better than anyone, every time. And then keeps her head about her in the very fast Gunbarrel and even more importantly, exiting Gunbarrel. There is a camera switch there so it is difficult to see on TV sometimes. But the trail bends to the left at almost 90 degrees at that point and there is usually a little against the grain turn there and if the girls fall asleep, thinking it’s over, then they can chisel that one and begin dumping speed the rest of the way. I believe this is what happened when Lindsey lost the Super-G. She had a large lead with good speed and no mistakes coming into Gunbarrel. But there is a little bounce in her right leg in that corner, and with the very cold snow temps and sharp crystals, the friction can slow you down quickly.
As I mentioned earlier in the week, Downhill 1 was a big day for the North American contingent. The girls stacked themselves in the points. And many of them expressed sentiment that they were very happy to have another crack at it on the following day. And some of them certainly took advantage. Brydon backed it up with another podium, Britt Janyk locked down another top 10, Alice McKennis followed up her first-ever points with her first top 10. Cookie moved up to 11th, solidifying herself in the top 30 on the WCSL. Julia was 12th, and don’t get me wrong, I think Julia is still a great ski racer, but she needs these small victories to build her confidence as the calendar steams on toward Whistler. Kelly Vanderbeek was 13th and Larisa Yurkiw finished 16th for the Canadians. Leanne Smith was 23rd and Chelsea Marshall was 25th. The American girls scored 186 World Cup points on this day. That is a huge number and has to help morale as the girls bounce back from the Aspen troubles and head to Europe.
The Super-G was an interesting race. Fishnet showed how difficult it can run. If you were not sound technically there, you killed speed or just did not make it. It looked as though the FIS injected that section to save it from falling apart. No one likes that change in snow, but it happens a lot and the teams know it in advance and the girls all see it at inspection. Nonetheless, it increased the degree of difficulty. Congrats to Larisa Yukiw again for scoring in SG and to Shona Rubens. It was a nice, solid and professional run out of Britt Janyk. This week is the best she skied in years. She was in the front of the boots, driving the skis and looked physically strong in every turn. Aside from a sloppy jump at the bottom, so was Kelly Vanderbeek. My only problem with watching her is that I keep waiting for her edge to grab and slap her to the ground. She just constantly looks like she lacks control over the front of her skis. And my last mention is to Keely Kelleher. 20th place in the Super-G for her personal best World Cup finish! Congratulations Keels and build some momentum!

General comments and observations on the women’s races.
There was far too much hanging on to the turn from the entire field. Finish the turn earlier and get on to the new one, all of you! The more you hang on, the later you switch. The later you switch, the harsher the pressure. The harsher the pressure, the more you slide or grind. And, when you switch too late, you lose snow contact and we all know that is slow.
What terrain are you looking at? Almost everyone was getting bounced around like crazy, especially in the SG. Everyone needs to inspect terrain better and look for it when you are approaching it. And I am not talking about jumps and big breaks. I am talking about small rolls, ripples and bumps. These are the ones that knock you out of your tuck or just bounce your skis around.
I am amazed that the FIS allows 2 DH races at the same venue at the World Cup level. I understand it after a cancellation has happened but to do it at the opener just puts the entire field behind because you know that Lindsey Vonn is going to win if she executes. If I were a nation with a big voice like Switzerland or Austria, I would be screaming about this schedule.
Last, I want to give a big hand to Sarah Schleper. She had a tough go at Aspen, basically holding on and skiing tentatively. She blamed only herself. She went to Loveland to the NorAm on the injection and skied inconsistently on day 1 but acknowledged that she needed to get pressure on the ski higher in the turn and get off sooner. She did that on the second slalom day and got herself a podium and a nice 6.80 result losing by just .08. Good luck in Are!

Can you feel it? 2 World Cups tomorrow!

That's right, two races in North America tomorrow and I cannot wait. My Palm Pre will be on live timing all day while I am on the hill and I will watch the races as soon as possible tomorrow. I am a junkie, I can't stop watching racing and the anticipation for tomorrow is almost too much to take. Last year at this time I was trying to sleep before the race in Lake Louise and not doing very well at it. Not really nerves, more like excitement! The season is about it get into full swing.

LAKE LOUISE MEN'S DOWNHILL

The training runs were marred by weather. The 2nd run was canceled which really does not have an impact on the guys. I think they would rather only have 2 runs most of the time. But it does change things for the service guys and ski selection. They will have less information, some of which is not reliable. Both training runs were strange and inconsistent. There was softening snow on day 1 and then the residue from the 15 centimeters of snow that fell on day 2 when they went out of the gate on day 3. According to Uncle Virgil (USST Head Men's DH Coach, Chris Brigham) today's run was fluky. With some groomed snow on the track and changing light and weather. The light was good early and then went away later. The wind picked up and was gusty at times. You can look at the times all you want from today but it just can't tell you anything. And race day brings out the true competitors.
The draw might tell you something too. Walchhofer chose 16 with the first pick. Kroell grabbed 19 with pick number 2. Svindal 20, Defago 22, Cuche 18,Manny Osborne-Paradis picked 17 and Bode 21. What does that say? They do not want to start early. And Bode wants to see the other guys go because 15 was open when he selected. So in the random part of the draw, Austrians drew 4 in the first 5 starters along with Adrian Theaux(FRA). If the big boys are right about how the track will shape up, these Austrian boys will have a slow track starting early. In contrast, Sullivan drew 23, Lanning 24, Fisher 25 and Nyman 29. Again, going off of how the highest ranked guys chose, these would seem like great draws. Directly after the TV break so some hill work gets done and very close to where highly ranked guys chose.

FAVORITES:

Walchhofer(AUT)- A downhill like this has to favor him. Right in his wheelhouse. As I said before, this is a big downhiller's downhill and he is a big downhiller. A consummate pro who has excellent skiing skills. He is often derided as not being a good skier but he has been in the top 30 in the world in slalom and has scored world cup GS points numerous times. He has won slalom runs on the world cup level.
Kroell(AUT)- Another strong Austrian candidate in this race. Good glider, good skier, strong and big. He was 5th last year at Lake Louise.
Svindal(NOR)- One of my favorite skiers and people on the tour. But recovering from the leg injury it sounds like he is not quite willing to risk. His Tweets this week seem to hint that he is not 100%. 7th last year in his first DH back from his injury in Beaver Creek the previous year.
Defago(SUI)- He proved last year that he is a great downhiller winning Wengen and Kitzbuhel back to back. The 2 most legendary downhills in a 7 day period. He was 8th last year here and I would think he would not do worse that that this year.
Cuche(SUI)- Geting better with age. He won the first training run and should compete for the podium this year.

CANADIANS
The home hill and adrenaline definitely pays off. Sometimes it energizes and sometimes it pressurizes. The undisputed leader of their squad, Erik Guay, finished 10th last year in a somewhat fluky race. He did look tight and made some line decisions that were too risky. Manny Osborne-Paradis was 30th, he really should do better on this hill but again, was there unseen pressure? He might be the best glider in the world. John Kucera should have a shot at the podium. He is the World Champion in Downhill, granted on the opposite type hill. But Johnny is a great skier and can get it done for the home fans. Robbie Dixon came off the Nor Am circuit to finish 24th last year starting 60th. Dixon starts 7th, he should score. Jan Hudec is big, strong and fast but is coming off yet another injury. And Louis-Pierre Helie has been skiing well in the training runs. He starts 60. Tyler Nella starts 64 in his 2nd World Cup. He was 51st in Wengen in his only other appearance. I watched Tyler improve dramatically through the week in Wengen. He is a strong skier and I would not be entirely surprised if he snuck into the back end of the points.

AMERICANS

BODE MILLER- Probably the best chance we have in Lake Louise. Always the competitor and always fast on that hill. If he keeps his plan together he will podium.
Bode was 16th last year after winning training runs. It was a strange day last year, funky weather and an ill-timed hold in front of him and behind him due to fog.
MARCO SULLIVAN- A true downhiller. He has worked on his GS skills diligently for the last 2 years and it really has showed. Especially in his Super-g. With a little luck last season, he would have had a much more productive DH season as well. Marco was
23rd last year in a dense fog.
TJ LANNING- Last year, TJ charged from the back to finish 9th in stormy and foggy conditions. He showed his strength both physically and mentally. Finally announcing his big time arrival on the FIS World Cup. He has a great number at 24.
ERIK FISHER-Fish came on last season after the big day in Val Gardena. He followed that show up with 11th at Kitzbuhel. The kid has it for sure and I saw him last week skiing much improved GS. I see Fish finishing in the top 15. He also has a great number at 25.
STEVEN NYMAN- Believe in Steven! I do. He goes 29th.
SCOTT MACARTNEY- Mac is back again this year. The horrific crash in Kitzbuhel cut short a fantastic season and his knee injury in Wengen cut-off his comeback. He was doing great when he got hurt. Hopefully he can get this comeback underway here tomorrow. Mac starts 35.
JEREMY TRANSUE- We know him as "Worm" and that he will be in this blog for the rest of the season. Worm has battled injuries his whole career but has great natural talent and might be as good at gliding as Manny Osborne-Paradis. Worm wears 57 tomorrow.
ANDREW WEIBRECHT- "Warhorse" or "Horse" or "Warbird" (he'll answer to any of them) is a fantastic talent and was on his way to a top 20 finish in Lake Louise last year when he inexplicably almost fell over while on a straight, flat glide section only 20 seconds from the finish. He starts 64.
TRAVIS GANONG- "Traw" is starting 71 and in his first World Cup. He was 13th today coming out of the back in training. It would be unlikely for him to score a point tomorrow but it sure would be exciting for all involved.

DARK HORSES/OTHERS TO WATCH

Hans Olsson(SWE) has a great history on this hill and is a big guy with great gliding skills. He starts 11. Werner Heel and Christoph Innerhofer of Italy will do well, they always do. Heel starts 9 and Inner starts 12. Innerhofer was 6th last year. Carlo Janka(SUI) is a great skier and starts 15. Janka was 2nd last year at Lake Louise. And Andrej Jerman(SLO) is starting 27th. He has won World Cup Downhills and is a strong glider too. "Jerry" could pop into the top 5.

THE PODIUM: Miller, Walchhofer, Cuche.

ASPEN WOMEN'S GIANT SLALOM

I did most of the writing on this one the other night. But with the start numbers out it seems there is more to say.
I spoke with Stacey Cook who will start 56 tomorrow. They had their free ski today on the race hill and her reaction was clear. "It is really, really hard." It was injected on Tuesday, skied on today, it will be raced on tomorrow. She also said, "I don't have to worry about the course deteriorating."
That being said, let's go inside the numbers.
Maria Pietilae-Holmner(SWE) drew 1. Hoelzl(GER)2. Goergl(AUT)3. Poutiainen(FIN)4. Zettel(AUT)5. Maze(SLO)6. Karbon(ITA) 7. Our friend Lindsey Vonn drew 9, which is great. Little grooves and bouncing chatters can happen on that hard injection and 9 is a great place to start. Julia Mancuso is 18, Megan McJames 30, Sarah Schleper 35, Leanne Smith 41, Stacey Cook 56. Canadians Gagnon and Janyk start 29 and 54 respectively. With McJames sneaking into the top 30, I really like her chances. As I said before, I like the way she skis, she needs to get the job done in Aspen. I think she will.
One last mention that needs to be made. Sarah Jarvis(NZE) is on the start list at number 69. I used to coach Sarah at Mammoth Mountain, California when she was a J3. I was surprised to see her on the list and it might be a way to get her on the hill before the Nor Ams start in Aspen on Monday. Sarah is making a push to qualify for the New Zealand Olympic Team headed for Vancouver in February.
The other night I picked Karbon, Poutiainen and Vonn in that order and I am sticking to it.
Turn on your Universal Sports TV tomorrow or watch on www.universalsports.com. Two races in one day, the only thing better would be three.

Aspen Women's GS- Preview

It is Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. Those of us on the road this holiday will give thanks and eat turkey with our teammates and friends rather than our families. It has been like this most years of my coaching career, and this year is no different. It is one of the things that make our teammates like family. Why it becomes so hard to let go of them and of the sport as we get older. The bonds that are created by having holidays together are tight.
Tomorrow, the men will take their second training run in Lake Louise and the women will travel to Aspen and settle into their housing, and get ready for free skiing on the race hill on Friday. According to Aspen Valley Ski Club Director, Jeff Kai, the hill is in great shape with man-made snow and injection they did last night. From all that he has said it sounds like the conditions will be excellent
The race hill in Aspen is officially called Lower Ruthie's by the FIS and it has a few places to watch carefully. The first is the bottom of Spring Pitch, which is basically the last bit of Aztec. The ladies need to charge down Spring Pitch and nail the last few turns on the pitch to carry speed as the course bends to the left onto Summer Road. This area is make or break. Someone who can take a little more risk earlier on the pitch will be able to carry more speed across the road as long as she can execute the turns cleanly as the bottom of the pitch approaches and the compression there does not cause a problem. The decision making here along with execution can define their run. After the road the girls will enter Strawpile. As you can tell by the name, this section has large rolls and terrain features. Side-hills, drop-offs. The good terrain skier with some guts will do best through here. After Strawpile things are pretty mellow to the finish. All of this action with injected snow will cause some errors to be made. Both in judgement and execution. The decisions made during inspection and before the start will make a mark on this race, as will the execution of these decisions.
Course Setting:
Last year, both courses were set within 2 turns of minimum which tells me the courses can be set open. Plenty of room between gates. A lot of carving and a lot of fun.
The first run will be set by Guenther Obkircher(AUT). Guenther is a long-time men's coach on all different levels in the Austrian system. From Development to World Cup and back down. Now he is with the Austrian Tech girls. Zettel, Schild, Kirchgasser and Brem are his best. Liz Goergl is not in his group but was 3rd in Aspen last year. Watching him set here in Vail all week, it looks like he will set 26-28 meters for distance most of the time and open it up a bit at the finish. His girls have been skiing well all week. He will try to stick to his own identity as a course setter so his team sees things that they are used to seeing. I would expect them all to have good first runs.
The second run is set by Stefano Costazza(ITA). The same will go for him and will help his athletes. Costazza set in La Molina, Spain last season and set 44 turns, within 4 of minimum. The run he set was won by Zettel, Moelgg was 2nd and Maria Pietilae-Holmner was 3rd. For Americans, Julia was 12th. We watched the La Molina race last year on TV in our apartments near Innsbruck, AUT, the weather was very funky. Warm and very windy with injected snow that was failing under the strength of Mother Nature. This does not discount the results, they are as real as any others. But it does ask the question as to the relevance of the course setter with regard to results in that type of situation.

THE SKIERS:

Tanja Poutiainen(FIN)- I saw Tanja a bit this week and I did get to watch her ski. As I mentioned earlier in the week she was very detail oriented and solid. I watched her free skiing and saw she was making strong transitions and working hard on clean initiations. Great stuff from a great skier. She was happy, relaxed and polishing her approach. She basically said, "One race at a time..." Sounds like any professional athlete anywhere who has been winning. She was second in Aspen last year and will easily be in the mix this week.
Kathrin Zettel(AUT)- She had the flu during the Levi slalom and could not race. She then had to fly here after recovery. The Austrians seem to be keeping her on low volume and few repeat days. They seem concerned with her health and hydration. I will go on a limb and say that she will be less likely to be a factor in Aspen. Recent illness, air travel, jet lag, low volume, the dehydration that flu brings on? It will be tough for her to get it done.
Tina Maze(SLO)- Tina looked very strong and clean in all of her runs in Vail this week. I have been impressed with her skiing,speed and consistency. I would not doubt if she competed for a podium in Aspen.
Denise Karbon(ITA)- I think she is the best female GS skier in the world. I will bet on her every time. She was absolutely crushing the pitch here in Vail today which ends with a bend to the left like in Aspen. She won the first run in Aspen last year and had a problem on the 2nd run, finishing 15th. The only negative for her in Aspen is there might not be enough pitch for her over the duration of the hill.
Kati Hoelzl(GER)- She was fastest here yesterday in some timed runs with girls present from Italy, France and the USA. No other top 7 girls were present for the timed runs. She is a good skier and can compete. The Germans have also been in Vail for about a week.
Tessa Worley(FRA)- She won in Aspen last year, she is a fighter and she seems to be skiing pretty well. Repeat wins are hard to come by on the World Cup but I do think she can be competitive.
Michaela Kirchgasser(AUT)- She has been coming on in GS, her coach is setting, she has seemed very happy and relaxed around Vail all week. I don't know how much pure speed she has in GS, but she is an excellent skier and has an advantage with the course setting. They have been here since the 17th. Look for her in the top 10 by the end of the day on Saturday.

AMERICANS:

Lindsey Vonn- Last year, Lindsey had her best GS result finishing 4th in Aspen. She was 7th after the first run with a mediocre start number. Now she starts 8-15 and is skiing GS better than ever. She is another month on her new equipment since Soelden. She has had unbeatable training in Vail since returning from Levi. She has had her own lane at times, full length, prime real estate. Today she looked very strong and was going on a tight line while making clean turns. I would expect an excellent performance from her. She also seems to be used to her new skis and very happy with the whole equipment package.

Julia Mancuso- At his point I can only hope she does well. The few runs I saw were not exceptionally fast.

Megan McJames- As I have said in previous blogs, I love the way Megan skis. She makes a very nice transition and clean initiation as long as she has time to do so. I think the course sets in Aspen will give her the time. I also think that Colorado snow and Park City snow are very similar. She grew up on this stuff and it does help. So will the home crowd. I am very high on Megan's chances.

Sarah Schleper- Home snow and she was 13th last year in Aspen. Pretty good stuff and a chance to repeat that type of performance.

Jess Kelley- Jess is a great technical skier who needs to find her groove. To get herself in gear and just get after it. She is highly trained after years on the ski team and numbers of years on the World Cup, she needs to put aside any drama and just go.

Stacey Cook- My personal favorite as I was her coach at Mammoth before I moved on to the ski team. Stacey even lived at our house and remains one of my wife's best friends. Stace won the time trial the ski team held for selection. She has scored World Cup points in GS in her career so it is not a shock she won the spot. But her rank is 113 on the FIS list which means she will start near the back. The circumstance cannot drive her performance, she needs to take chances and make it work from back there. She is playing with house money and needs to ski like it.

CANADIANS:

Simard will sneak into the top 30 on the start list so she has a chance. Gagnon is a great young skier with a good number but unless she is able to make major changes from Soelden, I don't think anything earth shattering is going to happen.

DARK HORSES:
Look for Viktoria Rebensburg(GER) and Stefanie Koehle(AUT). I just think they are both excellent skiers and competitors and will eventually break through.

The Podium? This one seems tougher. But I think I am going with Karbon for the win, Poutiainen 2nd and Vonn 3rd. Her first World Cup GS podium.