Olympic Selection is Near

Olympic Selection is Near.
Sunday was the Wengen slalom for men and the Maribor slalom for women. After those races, the men will have 1 event remaining in each discipline for selection for the Olympics except in GS which is complete. The Adelboden GS has been rescheduled as a 2nd GS in Kranjska Gora, after the Games. They will contest all of their remaining events at Kitzbuhel. One downhill, one Super-G and one slalom on Sunday. Selection is on Monday, January 25th. No races will be used after that date, meaning the slalom in Schladming will not be used. The women had the slalom in Maribor yesterday and then have a downhill, super-g and GS in Cortina coming up. Again, the last of their selection events.
The Olympic Selection for the US Ski Team goes as follows:
There are 3 lines of objective criteria. If more than 3 are selected at any line of criteria, they use the best FIS point result to rank the athletes selected to that point, in the last line of criteria used. If they are still tied, then they would use World Cup points to date. The fourth line is the need to decrease the team size and then they would use the highest single World Cup placing, then World Cup points and on.
The first line of criteria is a World Cup podium. The second line is a World Cup top 10. The third line is total World Cup points. Last, the fourth selection is reserved for a discretionary choice by the staff. I will let you know that this is rarely used, but it does happen. There is usually a pretty good point at which the points drop-off and selection is often obvious. But there have been times where it has been close and the younger guy or someone coming on strong directly before the Games has gotten chosen.
TEAM USA TO THIS POINT
MEN:
DOWNHILL
As of today, January 17, 2010, the men’s DH selection is as follows: Bode Miller is selected first with a podium. Andrew Weibrecht is second on points; Sullivan third on points, Nyman is fourth on points. After that we have Fisher and Macartney who need big results in Kitzbuhel and some kind of falter by Steven or Sully to make it in.
SUPER-G
This is a bit of a surprise since our leader is Ted Ligety. Ted has a podium in Super G and will be the first selection. Miller will also be selected with a top 10. Weibrecht sits in 3rd on points and Sully sits in 4th on points. Obviously, Nyman, Fish and Macartney need to get after it a bit in Kitz to get into the mix.




GS
GS should be a done deal as there are no more GS races on the docket before selection and this one is interesting. Ted gets in with a podium. Then comes Zamansky, Ford and Jitloff in that order with VERY LOW point totals. Please notice that there is one obvious name missing from this list and I don’t know how many people are aware of this, but Mr. Miller has not scored a World Cup point this season in GS, in his historically best event. So here is where your safety net, the discretionary spot, has to be used. I know, there are guys who more or less earned it but getting more points than Bode. But the Olympics are about 3 things, Gold, Silver and Bronze and NOTHING else. You are not there to gain experience, be an Olympian, or any other reason you can think of. You are one of the best 4 of Americans in your discipline and you are there to attempt to win a medal. There is One Gold, One Silver and one Bronze. I think my point is clear. They need to put Bode in the GS. Sorry, Jit but that’s the way it should be. I would think that the team would be Ligety, Miller, Zamansky and Ford. Miller can win races and we all know it.
SL
Ligety and Cochran are leading this selection with a top 10 each and then Miller on points. At this point there is not a fourth guy with any points. Due to the rules the discretionary pick comes into play. There are a lot of choices but really not a lot of good ones. They could decide to have the guys’ race for it at Europa Cups this week but we are getting to the deadline and the Kitzbuhel slalom will be the deciding factor. They can only hope that someone identifies himself. They could also use someone already qualified for the games in another discipline like Tommy Ford.
The other thing that is going to become a nuisance for the tech group is the potential for a shrinking World Cup quota in slalom. They need someone to step up and get the job done.
KOMBI
The Kombi selection is a little different as it only has 2 objective spots and those go to Miller and Ligety. Then Weibrecht has points so I would think he has a spot. After that, I think they will either select someone out of who is already on the team or no one at all.

WOMEN:
DOWNHILL
I think Lindsey Vonn gets a spot in DH? Then we have 3 girls with top 10 finishes. They are Cook, Mancuso and McKennis. So it seems like a done deal. There is an outside shot from Chelsea Marshall, Leann Smith and Keely Kelleher but they need big results into the top 10 and have the other girls get shut out for it to happen for them. I think the book is closed on this one.

SUPER G
Ummmm, Vonn gets a spot. Then Julia with a top 10. After that, Keely, Chelsea and Alice all have points but not a lot of points. So Cookie, Leann and Kaylin Richardson could all get on the board with a strong finish and steal a slot. Cookie is the only one with a lot of World Cup experience on the hill in Cortina and I would think she will be the one to break through if anyone does. She did have two top-15 finishes here in 2008.
GS
Sarah Schleper leads the way with a top 10 finish. Lindsey has her top 10 from Soelden. Then come Julia Mancuso and Megan McJames on points. No one else has any GS points on the World Cup so it looks like a solid selection. I think that Megan is an excellent choice even if you went through the discretionary criteria. It is possible that someone could make a charge in Cortina but no one has really shown themselves.
SL
The Maribor has passed with no points scored by the American girls. Mrs. Vonn has her podium from Levi for selection, then Schlep with a top 10. Then Hailey Duke and Kaylin Richardson have some points. Not a lot of points, by the way. The discretionary word comes up again. Who would you put in there instead of Kaylin, or Hailey? Maybe Megan McJames? She won a couple NorAm slaloms recently so maybe she could do it. It would keep the team size down and save some money. But then, why get rid of Richardson? She can be your 4th Kombi athlete too. So what about Duke? While she has not done much this year, she has managed some points after a solid season last year and has struggled since her ankle injury in the fall. At this point I would go straight off the points for slalom.
KOMBI
Vonn, the world leader in this category is an obvious choice again. Then Mancuso, who has been a staple in the Kombi for all major events in recent memory. I would guess that Stacey Cook would go in Kombi and Kaylin Richardson.
There will be a little fun watching the status of selections change as the teams charge for the last available slots. Good luck everyone!

Levi: The Course Setters

As I wrote recently about the Levi course, it is not difficult. And really no stress to set on regarding making minimum turns. It is only 180 meters of vertical and has a long flat at the top. Only needing 54 (-3) 51 turns to make minimum and a lot of opportunity to put in flushes on the flats, there is really no problem making "the number." In the past, setters have been up around 60 turns without really setting tight. When I was there, and the rule was 55 turns without tolerance, the sets were 61 turns on run 1 and 60 on run 2. Both were over 11.5 meters the whole way with the combinations set at 5.5 to 6 meters.In fact, the 60 turn course was closer to 12 meters the whole way. Last year, the women's courses were 59 turns and 61 turns respectively and then men were 63 and 62 turns respectively. With all that said, it looks like we will see courses in the 11 to 12 meter range for both genders.
THE COURSE SETTERS
WOMEN:
Run 1: Christian Schwaiger (GER).
Schwaiger is the German women's technical coach after spending years as the men's Great Britain tech coach. Taking care of the Baxter boys, et al. As a course setter, I have only seen him set in person in training venues, but he tends not to get too caught up in novelties and funky combos. As well, he has some good slalom skiers in Maria and Susanne Riesch and Fanny Chmelar. All 3 are very tall, big girls. I would assume he is going to set to their strength, which would be the slightly bigger turn. It is really good news that Christian is setting in Levi for all 3 of these girls as they all have good histories on the hill. It gives them an excellent opportunity to be competitive on run 1 and build confidence. The last SL Christian set was in Aspen last season and the run was won by Nicole Hosp (AUT). That will not happen again as she tore her ACL in Soelden and is gone for the season. She is making noise about returning in Garmisch at the FIS World Cup Finals but that statement does not make sense in so many ways.
Run 2: Phillippe Willman (FRA)
While I know very little about Phillippe's course setting skills, I have spoken to a few women's FIS World Cup coaches about him and they all feel confident he will set a nice course. His history by the numbers is that he hits the minimum turns often. However, even if he sets 13 meters the whole way in Levi, he will still likely be over the absolute minimum of 51. Again, this is all good news for the bigger girls. Higher speed, less foot speed is necessary, hit the gates harder at higher speed so "size does matter." Both setters and the hill lean toward defending Levi champ Lindsey Vonn, Maria Riesch and the other Garmisch giants and Sandrine Aubert (FRA). The last time Phillippe set was in Ofterschwang, Germany. The race was won by Aubert, his own athlete. The run was won by Alexandra Daum (AUT). Hailey Duke of Boise, Idaho was 3rd and Marie-Michelle Gagnon was also in the mix, giving the Canadian camp some hope going into Levi.
MEN:
Run 1: Manfred Widauer (GER)
Manfred is new on the scene as a course setter. He was the German assistant tech coach last year and is now the Head Coach of the German Tech group. Felix Neureuther, Stefan Kogler and maybe even Dominik Stehle look to take advantage of this fact. Kogler and Stehle both got 2nd runs last season at Levi, and given the fact that they are really the only people who have skied Manfred's sets, they have an advantage. The Germans did train with the Americans in Coronet Peak, NZ this past summer so Ted, Jimmy Cochran and company have likely run some of his stuff too. According to the USA coaches there was nothing out of the ordinary or "freaky" going on with his setting. In my own experience, the first World Cup slalom set I made was very basic. With all the distraction of people measuring and Hans and Guenther telling you what to do, you tend to default to basics on your first World Cup set. Also, with little concern with making minimum turns, I expect something solid and basic with plenty of distance. Close racing for sure.
Run 2: Christian Hoeflehner (AUT)
Now this is a guy I know a lot about. He has been with the World Cup SL guys in Austria off and on since 2002. We came into the World Cup together and spent a lot of time together those first years when team USA and the Austrians were official training partners. Our friendship did not dissolve when the teams ended the agreement nor when he was promoted to Head Slalom coach. He is responsible for the dominance of the Austrian slalom machine. Herbst, Hirscher, Pranger, Raich, Matt. Watch out for a strong run 2 push out of these guys. Historically, "Hoefi" has liked to set out past 11 meters. The turn count of 63 last year sounds like 11 meters to me. Even though Herbst and Pranger are better at tighter courses, this hill just does not run well at 10 meters and Hoefi is aware of the aesthetics of World Cup racing. It has to play well on TV. He wants the product to look good and the boys to look good on television back in Austria. Last year, Grange won the run Hoefi set, Ligety was 2nd and Bode was 3rd, just .01 behind Ted. JB won the race. Grange also won a Super-Combi slalom run set by Hoeflehner. Huh...
As an aside, I doubt much if Bode is ready for this race and there is a persistent but yet unconfirmed rumor that his knee is bothersome and he will not start in Levi.