Men in Levi, What was that?

Every once in a while you get one of those races that just does not turn out well. Maybe it's the snow, the course set, poor light and shadows, bad tactics by the athletes, bad advice from coaches? All or any of those things can happen. Sometimes it just doesn't look great as a product on TV and maybe the smartest guys made the podium today and not the purely fastest guys?
First, I have to address course setting. And I was not standing there on the hill so I do not know for sure, but the turn totals looked high and the second run was a little out of the range for this hill to run well. Christian Hoeflehner(AUT) set and his guy won so it is all ok there. But he lost 2 guys of his own in a section that took out a bunch of guys. Maybe that was the plan? The hill deemed too easy for the men so he set some tricky rhythm changes? I don't know the plan but the Austrians usually have one. But in my mind, that hill runs best in the range from 57 to 61 turns, not 65. You can set it turny and with some room to carve and you get very close, fast and fun racing. Instead, it turned into a war of attrition. To me it looked too fast entering the pitch and for a turn or two after the break and then turned them a bit too much, too late on the pitch with not enough distance to recover if necessary. Lizeroux, Grange, Ligety, Cousineau, Myhrer and many more had major problems in the same section. They were a little late with the pressure there, like Hirscher and Matt, then trapped in the very aggressive snow in the already late groove, and were done.
But enough of that. When you get the information or see it on TV at the start, change your tactics. The run 1 leaders all get to see plenty of guys make mistakes. Get on the radio and call your coach in the area, or listen to what he is already saying, or just change what you want to do based on what you are seeing.
Herbst just skied within himself, used his lead over the people who had gone before. He put himself in the lead and let the others try to catch him. Kostelic did the same thing. Very smart, and then executed well, and finished 1-2.

I want to write about Mattias Hargin(SWE). He has only one gear, all out. And he paid a little in the section in question too. It will be interesting to see if he learns over time when he needs to give away a little line and make some good turns to get through a tricky section. Usually that takes more experience in the top 7 to establish that kind of confidence. The confidence that your speed is high enough to win as it is. And then usually it takes that confidence to recognize the issue, but then also the confidence to actually do it in the heat of a slalom run. Tough stuff. He still turned in a great performance and should be very happy with the outcome.
Some other things I saw.
Jimmy Cochran(USA)- I was pretty happy to see him ski as well as he did. I think he skied technically better than I have even seen him recently. I hope he can fix those consistency issues a little further to make his move into the upper level once and for all.
Axel Baeck(SWE)- What can you say about him? The Swedes just seem to keep pushing new slalom guys into the show. He is the newest one and moved from 48 to 15! Good stuff.
Marc Gini(SUI)- A very strong performance from him. He started in the late 20s and finished in 10th. That type of hill is good for him, almost every time.
Lars Myhre(NOR)- He was great today. Sometimes he just has these moments of brilliance but rarely backs it up with another run or race. It will be very interesting to see if he can back it up next time.
I want to go on record to say that I jinxed the American boys. I rarely predict odd-ball wins like that. If a guy does not start in the top 7, I will rarely pick him to win. I just had one of those really good feelings about all the boys but it just didn't work out. I have done this before and should have learned my lesson. Ask Robi Kristan who tuned Bode's skis for a long time. We were in Adelboden in 2003 and riding up the tbar. I looked at him and told him "I have a good feeling about today!" He said, "Really? Awesome." We started 8 guys that day. Daron finished 22nd. Schlopy fell on run 2, 2 guys did not qualify, and 4 fell on the first run. So I should know better about my "good feelings."

Levi: The Course Setters

As I wrote recently about the Levi course, it is not difficult. And really no stress to set on regarding making minimum turns. It is only 180 meters of vertical and has a long flat at the top. Only needing 54 (-3) 51 turns to make minimum and a lot of opportunity to put in flushes on the flats, there is really no problem making "the number." In the past, setters have been up around 60 turns without really setting tight. When I was there, and the rule was 55 turns without tolerance, the sets were 61 turns on run 1 and 60 on run 2. Both were over 11.5 meters the whole way with the combinations set at 5.5 to 6 meters.In fact, the 60 turn course was closer to 12 meters the whole way. Last year, the women's courses were 59 turns and 61 turns respectively and then men were 63 and 62 turns respectively. With all that said, it looks like we will see courses in the 11 to 12 meter range for both genders.
THE COURSE SETTERS
WOMEN:
Run 1: Christian Schwaiger (GER).
Schwaiger is the German women's technical coach after spending years as the men's Great Britain tech coach. Taking care of the Baxter boys, et al. As a course setter, I have only seen him set in person in training venues, but he tends not to get too caught up in novelties and funky combos. As well, he has some good slalom skiers in Maria and Susanne Riesch and Fanny Chmelar. All 3 are very tall, big girls. I would assume he is going to set to their strength, which would be the slightly bigger turn. It is really good news that Christian is setting in Levi for all 3 of these girls as they all have good histories on the hill. It gives them an excellent opportunity to be competitive on run 1 and build confidence. The last SL Christian set was in Aspen last season and the run was won by Nicole Hosp (AUT). That will not happen again as she tore her ACL in Soelden and is gone for the season. She is making noise about returning in Garmisch at the FIS World Cup Finals but that statement does not make sense in so many ways.
Run 2: Phillippe Willman (FRA)
While I know very little about Phillippe's course setting skills, I have spoken to a few women's FIS World Cup coaches about him and they all feel confident he will set a nice course. His history by the numbers is that he hits the minimum turns often. However, even if he sets 13 meters the whole way in Levi, he will still likely be over the absolute minimum of 51. Again, this is all good news for the bigger girls. Higher speed, less foot speed is necessary, hit the gates harder at higher speed so "size does matter." Both setters and the hill lean toward defending Levi champ Lindsey Vonn, Maria Riesch and the other Garmisch giants and Sandrine Aubert (FRA). The last time Phillippe set was in Ofterschwang, Germany. The race was won by Aubert, his own athlete. The run was won by Alexandra Daum (AUT). Hailey Duke of Boise, Idaho was 3rd and Marie-Michelle Gagnon was also in the mix, giving the Canadian camp some hope going into Levi.
MEN:
Run 1: Manfred Widauer (GER)
Manfred is new on the scene as a course setter. He was the German assistant tech coach last year and is now the Head Coach of the German Tech group. Felix Neureuther, Stefan Kogler and maybe even Dominik Stehle look to take advantage of this fact. Kogler and Stehle both got 2nd runs last season at Levi, and given the fact that they are really the only people who have skied Manfred's sets, they have an advantage. The Germans did train with the Americans in Coronet Peak, NZ this past summer so Ted, Jimmy Cochran and company have likely run some of his stuff too. According to the USA coaches there was nothing out of the ordinary or "freaky" going on with his setting. In my own experience, the first World Cup slalom set I made was very basic. With all the distraction of people measuring and Hans and Guenther telling you what to do, you tend to default to basics on your first World Cup set. Also, with little concern with making minimum turns, I expect something solid and basic with plenty of distance. Close racing for sure.
Run 2: Christian Hoeflehner (AUT)
Now this is a guy I know a lot about. He has been with the World Cup SL guys in Austria off and on since 2002. We came into the World Cup together and spent a lot of time together those first years when team USA and the Austrians were official training partners. Our friendship did not dissolve when the teams ended the agreement nor when he was promoted to Head Slalom coach. He is responsible for the dominance of the Austrian slalom machine. Herbst, Hirscher, Pranger, Raich, Matt. Watch out for a strong run 2 push out of these guys. Historically, "Hoefi" has liked to set out past 11 meters. The turn count of 63 last year sounds like 11 meters to me. Even though Herbst and Pranger are better at tighter courses, this hill just does not run well at 10 meters and Hoefi is aware of the aesthetics of World Cup racing. It has to play well on TV. He wants the product to look good and the boys to look good on television back in Austria. Last year, Grange won the run Hoefi set, Ligety was 2nd and Bode was 3rd, just .01 behind Ted. JB won the race. Grange also won a Super-Combi slalom run set by Hoeflehner. Huh...
As an aside, I doubt much if Bode is ready for this race and there is a persistent but yet unconfirmed rumor that his knee is bothersome and he will not start in Levi.